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[Video] The Election and the Missing Error Bars on COVID and Flu Death Numbers

The Election and the Missing Error Bars on COVID and Flu Death Numbers

A video on the grossly contradictory CDC FluView pneumonia and influenza death numbers, implied to be influenza virus death numbers, and the CDC Leading causes of death report pneumonia and influenza death numbers, which differ by over a factor of THREE, the lack of reported error bars on the CDC flu and COVID death number counts, required by standard scientific practice, and the effect of this on the US Presidential election.

The FluView web site claims six to ten percent of all deaths are pneumonia and influenza in a prominently displayed graphic. However, the Leading Causes of Death report claims about two percent of deaths are caused by pneumonia and influenza, less than one third of the percentages reported on the FluView web site. No error bars are reported on these numbers.

Looking at the numbers behind the percentages. The CDC uses two grossly contradictory numbers of annual deaths from pneumonia and influenza: about 55,000 in the annual leading causes of the death report and about 188,000 in National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data used on the FluView web site to report the percentage of deaths each week due to pneumonia and influenza. These differ by a factor of OVER THREE. The larger FluView number is comparable to the current cumulative total COVID-19 deaths in the United States frequently cited by the media and compared to a smaller number of about 40,000 “flu deaths.”

O Use of the flu death numbers in popular reporting on COVID and the election, usually lacking any error bars, is discussed.

o The CDC’s mysterious “flu death” mathematical model — a theory — assigning about 50,000 deaths per year to the influenza virus, mostly pneumonia deaths that lack a laboratory confirmed influenza infection, and the usually unreported errors on the output of this model is discussed.

o Evidence of large uncertainties in the assignment of cause of death by doctors, coroners and others is discussed. The lack of proper error bars due to this on both reported “flu death” numbers and COVID death numbers.

o Specific reasons why the CDC would likely be biased against President Trump due to his criticism of vaccine safety and historical statements on the possible role of childhood vaccines promoted by the CDC in causing autism are discussed.

Presentation Slides in Adobe Acrobat PDF Format:

The-Election-and-the-Missing-Error-Bars-on-COVID-and-Flu-Death-NumbersDownload

References:

US CDC Disease Burden of Influenza (Mathematical Model of “Flu Deaths”)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

The most recent raw data appears to still be accessible on the FluView Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality web page:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm (see Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Section)

FluView NCHS Raw Data File: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData34.csv

Leading Causes of Death Full Report: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf

See Table C: Deaths and percentage of total deaths for the 10 leading causes of death: United States, 2016 and 2017 (Page 9 of PDF)

Line item 8 “Influenza and pneumonia” lists 55,672 deaths in 2017

My Article “The Mathematics of Autism” at the Math Blog: https://mathblog.com/the-mathematics-of-autism/

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How Reliable are the US Centers for Disease Controls’ Death Numbers?

How Reliable are the US Centers for Disease Control’s Death Numbers

A short video showing the contradictory pneumonia and influenza death numbers on the CDC web site and official documents. The FluView web site claims six to ten percent of all deaths are due to pneumonia and influenza in a prominently displayed graphic. However, the Leading Causes of Death report claims about two percent of deaths are caused by pneumonia and influenza, less than one third of the percentages reported on the FluView web site. Detailed references are provided below.

Looking at the numbers behind the percentages. The CDC uses two grossly contradictory numbers of annual deaths from pneumonia and influenza: about 55,000 in the annual leading causes of the death report and about 188,000 in National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data used on the FluView web site to report the percentage of deaths each week due to pneumonia and influenza. These differ by a factor of OVER THREE. The larger FluView number is comparable to the current cumulative total COVID-19 deaths in the United States.

The most recent raw data appears to still be accessible on the FluView Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality web page:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm (see Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Section)

CDC FluView Pneumonia and Influenza Section on October 14, 2020 (Over Six Percent of Deaths Due to Pneumonia and Influenza)

FluView NCHS Raw Data File: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData34.csv

Leading Causes of Death Full Report: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf

See Table C: Deaths and percentage of total deaths for the 10 leading causes of death: United States, 2016 and 2017 (Page 9 of PDF)

Line item 8 “Influenza and pneumonia” lists 55,672 deaths in 2017

Leading Causes of Death Table C for 2017 (Note the line item “Influenza and pneumonia” with only 2.0 percent of deaths due to pneumonia and influenza)

The most likely reason for the gross discrepancy between the FluView percentages and death numbers and the leading causes of death is that the FluView graphic counts any death certificate with pneumonia or influenza listed as “a cause of death.” Death certificates often list multiple causes of death. The leading causes of death report appears to list only death certificates that list pneumonia or influenza as the “underlying cause of death,” which may be a rather arbitrary assignment of causation to a single cause of death. While the fine print seems to say this, it is ambiguous.

Consequentially, the CDC death numbers can vary enormously depending on the definition of cause of death — or some other reason that is not clearly documented in the CDC documents. This is discussed further in the associated video.

A significant question is what fraction of the numbers, especially on the FluView web site, are due to opportunistic infections where the immune system or general health is so weakened by some other cause such as chemotherapy, AIDS, cancer, the aging process etc. that death is likely or inevitable and multiple infections may be present. The likely purpose of the FluView graphic and numbers is to frighten the public into purchasing the flu vaccine — which is unlikely to work for patients whose immune system weakens or fails.

Peter Doshi’s Critiques of US Flu Death Numbers

Are US flu death figures more PR than science? British Medical Journal (2005)

https://www.bmj.com/content/331/7529/1412

Influenza : a study of contemporary medical politics Ph.D. Dissertation, MIT (2011)

https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/69811

Influenza: marketing vaccine by marketing disease, British Medical Journal (2013)

https://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f3037

References on the Influenza Vaccine

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-shots-may-not-protect-the-elderly-or-the-very-young/

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/486407

February 14, 2005


Impact of Influenza Vaccination on Seasonal Mortality in the US Elderly Population
Lone Simonsen, PhD; Thomas A. Reichert, MD, PhD; Cecile Viboud, PhD; et al William C. Blackwelder, PhD; Robert J. Taylor, PhD; Mark A. Miller, MD
Arch Intern Med. 2005;165(3):265-272. doi:10.1001/archinte.165.3.265

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(11)70295-X/fulltext

The Lancet Infectious Diseases

Articles| Volume 12, ISSUE 1, P36-44, January 01, 2012
Efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Prof Michael T Osterholm, PhD
Nicholas S Kelley, PhD
Prof Alfred Sommer, MD
Edward A Belongia, MD

Published:October 26, 2011DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(11)70295-X

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John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

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[Video/Article] The CDC’s Grossly Contradictory Death Numbers

The CDC’s Grossly Contradictory Death Numbers (Click on Image to View the Video)

The CDC uses two grossly contradictory numbers of annual deaths from pneumonia and influenza: about 55,000 in the annual leading causes of the death report and about 188,000 in National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data used on the FluView web site to report the percentage of deaths each week due to pneumonia and influenza. These differ by a factor of OVER THREE. The larger FluView number is comparable to the current cumulative total COVID-19 deaths in the United States (Aug 30, 2020).

Since it is generally agreed that lockdowns and quarantines are not justified for a disease similar to typical annual pneumonia and influenza deaths, the reasons for this gross contradiction in the two annual death numbers should be resolved. Is it correct to compare the COVID-19 death numbers to the FluView number, the leading causes of death number, or some other number and, if so, exactly why and how?

Video Transcript: The CDC uses two grossly contradictory numbers of annual deaths from pneumonia and influenza: about 55,000 in the annual leading causes of the death report and about 188,000 in National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data used on the FluView web site to report the percentage of deaths each week due to pneumonia and influenza. These differ by a factor of OVER THREE.

This is the leading causes of death report for 2017 on the CDC web site. Table C: Deaths and percentage of total deaths for the 10 leading causes of death: United States, 2016 and 2017 on Page Nine. Note line item number 8 “pneumonia and influenza” with 55,672 deaths in 2017. Also note 2,813,503 deaths from all causes in 2017.

This is the CDC FluView web site. The red line purports to be the percentage of weekly deaths caused by pneumonia and influenza. It varies seasonally and averages about six percent over a year. Six percent of the 2,813,503 deaths in 2017 is 168,810 deaths, over three times the 55,672 deaths in the leading causes of death report.

The actual numbers are available here in data files from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). These give about 188,000 deaths from pneumonia and influenza in 2017. The death numbers for other years are quite similar.

To be clear, the leading causes of deaths report gives 55,672 deaths from pneumonia and influenza in 2017.

The average six percent of deaths from the FluView Graph means about 170,000 deaths must have been due to pneumonia and influenza — NOT 55,000. In fact, the raw data from the NCHS on the sites gives just about 188,000 deaths due to pneumonia and influenza in 2017, over THREE TIMES the number of deaths in the leading causes of death report and the widely quoted estimated deaths from flu from the CDC.

This means the number of pneumonia and influenza deaths must be highly arbitrary, dependent on unstated definitions, or there are gross counting errors. The larger FluView number of 188,000 is comparable to the current total of COVID-19 deaths in the US which is often compared to a smaller number of flu deaths each year similar to the leading causes of deaths number of 55,000.

Since it is generally agreed that lockdowns and quarantines are not justified for a disease similar to typical annual pneumonia and influenza deaths, the reasons for this gross contradiction in the two annual death numbers should be resolved. Is it correct to compare the COVID-19 death numbers to the FluView number, the leading causes of death number, or some other number and, if so, exactly why and how?

The most recent raw data appears to still be accessible on the FluView Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality web page:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm (see Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Section)

FluView NCHS Raw Data File: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData34.csv

Leading Causes of Death Full Report: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf

See Table C: Deaths and percentage of total deaths for the 10 leading causes of death: United States, 2016 and 2017 (Page 9 of PDF)

Line item 8 “Influenza and pneumonia” lists 55,672 deaths in 2017

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About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

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[Video] Censored Search Demo

Censored Search Demo (August 11, 2020)

Short demo of the censored search web site and service, a search engine for sites censored, banned, shadow-banned, or otherwise deprecated by the advertising funded mainstream media cartel that seems to include Google, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other major media organizations.

Censored Search: https://censored-search.com/

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[Video/Presentation] Eugenics and Modern Statistics

Eugenics and Modern Statistics

A short video about the central role of the eugenics movement in the development of modern statistics by Karl Pearson, Ronald Fisher, and their colleagues.

Adobe Acrobat PDF Presentation: http://www.mathematical-software.com/Eugenics_and_Modern_Statistics_Presentation.pdf

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About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

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[Video] COVID-19 and the Scientific Uncertainty Excuse for Bad Science

COVID-19 and the Scientific Uncertainty Excuse for Bad Science

This video debunks the scientific uncertainty excuse for bad science where scientists make extremely confident statements, usually without error bars or implying negligible errors or uncertainty, which prove false and then cite the uncertainty of bleeding edge science, often ridiculing critics, as an excuse for their overconfident and wrong statements. There have been many examples of this practice in the coronavirus COVID-19 crisis.

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About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

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Official COVID-19 Deaths for Arizona as of July 15, 2020

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the population of Arizona (July 1, 2020) as 7,278,717.

(C) 2020 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

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Taiwan’s Improbable COVID-19 Daily Death Numbers as of July 15, 2020

Taiwan has reported extremely hard to believe COVID-19 death numbers with a total of seven (7) deaths. This in a country just off the coast of China with close ties to China (Foxconn, the giant manufacturer of iPhones and other popular gadgets is actually a Taiwanese company, for example).

It is worth recalling that huge numbers of (mostly elderly) people die from influenza and pneumonia each year. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) attributed 55,672 deaths in 2017 to pneumonia and influenza in the leading causes of deaths report while statistics on the CDC’s FluView web site actually attribute just over 188,000 deaths in 2017 to pneumonia and influenza, a difference of over three times — and a number that still exceeds the total reported number of deaths (135,991) from COVID-19 in the United States as of July 15, 2020. Thus it is very unclear how many people die from pneumonia and influenza in the United States — never mind Taiwan or other nations.

Total COVID-19 Deaths in United States as of July 15, 2020 (Screenshot)

Again, the current cumulative total of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) deaths in the United States according to the CDC is 135,991 which is substantially less than the just over 188,000 deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza in 2017 according to the CDC’s FluView web site.

In the absence of testing, COVID-19 deaths would probably be classified as pneumonia cases.

Links: For example, an NCHS data file from the FluView web site with the just over 188,000 deaths from pneumonia and influenza is: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData14.csv

The weekly pneumonia and influenza deaths page/section is: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

The FluView sub-page is: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

The Final Deaths Report for 2017 is: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf

See Table B on page six(6) with the leading causes of death. See item 8 “influenza and pneumonia” giving 55,672 deaths from “influenza and pneumonia.”

(C) 2020 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

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COVID-19 Daily Deaths in Japan as of July 15, 2020

Daily Deaths from Covid-19 in Japan (Worldometer, July 15, 2020)

Despite geographical proximity and close ties to China, Japan, which never locked down has had remarkably few deaths attributed to COVID-19. Unlike Sweden, Japan’s de facto no-lockdown policy has received little attention in the United States “mainstream media.”

(C) 2020 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

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Official California State COVID-19 Death Numbers on July 15, 2020

Official COVID-19 Death Numbers for California (USA) on July 15, 2020 (Screenshot)
Official COVID-19 Testing (July 15, 2020 Screenshot)

Who is getting infected with COVID-19?

The distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases reveals significant disparities within California’s overall racial and ethnic demographics, with Latino and Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander groups having a disproportionate share of cases relative to their share of the population. Structural racism, poverty and the increased likelihood of having underlying conditions, such as heart disease and asthma, are likely to contribute to this disparity.

From the official State of California COVID-19 update web page (https://update.covid19.ca.gov/) on July 15, 2020

In Santa Clara County, California health authorities initially exempted construction projects where large numbers of workers labor closely together including luxury apartment complexes in densely populated neighborhoods. The vast majority of these construction workers in California are Latino and obviously do not have the option to “work from home.” After widespread outcry in Santa Clara County and the rest of the San Francisco Bay Area, these projects were stopped for a few weeks and then resumed in early May and continue unabated at present despite the fears of a “second wave.”

As with the Black Lives Matter protests and riots, the issue is primarily spreading the disease to vulnerable parents and grand-parents as construction workers tend to be younger and in good health.

(C) 2020 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).