Do we want public health officials to report facts and uncertainties transparently? Or do we want them to shape information to influence the public to take specific actions?
A good summary and discussion of the shifting and sometimes contradictory official claims from Anthony Fauci, the CDC, and other authorities about masks, herd immunity, and other key COVID-19 pandemic topics.
(C) 2021 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
A brief followup to my article on the rationality of conspiracy theories.
A high fraction of events where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used to stigmatize suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are murders such as the assassination of President Kennedy or possible murders such as the suspicious “suicide” of Jeffrey Epstein. According to official FBI statistics about 14.7 percent of murders in 2019 were committed by multiple offenders, the common usage meaning of conspiracy. About twenty-seven (27) percent of murders in 2019, almost one third, were unsolved. Unsolved murders tend to be gang violence/organized crime murders, that is conspiracies that could not be proven.
FBI Murders by Offender Type in 2019
Some Murder Conspiracy Charges and Convictions from a DuckDuckGo search on August 29, 2021
10 charged with murder, conspiracy in fatal shooting of 12-year-old Todriana Peters
BY RAMON ANTONIO VARGAS | Staff writer Published Aug 26, 2021 at 4:01 pm | Updated Aug 26, 2021 at 4:55 pm
Less than three months after a hail of bullets outside a graduation party cut down a 12-year-old girl and wounded two others, Orleans Parish prosecutors have filed felony charges against 10 men suspected of having a hand in the deadly Memorial Day weekend ambush.
Bronx Man Convicted Of Murder, Robbery, And Drug Trafficking Offenses
Audrey Strauss, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced that a jury returned a guilty verdict Friday against KASHEEN SAMUELS, a/k/a “Kash,” a/k/a “JR,” on five counts, including charges relating to the felony murder of Andrew Torres during an armed robbery, as well as other charges relating to robbery, robbery conspiracy, and narcotics conspiracy. U.S. District Judge Edgardo Ramos presided over the 9-day trial.
Man Convicted in Murder Linked to Mexican Mafia That San Diego Sheriff Helped Probe
by City News Service July 2, 2021
A jury has convicted a 24-year-old man for his role in the killing of a drug dealer in Placentia, an attack allegedly ordered by the head of a branch of the Mexican Mafia.
The 2017 fatal shooting, which San Diego County Sheriff’s investigators helped probe, resulted in the death of Robert Rios, 35.
Augustine Velazquez was convicted of murder, conspiracy, burglary and attempted robbery Wednesday in the killing.
Two New Jersey mobsters trying to overturn 1989 conviction for John Gotti murder plot By DiMaiolo Santolo May 17, 2021
Two New Jersey mobsters trying to overturn 1989 conviction for John Gotti murder plot
Two aging New Jersey mobsters, who federal judges have denied to release from prison during the coronavirus pandemic, are now alleging their decades-old convictions for plotting to murder John Gotti and ordering the hit on a New York businessman should be overturned.
Attorneys for Louis “Bobby” Manna and Richard DeSciscio, who have both been incarcerated since 1989, said they filed motions in federal court this week outlining how cases that put the two members of the Genovese Crime Family behind bars was full of prosecutorial misconduct.
Long-Time Leader of Violent Grape Street Crips Street Gang and Two Members Convicted of Racketeering Conspiracy Leader’s Orders Resulted in Four Murders and an Attempted Murder
NEWARK, N.J. – Three members of the New Jersey set of the violent street gang “Grape Street Crips” – including its long-time leader – were convicted by a federal jury today of racketeering conspiracy and a host of murders, shootings, and drug trafficking crimes, U.S. Attorney Craig Carpenito, FBI Special Agent in Charge Gregory W. Ehrie and DEA Special Agent in Charge Valerie A. Nickerson announced.
The leader of the enterprise, Corey Hamlet, a/k/a “C-Blaze,” a/k/a “Blaze,” a/k/a “Blizzie,” a/k/a “Castor Troy,” 41, of Belleville, New Jersey; and associates Tony Phillips, a/k/a “Blue,” 27, of Newark; and Ahmad Manley, a/k/a “Fresh,” a/k/a “Moddi G,” 32, of Summit, New Jersey, were convicted following a two-month trial before U.S. District Judge Madeline Cox Arleo in Newark federal court. The jury deliberated for four days before returning the verdicts. (A chart outlining the counts per defendant and maximum potential penalties is attached below.)
Yonkers Gang Leader Convicted in Federal Court of Racketeering Charges, Murder, Conspiracy to Murder, Attempted Murder, Narcotics, and Firearms Offenses U.S. Attorney’s Office July 01, 2013
Southern District of New York (212) 637-2600
Preet Bharara, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced that Steven Knowles, 25, was convicted today in White Plains of various racketeering charges, murder, conspiracy to murder, attempted murder, narcotics conspiracy, and firearms offenses following a four-week jury trial before the U.S. District Judge Kenneth M Karas. The jury convicted Knowles of charges arising out of his involvement, from 2000 through 2013, in the criminal activities of the Elm Street Wolves gang (the Wolves)—a violent street gang that was involved in drug trafficking and multiple acts of violence, including murder and attempted murder, in Yonkers, New York.
Court affirms conviction of Pagan biker who helped plot radio host’s murder Updated: Apr. 27, 2021, 12:39 a.m. | Published: Apr. 26, 2021, 10:05 p.m.
The New Jersey Superior Court Appellate Division affirmed the the 2018 conviction of a Pagan biker who plotted the murder of popular radio host April Kauffman in order to protect a pill-dealing scheme he had set up with her husband, authorities said.
Three judges handed down the ruling on April 20 that the trial of Ferdinand ‘Freddy’ Augello, 65, of Petersburg, was fair and impartial, the Atlantic County Prosecutor’s Office announced Monday.
Augello was found guilty on Oct. 2, 2018 of murder, murder conspiracy, racketeering and drug charges after only a few hours of jury deliberations.
Fourteen Alleged Members of “Babiiez” Gang Charged in 81-Count Conspiracy Indictment That Includes 11 Shootings Flatbush-based Gang is Alleged Subset of Insane Crip Gangsta Nine Handguns Were Recovered During the Course of the Investigation
Brooklyn District Attorney Eric Gonzalez, together with New York City Police Commissioner Dermot Shea, today announced that 14 alleged members of the Babiiez street gang are variously charged in an 81-count indictment with conspiracy to commit murder, possess weapons and related charges. The indictment includes charges related to 11 shootings that resulted in eight victims – six of whom were alleged rival gang members and two men who were not rivals.
These are a few examples of arguably solved murders committed by conspiracies.
(C) 2021 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
The belief common among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational is demonstrably false.
Subscribe to our free Weekly Newsletter for articles and videos on practical mathematics, Internet Censorship, ways to fight back against censorship, and other topics by sending an email to: subscribe [at] mathematical-software.com
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
The belief common among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational is demonstrably false.
Merriam Webster defines conspiracy as “the act of conspiring together” and conspiring as “to join in a secret agreement to do an unlawful or wrongful act or an act which becomes unlawful as a result of the secret agreement.” The dictionary gives a range of word meanings for “theory” including “a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation” which comes closest to the way “theory” is used in the phrase “conspiracy theory.”
The phrase “conspiracy theory” is used most often to mean “totally crazy conspiracy theory” or “conspiracy theory highly contradicted by the evidence” instead of the dictionary meaning of “conspiracy theory.” The phrase is often paired with “conspiracy theorist” and assertions that the conspiracy theory has been “debunked.” It is sometimes paired with the phrases “denier,” “denialism,” and “pseudoscience.” For example, “COVID denier” or “AIDS denier.”
“Conspiracy theory” is usually invoked to attack theories, evidence of misconduct, evidence of conflicts of interests, and even evidence of simple mistakes by authority figures in the group or groups — ethnic, professional, political, social — that the author identifies with or belongs to. In some case the author or authors using the phrase “conspiracy theory” are the subjects of the suspicions or evidence: https://thebulletin.org/2021/08/how-covid-19s-origins-were-obscured-by-the-east-and-the-west/.
“Conspiracy theory” is often invoked in discussions of murders or possible murders (suspicious “suicides” such as Jeffrey Epstein, accidents etc.) such as the assassination of President Kennedy or mass killings with actual or potential large scale political or economic consequences such as the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. A high percentage of “conspiracy theories” involve assassinations, mass killings, and other murders or possible murders. These include the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963, his brother Robert Kennedy in 1968, Martin Luther King in 1968, Malcolm X in 1965, US Senator Huey Long in 1934, the mysterious crash of TWA Flight 800 in 1996, the Columbine mass school shooting in 1999, the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the anthrax attacks just after the September 11 attacks in 2001 blamed on Bruce Ivins, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Conspiracy theory” is often paired with the explicit or implicit argument that “someone would have talked” and that an actual conspiracy could not keep its activities sufficiently secret to avoid prosecution or successfully organize a group, often implied to be large, of people covertly.
If two or more persons conspire either to commit any offense against the United States, or to defraud the United States, or any agency thereof in any manner or for any purpose, and one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy, each shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.
If, however, the offense, the commission of which is the object of the conspiracy, is a misdemeanor only, the punishment for such conspiracy shall not exceed the maximum punishment provided for such misdemeanor.
Some recent conspiracy convictions found with the DuckDuckGo search engine on August 23, 2021:
The US Federal Bureau of Investigation’s homicide statistics for 2019 attribute 14.7 percent of the total 13,927 murders that year to “multiple offenders,” meaning a conspiracy in common usage even if the case does not meet the legal definition of conspiracy or conspiracy was not charged for some other reason.
The same table attributes 27.8% of these murders to an unknown offender or offenders. This is particulary significant because a high proportion of unsolved murders in the United States are attributed to “gang violence” or “organized crime,” meaning a conspiracy in common usage.
UPDATE: August 29, 2021
See, for example:
Chen, Elsa Y. “Victim and Witness Intimidation.” Encyclopedia of Race and Crime. Editors Helen Taylor Greene and Shaun L. Gabbidon. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications (2009)
Community-wide implicit victim and witness intimidation has become particularly severe and widespread in neighborhoods dominated by gangs and drugs, including many predominantly African American and Latina/o inner-city areas. Asian gangs also engage in intimidation. A well-known example of implicit intimidation is a grassroots campaign known as “Stop Snitchin’,” which began in Baltimore around 2004 and quickly spread to other urban areas by several means, including CDs and DVDs, websites, T -shirts, and rap lyrics. The movement’s purpose is to urge community members not to cooperate with criminal justice authorities, and to remind them that “snitches wear stitches.” Gang members have appeared in courtrooms wearing Stop Snitchin’ T -shirts, provoking efforts to ban the shirts by judges and political officials. The success of the Stop Snitchin’ movement can be attributed in part to some community members’ anger regarding the high rate of incarceration among minority men, frustration over criminal justice authorities’ use of informants from the community and jails or prisons to facilitate the prosecution and incarceration process, and general mistrust of law enforcement officials, who often do not provide adequate protection for those who do cooperate and sometimes reward unreliable informants with leniency in prosecution or sentencing. The Stop Snitchin’ mantra is redolent of the Italian Mafia’s centuries- old code known as omerta, an oath of silence prohibiting cooperation with the authorities under any circumstances.
The culture and attitudes surrounding rap and hip hop music have perpetuated the practice of victim and witness intimidation and the implicit code of silence . Some well-known rap artists have refused to cooperate in criminal cases in which they or their friends or members of their entourages were victims or suspects. Other popular rappers have produced songs urging listeners not to speak with the police. The murders of several rap and hip hop stars, including Tupac Shakur, the Notorious B.I.G., and Jam Master Jay from Run D.M.C., remain unsolved because of witnesses’ unwillingness to violate the “code of the street” by speaking to the police or testifying in court.
END UPDATE
“Over 1,000 victims, 126 dead, just 2 convictions: 6 years of mass shootings in Chicago” By Tom Schuba and Andy Grimm, August 2, 201, Chicago Sun Times
Online searches for gang violence and unsolved murders often turn up articles and official reports using the phrases “gun violence” and emphasizing the race of both victims and suspected perpetrators of unsolved murders, usually in so-called “inner city” neighborhoods. Nonetheless careful reading show these articles and reports are talking about unsolved gang murders often involving drugs or other illegal activities: criminal conspiracies.
Some Famous (or Infamous) Unsolved “Organized Crime” Murders
Arnold Rothstein — November 6, 1928 — reputed prohibition era mob boss and “mentor” of Charles “Lucky” Luciano, Meyer Lanksy, and other famous mobsters. Benjamin “Bugsy” Siegel — June 20, 1947 — close associate of Lucky Luciano and Meyer Lansky Albert Anastasia — October 25, 1957 — alleged mob boss and head of “Murder Inc.” “Sam” Giancana — June 19, 1975 — alleged second in command of the Chicago Mob “Johnny” Roselli — August 9, 1976 — alleged top figure in the Chicago Mob Jimmy Hoffa — Teamsters Union Boss, disappeared July 30, 1975, declared dead July 30, 1982 John Favara — disappeared July 28, 1980, declared dead 1983, neighbor who disappeared after a car accident that killed mob boss John Gotti’s 12 year old son Frank Gotti. Favara was the driver of the car.
The history of organized crime in the United States is replete with many more unsolved murders and disappearances. In fact, people often don’t talk — at least not under oath in a court of law — and innocent witnesses often keep silent fearing retaliation from organized crime groups — conspiracies. Circumstantial evidence, suspicions, and rumors abound as is the case with murders such as the assassination of President Kennedy where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is invoked to ridicule and stigmatize those same sort of circumstantial evidence, suspicions, and rumors.
The empirical data from murder statistics and the history of murders is that criminal conspiracies are common — at least fourteen (14) percent of murders — and often escape successful prosecution. A high fraction of events where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used to ridicule and stigmatize suspicions or even evidence of a conspiracy are also murders or possible murders: political assassinations, terrorists incidents, mass killings, suspicious accidents and suicides.
Are there high level international conspiracies?
High level international criminal conspiracies involving seemingly independent and even competing groups such as companies have been demonstrated in court in a number of cases.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Pfizer (yes the COVID vaccine company), and several other companies in Japan and Korea engaged in an illegal criminal conspiracy to fix the price of citric acid — a key ingredient of Coca-Cola and other sodas — and other food additives such as lysine in the 1990’s, probably beginning in the 1980’s or earlier. At this time, ADM and Pfizer dominated world production and sales of citric acid, an important and lucrative product due to its key rol in Coca-Cola and other sodas.
“Archer Executive Testifies to Fixing Citric Acid Prices” by Kurt Eichenwald, New York Times, August 13, 1998
“The Informant: A True Story” by Kurt Eichenwald, Crown, October 15, 2001
Rats in the Grain: The Dirty Tricks and Trials of Archer Daniels Midland, the Supermarket to the World, by James B. Lieber, Basic Books, January 10, 2002
Antitrust investigations have demonstrated several cases of international price fixing cartels for various products. Some price fixing arrangements are open agreements such as OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and the proration of oil production in Texas by the Texas Railroad Commission. https://rrc.texas.gov/about-us/rrc-history/
Governments can and do provide cover, sanction, and legitimacy for price fixing arrangements that would be illegal and criminal otherwise.
Do Cartels Get Away with Illegal Price Fixing Agreements?
Some would argue that because ADM, Pfizer, and the other conspirators were caught, they did not get away with the crime and this somehow proves no one is able to get away with a criminal conspiracy. This, of course, is demonstrably not true for unsolved murders. In contrast to murders, where the crime is usually clear due to a dead body and signs of violence, proving a rise in prices is a crime — is due to a criminal conspiracy is inherently difficult.
There are a number of cases of mysterious increases in the price of various products and services, circumstantial evidence of price fixing and collusion as defined in antitrust law. A notable recent example is the remarkable increase in the price of insulin, a product produced in vats using well established genetically engineered bacteria. There is no obvious shortage of a key ingredient or other explanation.
Conspiracy theories are rational in many cases. Historical data on unsolved murders demonstrates that proving a conspiracy beyond a reasonable doubt is difficult however. Criminal conspiracies are NOT like laboratory experiments or astronomical observations. The belief common among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational is demonstrably false.
(C) 2021 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
Short video on Afghanistan, the abiogenic oil hypothesis, and the remarkable failure of the US to build a natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean despite spending at least one trillion dollars and twenty (20) years of military occupation of the country — a pipeline that would be a win win proposition for just about everyone! Incompetence or a hidden agenda to boost world energy prices?
Subscribe to our free Weekly Newsletter for articles and videos on practical mathematics, Internet Censorship, ways to fight back against censorship, and other topics by sending an email to: subscribe [at] mathematical-software.com
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
The Provincetown, Massachusetts (Cape Cod, Barnstable County) COVID-19 outbreak does NOT prove that the COVID-19 vaccines are working as widely claimed in the mainstream media. (See the CDC Report “Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings — Barnstable County, Massachusetts,” https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7031e2-H.pdf)
Subscribe to our free Weekly Newsletter for articles and videos on practical mathematics, Internet Censorship, ways to fight back against censorship, and other topics by sending an email to: subscribe [at] mathematical-software.com
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
The Provincetown, Massachusetts (Cape Cod, Barnstable County) COVID-19 outbreak does NOT prove that the COVID-19 vaccines are working as widely claimed in the mainstream media. (See the CDC Report “Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings — Barnstable County, Massachusetts,” https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7031e2-H.pdf)
Media reports have often claimed that because no deaths were reported during the outbreak this proves the COVID-19 vaccines work. These media reports often make a comparison to deaths in January of 2021 when widespread vaccination began without actually citing or discussing estimates of the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19, let alone discussing the seasonality of the infection fatality rate of respiratory diseases.
Note that the infection fatality rate (IFR) of a disease is different from the case fatality rate (CFR) often reported in the mass media, sometimes as several percent for COVID-19 cases. The Case Fatality Rate is generally much larger than the infection fatality rate for many diseases and for COVID-19. Even medical experts who should know better mistakenly conflate CFR and IFR. IFR includes unreported and asymptomatic “cases” whereas CFR does not, hence the lower rate.
Both CFR and IFR can be difficult to compute, estimate, and compare because of varying definitions of “cases” and properly identifying the number of unreported cases with actual symptoms and asymptomatic infections. The COVID-19 pandemic has involved rapidly changing case definitions and poorly validated tests (PCR, antigen, antibody, and even other experimental tests).
Because the CDC was able to identify asymptomatic cases during the Provincetown outbreak, the IFR should be used to evaluate the published data, although the CDC may have missed some, possibly many asymptomatic cases.
Overall, 274 (79%) vaccinated patients with breakthrough infection were symptomatic.
CDC Report, Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings — Barnstable County, Massachusetts, July 2021, Page 1
Similar claims that the outbreak proves the vaccines work have been made regarding the COVID-19 outbreak in heavily vaccinated Israel, so far involving a large fraction of vaccinated persons — often reported as 95% of the COVID-19 cases in Israel.
The CDC Provincetown, Massachusetts (Barnstable County, Cape Cod) data is analyzed in detail below.
According to the CDC report, 469 Massachusetts residents were identified with COVID-19 attributed to attending public events in “a town in Barnstable County, Massachusetts.” This is Provincetown on Cape Cod (Barnstable County, MA is Cape Cod). Of these, 346 (about 74 %) had been fully vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines: both shots of the Moderna vaccine, both shots of the Pfizer vaccine, and the one shot J&J vaccine at least 14 days prior to infection with COVID-19. One-hundred and twenty-three (about 26 %) were unvaccinated. According to the CDC report, 69% of Massachusetts residents are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Four fully vaccinated persons were hospitalized and only one unvaccinated person was hospitalized.
The ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated infected persons (74%) is statistically indistinguishable from the 69% of vaccinated persons in Massachusetts. The most straightforward interpretation of this ratio is that the vaccine failed completely. If the vaccine substantially reduced the risk of infection, we would expect all or most of the cases to be in unvaccinated persons.
It is possible to explain away the ratio of infections by arguing that the vaccinated persons were overconfident, believing the media hype implying the vaccines confer full immunity (“safe and effective” repeated without qualification by most of the mass media). Hence they may have taken risks that spread the disease despite the vaccine, offsetting the benefits of the vaccine. It is clearly remarkable that this exactly offset the effect of the vaccines to produce the same ratio as the fraction of unvaccinated in the general Massachusetts population (the 69%).
The ratio of hospitalized vaccinated to unvaccinated persons (80%) is also statistically indistinguishable from the 69% of vaccinated persons in Massachusetts. The implied hospitalization rate of the vaccinated is 1.16% The implied hospitalization rate of the unvaccinated is only 0.81%. The hospitalization rates are statistically equivalent. Hospitalization is an imperfect proxy for severity of the disease. Consequently, the reported data do NOT show that the vaccines reduced the severity of the COVID-19 disease, contrary to claims by the US CDC, mainstream media, and others.
It is harder to explain away the hospitalizations, a proxy for serious COVID-19. The data gives statistically the same hospitalization rate for vaccinated and unvaccinated persons once infected. Again, however, one could argue the unvaccinated are healthier than the vaccinated to explain the absence of a preponderance of hospitalizations in the unvaccinated. In other words, very healthy persons are correctly less worried about handling a COVID-19 infection without the vaccine and refrain from taking the experimental, largely untested vaccine at this time.
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 (see — for example — https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/99/1/20-265892.pdf, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33289900/) is generally estimated as only a few tenths of a percent for “young” (under 70) healthy persons — most of this in persons over 40. The Provincetown COVID-19 outbreak involved July 4th holiday party-goers, generally a young, healthy group. Using an IFR of 0.3%, we might naively expect about 1.2 deaths on average with an uncertainty of 1 death. Hence the absence of even one death in the Provincetown data is hardly surprising and does NOT show that the vaccines are working — even without considering the seasonality of respiratory diseases.
The incidence and mortality of respiratory diseases is seasonal with more infections, cases, hospitalizations, and death in January than in July. The reasons for this pattern are not understood, although it is often attributed to spread of the diseases among school-children in the United States. The sinusoidal — pendulum-like — variation shows no sign of a step up when school opens in the fall or a step down when schools close in the spring/early summer. The pattern suggests the variation is directly or indirectly driven by the Sun.
A number of causes for the seasonality of respiratory diseases have been suggested including vitamin D — which is involved in the immune system — production by sunlight, destruction of the respiratory disease causing organisms by sunlight and specifically the UV light in sunlight, unexplained benefits of sunlight other than vitamin D production, less energy diverted to staying warm when the Sun is stronger, and lower absolute humidity during the cold winter in many regions (NOT ALL) causing longer persistence in the atmosphere of aerosol particles with viruses and sometimes bacteria. In 2020, the COVID outbreak was highly seasonal in most nations with the exception of a surge in the summer in parts of the United States, possibly associated with the George Floyd/Black Lives Matter mass protests.
In conclusion, the CDC’s Provincetown COVID-19 outbreak data does NOT show the vaccines are working — to reduce infections, reduce severity of the disease, or prevent death. The statistics for serious cases of COVID-19 in both the unvaccinated and vaccinated persons are quite small — only five persons (four fully vaccinated, one unvaccinated) hospitalized and no deaths. The lack of deaths is not surprising given the low infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19. Much larger statistics are needed to properly estimate any benefits or harms from the vaccines.
(C) 2021 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
The July 30, 2021 CDC report on an outbreak of COVID-19 (delta variant) in Barnstable County, Massachusetts (July 6-25, 2021) used to justify guidance for vaccinated persons to wear masks indoors appears to indicate the COVID vaccines failed to reduce either the rate of infection with COVID in the vaccinated or the hospitalization rate if infected, contrary to widespread statements in the mass media by public health authorities and others. Although there are some possible if improbable explanations, no explanation for this seeming contradiction appears to be present in the report.
Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings — Barnstable County, Massachusetts, July 2021 Brown et al Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report Early Release / Vol. 70 July 30, 2021 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7031e2-H.pdf
Relevant Numbers from Report:
cases of COVID-19 associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in a town in Barnstable County, Massachusetts (July 6-25, 2021) 469 vaccination coverage among eligible Massachusetts residents 69.00% cases in fully vaccinated 346 73.77% cases in unvaccinated, which may include partially vaccinated and recently vaccinated (less than 14 days since final shot) 123 26.23% number of vaccinated hospitalized 4 number of unvaccinated hospitalized 1
hospitalization rate of vaccinated infected with COVID-19 1.16% hospitalization rate of unvaccinated infected with COVID-19 0.81%
Number of cases sequenced 133 Number of cases with B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant 120 90.23%
Number of symptomatic vaccinated cases 274 Number of symptomatic unvaccinated cases ?
Subscribe to our free Weekly Newsletter for articles and videos on practical mathematics, Internet Censorship, ways to fight back against censorship, and other topics by sending an email to: subscribe [at] mathematical-software.com
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
