“Conspiracy theory” is now a shorthand for crazy, irrational conspiracy theory from a nut or nuts used to quickly dismiss all sorts of ideas including even objective facts, generally applied when the “conspiracy theory” suggests misconduct or error by authority figures in a group the “conspiracy theory” labeler identifies strongly with.
“Conspiracy theory” has broadened to included related phrases: “conspiracy theorist,” “conspiracist”, “conspiracy thinking,” and even just “conspiracy.” In recent decades it is increasingly bundled with other thought stopping pejorative phrases such as “witch hunt,” “pseudoscience,” “denialist”, or “denier”.
The shorthand pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” has expanded to include error theories that do not propose an actual conspiracy such as a laboratory leak of SARS-COV-2 at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and been used by high government officials such as Anthony Fauci and associates to stigmatize suggestions they may have made significant errors. “Conspiracy theory” has been frequently applied to the Mandela Effect and Graham Hancock’s lost civilization theories, recently expounded in the Netflix Ancient Apocalypse docuseries even though neither proposes a conspiracy.
This pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” represents a change in common usage of English that makes it difficult to either discuss or think about possible misconduct or error by groups of people, especially groups of powerful people. In this it resembles George Orwell’s fictional Newspeak in his novel 1984, a simplified English in which it is impossible to express or imagine error or misconduct by the ruling political party.
How, in fact, should we react when someone, especially authorities and experts shout “conspiracy theory” or “conspiracy theorist,” to dismiss something out of hand? Clearly one should not rely on pejorative labels such as “witch hunt,” “conspiracy theory,” “denialism,” or “pseudoscience” to dismiss alleged facts or actual conspiracy theories in the non-pejorative legal sense out of hand.
This does not depend on whether these labels were generated or centrally directed by the CIA, the Lyndon Johnson White House, the CPUSA, or any other group or real conspiracy. One needs to look at the actual facts and logic so labeled.
“Conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theorist,” and other related pejorative labels are frequently used as if to say: criminal conspiracies are essentially impossible or so rare as to be easily and quickly dismissed by any sane rational person. One in a thousand. One in a million. Even physically impossible.
The pejorative “conspiracy theory” or related labels are generally applied to theories about significant events. These events are most often assassinations, murders, or suspected murders such as the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Malcolm X, the alleged suicide of late “financier” Jeffrey Epstein and others, where the alleged or suspected conspirators are usually authority figures in the group or groups the “conspiracy theory” labeler identifies strongly with.
Event
Date(s)
Killed
Official Cause
Assassination of Senator Huey Long
Sep. 10, 1935
Huey Long, Carl Weiss
Carl Weiss acting alone, Weiss killed by Long’s bodyguards
JFK Assassination
Nov 22, 1963
John F. Kennedy, J.D. Tippit, Lee Harvey Oswald
Lee Harvey Oswald acting alone. Oswald killed by Jack Ruby acting alone.
Malcolm X Assassination
February 21, 1965
Malcolm X (born Malcolm Little)
Originally convicted: Muhammad A. Aziz (exonerated) Khalil Islam (exonerated) Thomas Hagan
Conspiracy by enemies in the Nation of Islam.
MLK Assassination
April 4, 1968
Martin Luther King
James Early Ray acting alone
RFK Assassination
June 5, 1968
Robert Francis Kennedy
Sirhan Sirhan acting alone
Oklahoma City Bombing
April 19, 1995
at least 168 people
Timothy McVeigh, Terry Nichols (Michael Fortier convicted of related offenses, but not the conspiracy, plea deal)
TWA Flight 800
July 17, 1996
230, all on board
accidentally blew up
September 11 Attacks
September 11, 2001
2,996
attributed to 19 hijackers acting on orders from Osama bin Laden
Anthrax attacks
September 18 – October 12, 2001
5 killed
Eventually blamed on researcher Bruce Ivins
Jeffrey Epstein “suicide”
August 10, 2019
1 dead
Ruled a suicide
COVID-19 Pandemic
Fall 2019 – Present
Several million worldwide
Unknown
Most Prominent “Conspiracy Theories” Involve Homicide or Possible Homicide Cases
“Conspiracy theory” labelers frequently use superficially plausible arguments backed up by no data or a single or few examples. For example, conspiracies will always or almost always fail because someone would have talked, citing for example the exposure of the Watergate burglary failure and the downfall of Richard Nixon. This would for example suggest unsolved murders by conspiracies, such as “gang” murders, “Mafia” or “organized crime” murders, or Provisional IRA murders in Northern Ireland are exceptionally rare or nonexistent (see data below).
Conspiracy Data
There are laws against criminal conspiracy and people are convicted under these laws all the time. The FBI statistics on homicides for 2019 shows that about 14.7% of “cleared” (ostensibly solved) murders in 2019 involved at least one accomplice, a conspiracy in common usage.
A review of Wikipedia’s list of US serial killers showed that 56 of 553 identified serial killers active from 1950 to 2020 had accomplices, a conspiracy in common usage. This is 10.13% of the names listed. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices. This provides a check on the FBI official numbers where the names of the killers and victims or at least forensic evidence of victims who could not be identified in some cases are available for independent review.
A review of US Presidential assassinations and plots showed that at least one of the four Presidential Assassinations (Lincoln) was clearly a conspiracy and 9-10 of 37 failed Presidential assassination attempts were conspiracies of some sort.
Unsolved Murders in United States
The FBI listed 27.8% of homicides in 2019 with an unknown offender or offenders. The rate of unsolved murders in the United States has increased substantially since the early 1960s. Police and other law enforcement officials in the United States often attribute unsolved murders to gang violence. Gangs are conspiracies in common English usage.
There is significant controversy over the fraction of unsolved murders due to gang violence. The FBI’s Supplemental Homicide Reports (SHR) generally list about 7.4 percent of unsolved homicides as gang related (categories “Gangland killing” and “Juvenile gang killings”). This usually appears to be based on the victim or victims being known to law enforcement as gang members. A survey of Wikipedia’s lists of unsolved murders both in the United States and around the world, found sixty-eight (68) out of 820 unsolved murder cases (8.29%) with notes indicating a suspected “gang,” “mafia,” or “organized crime” murder.
US CIA Murders
The US CIA declassified evidence in the 1970s strongly suggesting their involvement in the assassinations/deaths of Patrice Lumumba in the Belgian Congo (later Zaire), Dominican Republic dictator Rafael Trujillo and his son, President of South Vietnam Ngo Dinh Diem and his brother, Salvador Allende in Chile, and unsuccessful plots to kill Cuban President Fidel Castro in league with the US Mafia.
The CIA also declassified some records in the 1970s of a series of mind control research programs, usually referred to popularly as MK-ULTRA, involving many prominent scientists (Martin Orne, Louis Jolyon West, Ewan Cameron, many others) and illegal experiments on uninformed test subjects and even children. The mind control programs were kept secret for about twenty years and much remains unknown about these programs. At least one participant, CIA officer Frank Olson fell, jumped, or was thrown to his death nine days after being surreptitiously dosed with LSD.
Of the 1,186 killings that the PSNI’s Legacy Investigation Branch is assessing:
45.5% are attributed to republican paramilitaries. (loosely Irish Catholics, Communist groups)
23% are attributed to loyalist paramilitaries. (loosely English and Ulster Scots Protestants)
28.5% are attributed to the security forces. (loosely the UK British troops and intelligence groups)
For the remaining 3% of deaths, the background of those primarily responsible is unknown.
These represent still unsolved murders mostly attributed to large scale conspiratorial organizations. As with alleged unsolved gang related killings in the United States, proof is elusive. The politically charged 1972 disappearance/murder of Jean McConville, alleged to have been ordered by the Sinn Fein political party leader Gerry Adams in transcripts of “oral histories” collected by Boston College (USA) from former IRA members who claimed to have abducted and shot Jean McConville, has never been officially solved, although her body was discovered in 2004. Adams denies ever having been in the IRA, let alone being one of its leaders, or ordering the murder. (See, for example, Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland by Patrick Radden Keefe)
Unsolved Murders in Other Civil Conflicts
The conspiratorial civil conflict in Northern Ireland is unusual in taking place in a “first world,” western European “democracy.” Somewhat similar conflicts have occurred in many other nations with secretive revolutionary, quasi-governmental and governmental groups contending for power. Everything from the total number killed, number of unsolved murders, who killed whom and why, what constituted legitimate warfare versus war crimes is disputed. These include El Salvador’s civil war (1980-1992), Argentina’s “dirty war” in the 1970s and 1980s, civil conflict and war in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, civil conflict in South Africa in the 1980’s and early 1990s.
Arguably entire nations have devolved into criminal conspiracies with no rule of law, extensive secrecy and government lying to the population, and large numbers of executions including Nazi Germany, the Stalinist Soviet Union and China during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
Conclusion
It is clearly rational to suspect conspiracies including high level conspiracies in unsolved or suspicious “solved” murders. The likelihood of a conspiracy involved in an unsolved murder is probably at least 8%, simply using the fraction of unsolved murders where a “gang” or “mafia” is officially suspected by law enforcement.
(C) 2023 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
“It’s like CIA after they assassinated Kennedy in 63, they admitted in 67 they created the word ‘conspiracy theorist'”
Alex Jones on YOUR WELCOME with Michael Malice #237 (about Dec. 20, 2022)
Do you suspect conspiracies of powerful people are behind some important problems? Do you suspect President Kennedy was killed by a conspiracy? COVID-19 leaked from a gain of function lab?
Have you been dismissed, ridiculed, even angrily insulted by friends, family, or colleagues uncritically chanting the thought-stopping “conspiracy theory” label? How can you get friends, family, or colleagues to seriously consider the actual facts and logic?
A popular method is to claim that the CIA invented the pejorative label “conspiracy theorist” and/or “conspiracy theory” to counter critics of the Warren Commission Report on the assassination of President Kennedy. Several variations of this claim exist. They are derived from the book Conspiracy Theory in America (2013) by Lance deHaven-Smith which does claim this, citing a January 1967 CIA cable to overseas CIA stations declassified in the 1970s.
This claim is unproven despite the affirmative statements in the book. The evidence presented in Conspiracy Theory in America is weak at best, consisting primarily of the 1967 cable.
Contrary to claims, the phrase “conspiracy theory” was used in the modern pejorative sense occasionally in the 1940’s and 1950s, in philosopher Karl Popper’s The Open Society and its enemies (first published in 1943) and in Columbia University historian Richard Hofstadter’s Pulitzer Prize winning the Age of Reform in 1955. Popper used “conspiracy theory” as shorthand for “conspiracy theory of society,” which he ridiculed. Hofstadter used “conspiracy theory” as shorthand for his “conspiracy theory of history” which he ridiculed much the same as Popper. This language spread slowly among intellectuals and political junkies in the 40s and 50s, accelerating with the assassination of Kennedy in November 1963 for several years.
The CIA cable uses the phrases “conspiracy theories,” “conspiracy theorists,” and “conspiracy talk” each once in the cable which outlines factual and logical arguments to rebut critics of the Warren Commission.
The cable does not direct CIA stations to use the “conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theorist”, or “conspiracy talk” phrases in rebuttals, nor outlines a campaign to use the phrases as marketing slogans similar to advertising/PR campaigns such as Wendy’s Restaurant’s highly successful “Where’s the Beef?” campaign in 1984/85.
There is no spike in use of “conspiracy theory” or “conspiracy theorist” in 1967, only a moderate increase in use that started in 1964 and leveled off in 1971. The “conspiracy theory” language was used to attack both critics of the Warren Commission, Senator Barry Goldwater, his followers, and the then highly publicized John Birch Society. The pejorative label “conspiracy theorist” did not start to be used until the late 1970s, even then rarely, and took off in the late 1980s as shown in the plot above.
Claiming the CIA invented “conspiracy theorist” or “conspiracy theory” and/or citing deHaven-Smith’s book is preaching to the converted. Dismissive or hostile family, friends, and colleagues will examine the book and correctly find its claims unproven and weak at best. This will almost certainly add to their skepticism and willingness to dismiss facts and logic labeled “conspiracy theory” by authority figures they trust.
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
Have you ever dismissed something out of hand because you thought it was a “conspiracy theory” or someone told you it was a “conspiracy theory?” Did you dismiss the possibility COVID-19 leaked from a gain of function laboratory because authorities and social media companies initially labeled this theory a “conspiracy theory?” How can you protect yourself from official misinformation labeling inconvenient truths as “conspiracy theories?”
Did the CIA promote the use of the phrase “conspiracy theory” as a pejorative thought-stopping shorthand for “crazy, unhinged conspiracy theory with little or no evidence, no likelihood of being true, conceived and promoted by paranoid, mentally unstable ‘conspiracy theorists'” at first to shut down criticism of the Warren Commission report and suspicions of CIA complicity specifically in the assassination of President Kennedy?
“Conspiracy theory” is now a shorthand for “crazy, irrational, evidence challenged conspiracy theory from a nut or nuts” used to quickly dismiss all sorts of ideas including solid data, generally applied when the “conspiracy theory” suggests misconduct or error by authority figures in a group the “conspiracy theory” labeler identifies strongly with.
Wikipedia now has a lengthy page devoted to this popular culture meaning of “conspiracy theory,” not the literal meaning of the phrase. Note that Wikipedia pages are often unreliable on topics labeled as “conspiracy theories” and are becoming even more unreliable; it is better to seek primary sources on these topics.
“Conspiracy theory” has broadened to included related phrases: “conspiracy theorist,” “conspiracist”, “conspiratorial thinking,” “conspiracy thinking,” and even just “conspiracy.”
The shorthand pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” has expanded to include theories that do not involve an actual conspiracy such as a laboratory leak of SARS-COV-2 at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and been used by high government officials such as Anthony Fauci and associates to stigmatize suggestions they may have made significant errors. “Conspiracy theory” has been frequently applied to the Mandela Effect and Graham Hancock’s lost civilization theories, recently expounded in the Netflix Ancient Apocalypse docuseries even though neither proposes a conspiracy.
This pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” represents a change in common usage of English that makes it difficult to either discuss or think about possible misconduct or error by groups of people, especially groups of powerful people. In this it resembles Orwell’s fictional newspeak in 1984, a simplified English in which it is impossible to express or imagine error or misconduct by the ruling political party.
Where did this now pervasive usage of the phrase “conspiracy theory,” and increasingly the other related phrases mentioned above come from? Did it come from a CIA program or some other source? Is its’ use and meaning centrally controlled or directed in some way? If so, by whom — the CIA or some other organization or group?
This review focuses primarily on the unsubstantiatedclaim in the book Conspiracy Theory in Americathat a CIA program presumably started by the January 1967 cable reprinted in the appendix of the book invented and heavily promoted the pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” to discredit critics of the Warren Commission report on the assassination of President Kennedy, presumably expanding to many other events also mentioned in the book, such as the September 11, 2001 attacks.
Clearly one should not rely on pejorative labels such as “witch hunt,” “conspiracy theory,” “denialism,” or “pseudoscience” to dismiss alleged facts or actual conspiracy theories in the non-pejorative legal sense out of hand. This does not depend on whether these labels were generated or centrally directed by the CIA, the Lyndon Johnson White House, the Communist Party of the United States (CPUSA), or any other group or real conspiracy. One needs to look at the actual facts and logic so labeled.
The Conspiracy Theory in Americabook fails to prove or even present strong evidence of a CIA program (conspiracy) to promote the use of “conspiracy theory” as a pejorative label. Thus, citing Conspiracy Theory in America will usually fail to convince those who rely on the pejorative label to dismiss something out of hand to think carefully about alleged “conspiracy theories.” If they take the time to read the book, they will see the case is weak at best and this will likely add to their skepticism of ideas labeled “conspiracy theories” by authority figures they trust.
Conspiracy Theory in America Fails to Prove Its’ Case
The book fails to make the case that the pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” and “conspiracy theorist” was invented and promoted by the CIA and/or there was a CIA program to do this.
The book cites a single CIA dispatch cable from January 1967. This cable does use the phrases “conspiracy theories,” “conspiracy theorists”, and “conspiracy talk,” once each in directing CIA stations to rebut criticism of the Warren Report in overseas newspapers etc. The cable (see appendix below), focuses on logical and factual counter-arguments to critics of the Warren Report alone.
The 1967 CIA cable does not recommend the use of any of these phrases as a marketing slogan conveying the associated implicit arguments now familiar to us, eg. that conspiracy theorists are unhinged lunatics with no supporting evidence etc.
The book presents only one letter from John P. Roche, a special assistant to President Lyndon Johnson, published in the London Times Literary Supplement in January of 1968, one year later, as evidence of the hypothetical CIA program. Keep in mind, several news articles with similar points were published in the United States in 1964, often seeking to rebut author Hans Habe’s Tod in Dallas (German), published in the US as The Wounded Land: Journey Through a Divided America (January 1, 1964) and using the language “conspiracy theory of history,” echoing historian Richard Hofstadter from his Pulitzer prize winning The Age of Reform published in 1955 (about which more below). See Appendix II for a list of matches for “conspiracy theory” in Newspapers only in Google Books for calendar year 1964.
In fact, “conspiracy theory” had been used in a critical way in the 1950’s and even earlier and increased substantially during 1964, 1965 and 1966 domestically in the wake of the assassination of President Kennedy (Nov 22, 1963), being used several times in the modern pejorative sense. This increase begins well before the January 1967 CIA cable, does not accelerate after 1967, eventually leveling off in 1971 for several years.
The phrase “conspiracy theory” is used pejoratively by Life Magazine in reviewing favorably the then recently published Warren Report in October of 1964.
Various people insist that it is a monstrous cover-up for a conspiracy, that the Warren Commission suppressed important facts and loaded its presentation to support the thesis that the President was murdered by one man acting on his own mad initiative.
Such views fly straight in the face of the most conscientious documentation of facts I have ever read. Of course, there will always be people who refuse to believe what they don’t want to believe. There seem to be a lot of other people around who actually need the conspiracy theory. It is as if there were more logic and order to the notion that President Kennedy was the victim of some dark, complex plot than to the idea that Oswald did it because he was drowning in the world and wanted to destroy a big man for it.
Life Magazine, Oct 16, 1964, page 35, The View From Here / Loudon Wainwright
The phrase “conspiracy theory” is used pejoratively in the campaign against the John Birch Society and Arizona Senator and failed 1964 Republican Presidential candidate Barry Goldwater as well — and at the same time during the 1960s.
It is only a short step to the conclusion that a secret conspiracy is at work to frustrate the Senator [Goldwater] and keep him from the presidency.
The conspiracy or devil theory of politics simplifies life for those who embrace it. Any setback can be blamed on the devils conspiring against you. The devil for the Goldwaterites is something variously called “the Eastern establishment” or “the Eastern conspiracy,” and at its heart are press, radio, and television.
At times the Senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory.
Washington Calling: A True Test for Barry? by Marquis Childs, Dayton Beach Morning Journal, June 20, 1964
In 1964, the phrase “conspiracy theory” was used pejoratively more than in previous years both to ridicule critics of the Warren Commission report and Goldwater and his followers. The increase in use during 1965 and 1966 targeted both critics of the Warren Commission report and the John Birch Society, often linked to Goldwater even after his defeat in 1964.
What do Successful Campaigns to Promote a Slogan Look Like?
We can see that the “Where’s the Beef?” and “Bill Cosby Show” campaigns were far more successful than any CIA program initiated in January 1967 or even immediately after the assassination of President Kennedy. There is no sharp spike in use of “conspiracy theory” in 1967 or earlier in 1964, just a slow moderate increase leveling off in 1971.
In contrast to “conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theorist,” another phrase in the 1967 CIA cable was hardly used until the late 1970s. “Conspiracy talk” has never caught on.
Did the CIA Invent the “Witch Hunt” Label?
One of the most widely used, effective thought-stopping pejorative labels is “witch hunt,” used by President Trump amongst others.
“Conspiracy theory” did not overtake “witch hunt” in popular usage until the late seventies, ten years after the January 1967 CIA cable cited by Conspiracy Theory in America. The count of usage of “conspiracy theory” includes both the now common pejorative sense and the historical literal legal sense, almost the only use before the 1940s and still quite common in the 1960s and 70s.
The dramatic surge in the use of “witch hunt” from 1935 to about 1955 was in response to the anti-communist investigations of the period, dropping sharply in about 1955 after the censure of Senator Joseph McCarthy. Looking in detail through the Google Books database used to generate the plots above, a large majority of the uses of “witch hunt” between 1935 and 1955 are criticisms of these investigations — probably about 80 to 90 percent. The phrase “witch hunt” was also used less frequently to criticize attacks on comic books, attacks on rock and roll music, and various investigations of organized crime and corporate misconduct.
The pejorative phrase “witch hunt” was popularized during this period mostly by liberal and left wing writers such as Communist Party chief William Z Foster in the book The Rankin Witch Hunt (1945) referring the US Representative John Rankin of Mississippi, Carey McWilliams in Witch Hunt: The Revival of Heresy (1950), and playwright Arthur Miller with his hit play The Crucible (1953) using a fictionalized version of the Salem witch trials of 1692 as an allegory for the anti-communist investigations of Senator McCarthy and others. As the above plots show, the popularization of “witch hunt” as a pejorative label, used not unlike “conspiracy theory” today, predates both the foundation of the CIA in 1947 and its predecessor agency the OSS (Office of Strategic Services) in 1942.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was founded in 1908 well before the popularization of “witch hunt” as a pejorative label illustrated above. The FBI had heavily infiltrated the Communist Party and other left wing organizations. It seems at least possible the FBI could have engineering the popularization of the phrase which was frequently used to attack the FBI’s own investigations. This does however seem rather improbable.
Where Did the Use of “Conspiracy Theory” as a Pejorative Label Come From?
Before the 1940’s, “conspiracy theory” appears almost exclusively as a technical term in legal contexts, especially court cases involving labor law or antitrust. Occasionally — rarely — it is used in a neutral, non-pejorative way to describe suggested conspiracies in current or historical events. For example, “conspiracy theory” is used in a literal, non-pejorative sense in criticism of Alfred Milner’s activities in South Africa in the early 20th century in some books — as in the author suspects Milner of a conspiracy.
This neutral usage of “conspiracy theory” however began to change in the late forties and fifties with the publication of philosopher Karl Popper’s The Open Society and Its’ Enemies which uses the phrase “conspiracy theory of society” in a highly pejorative sense as a nutty, impossible, irrational idea and the phrase “conspiracy theory” as shorthand for “conspiracy theory of society” or a specific theory.
In 1955, Columbia University historian Richard Hofstadter published his Pulitzer Prize winning book The Age of Reform which features the phrase “conspiracy theory of history” in a highly pejorative fashion ridiculing the ideas and theories of the 19th century Populists and “conspiracy theory” as shorthand. The book features an entire section “History as Conspiracy” ridiculing the “conspiracy theory of history” and specific Populist “conspiracy theories.” In 1964, both “conspiracy theory of history” and “conspiracy theory” were invoked repeatedly in articles defending the Warren Commission report and dismissing Hans Habe’s book, published in January 1964, suggesting a conspiracy behind the assassination of President Kennedy.
Richard Hofstadter, a former Communist, had at least indirect ties and funding from the CIA according to his biographer David Brown:
Hofstadter’s studies on higher education were influenced by his work for the American Committee for Cultural Freedom (ACCF), a society of liberal cold warriors opposed to international communism. The committee’s parental affiliate, the Congress for Cultural Freedom, enjoyed lavish funding from the CIA as part of a broadly structured effort to emphasize the West’s commitment to literary, scientific, and artistic integrity. As one commentator put it, the congress hoped to “nudge the intelligentsia of Western Europe away from its lingering fascination with Marxism and Communism towards a view more accommodating of `the American way”‘.’ It is unclear whether the CIA funded the committee, but at least two periodicals that published Hofstadter’s work in the early sixties (Daedalus and Encounter) benefited from ClA largesse. Hofstadter was probably unaware of their covert affiliation -the New York Times broke the story in 1967 – though his wry sense of humor would no doubt have appreciated the strange irony of a massive propaganda campaign to promote American intellectual freedom carried out by the nation’s chief intelligence organization.
David S. Brown. Richard Hofstadter: An Intellectual Biography (Kindle Locations 1234-1237). Kindle Edition.
Hofstadter’s primary target in The Age of Reform (1955), his contribution to Daniel Bell’s The Radical Right (1963), and The Paranoid Style in American Politics (1964), all of which promote and define the crazy conspiracy theory and conspiracy theorist trope appears to be the political right wing, especially the John Birch Society, Goldwater, and Goldwater’s followers. At the time, the phrases “extremist” and “radical right” were used much more heavily in these attacks than “conspiracy theory” and “conspiracy theorist”.
I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.
Barry Goldwater’s Final Paragraph Republican Nomination Acceptance Speech (July 16, 1964) responding to the “extremist” label.
As the years have progressed “conspiracy theory” has been used more and more, often as a shorthand for the ideas in Hofstadter’s “conspiracy theory of history” and Popper’s “conspiracy theory of society.” This appears to have been a slow evolution in usage and meaning, possibly accelerated by the hit 1993-2003 X-Files TV show which featured a mysterious UFO related government conspiracy blamed in at least one episode for the JFK assassination (“Musings of a Cigarette Smoking Man,” 1996).
Many Other Flaws in Conspiracy Theory in America
This review focuses on the claim that Conspiracy Theory in America proves that the CIA invented the pejorative slogan “conspiracy theory” to suppress criticism of the Warren Commission report on the assassination of President Kennedy, expanding its use to many other events, what deHaven-Smith labels State Crimes Against Democracy (SCAD). The book is best known and cited for this repeatedly. However, there are many other faults in the book that will be obvious to a critical reader.
Lance deHaven-Smith (1951-2022) was the Reuben Askew Professor at the Reuben O’Donovan Askew School of Public Administration and Policy, Florida State University. Reuben Askew was the former Democratic governor of Florida from January 5, 1971 to January 2, 1979. He then served as US Trade Representative under President Jimmy Carter from October 1, 1979 to December 31, 1980.
As his friendship with Governor Askew suggests, Lance deHaven-Smith was a strong partisan of the Democratic Party and this is evident in many places in Conspiracy Theory in America. For example:
The Democrats also have political criminality—Lyndon Johnson was possibly a principal in the assassination of President Kennedy, and he misled Congress and the American people about the Gulf of Tonkin incident. But the Democrats do not appear to have developed, at least not yet, a political philosophy that condones high crimes in the name of policy objectives.
ASSASSINATION TARGETS
The range of officials targeted for assassination in the post-WWII era is limited to those most directly associated with foreign policy: presidents (and presidential candidates) and senators. High-ranking officials in the federal government have seldom been murdered even though many have attracted widespread hostility and opposition. No vice presidents have been assassinated, nor have any U.S. Supreme Court justices. The only member of the U.S. House of Representatives who has been targeted is Gabrielle Giffords in January 2011.
deHaven-Smith, Lance. Conspiracy Theory in America (Discovering America) (Kindle Locations 2053-2061). University of Texas Press. Kindle Edition.
deHaven-Smith includes Senator Paul Wellstone’s death in a plane crash (officially) in his list of SCADs — but not US Senator Huey Long in 1935 who was gunned down in October of 1935, one month after alleging President Roosevelt was conspiring with his enemies in Louisiana to kill him. Post World War II, in addition to the attempted assassination of Gabrielle Giffords, US Representative (R-GA) Larry McDonald, the leader of the afore mentioned John Birch Society, was killed when the Soviet Air Force shot down Korean Airlines Flight 007 on September 1, 1983. Surely if Paul Wellstone belongs on this list, a US Representative killed by military action ought to be on the list.
deHaven-Smith also does not mention the disappearance of Louisiana Representative Hale Boggs, a member of the Warren Commission who supposedly died in a plane crash in 1971. The plane and Boggs remains were never found.
Nor does he mention California Representative Leo Ryan, apparently murdered on November 18, 1978 by a hit team sent by the Reverend Jim Jones, a curious fixture in San Francisco Democratic Party politics in the 1970s. Nor does he express any suspicions regarding the assassinations of San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk, both with close ties to Jim Jones, only days later on November 27, 1978.
Knowledgeable liberal or left-wing readers may complain that “conservative” Supervisor Dan White was convicted of the murders of Moscone and Milk. Dan White was in fact a Democrat which is rarely mentioned. Surely the timing is rather suspicious.
Warren Commission critic attorney Mark Lane, Lee Harvey Oswald’s mother’s attorney and author of Rush to Judgment, one of the earliest best sellers challenging the Warren Report, was in fact an advisor to Reverend Jones in Guyana and somehow survived the mass suicide of Jones and his followers shortly after Representative Ryan’s murder.
This pro-Democrat double standard and motivated reasoning is evident in many places in the book. There is a lack of consistent standards for what constitutes a suspected SCAD and a lack of controls such as looking at other phrases such as “witch hunt” or “where’s the beef” in drawing conclusions.
Conclusion
The Google NGRAM viewer evidence suggests the modern pejorative “conspiracy theory” label and related phrases such as “conspiracy theorist” evolved from Popper’s “conspiracy theory of society” and Hofstadter’s “conspiracy theory of history” (1955) over many years, growing in use and pejorative meaning. This predates the January 1967 CIA cable cited by Conspiracy Theory in America by Lance deHaven-Smith (2013).
Given Richard Hofstadter’s at least indirect ties to the CIA, it is difficult to rule out a longer term program initiated in the 1950’s or even late 1940s, although the motivation is unclear.
Clearly one should not rely on pejorative labels such as “witch hunt,” “conspiracy theory,” “denialism,” or “pseudoscience” to dismiss alleged facts or actual conspiracy theories in the non-pejorative legal sense out of hand. This does not depend on whether these labels were generated or centrally directed by the CIA, the Lyndon Johnson White House, the CPUSA, or any other group or real conspiracy. One needs to look at the actual facts and logic so labeled.
Since the Conspiracy Theory in America book fails to prove or even present strong evidence (for example, the program documents and budgets for the MK-ULTRA mind control research programs declassified by the CIA) of a CIA program (conspiracy) to promote the use of “conspiracy theory” as a pejorative label, citing this book to convince those who rely on the pejorative label to dismiss something out of hand (conspiracy dismissers) to think carefully about alleged “conspiracy theories” will usually fail. If they read the book, they will see the evidence is quite weak and this will likely increase their skepticism of anything labeled a “conspiracy theory” by authority figures they trust.
“Conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theorist,” and other related pejorative labels are frequently used as if to say criminal conspiracies are essentially impossible or so rare as to be easily and quickly dismissed by any sane rational person.
There are laws against criminal conspiracy and people are convicted under these laws all the time. The FBI statistics on homicides for 2019 shows that about 14.7% of “cleared” (ostensibly solved) murders in 2019 involved at least one accomplice, a conspiracy in common usage.
A review of Wikipedia’s list of US serial killers showed that 56 of 553 identified serial killers active from 1950 to 2020 had accomplices, a conspiracy in common usage. This is 10.13% of the names listed. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices. This provides a check on the FBI official numbers where the names of the killers and victims or at least forensic evidence of victims who could not be identified in some cases are available for independent review.
A review of US Presidential assassinations and plots showed that at least one of the four Presidential Assassinations (Lincoln) was clearly a conspiracy and 9-10 of 37 failed Presidential assassination attempts were conspiracies of some sort.
The US CIA declassified evidence in the 1970s strongly suggesting their involvement in the assassinations/deaths of Patrice Lumumba in the Belgian Congo (later Zaire), Dominican Republic dictator Rafael Trujillo and his son, President of South Vietnam Ngo Dinh Diem and his brother, Salvador Allende in Chile, and unsuccessful plots to kill Cuban President Fidel Castro in league with the US Mafia.
The CIA also declassified some records in the 1970s of a series of mind control research programs, usually referred to popularly as MK-ULTRA, involving many prominent scientists (Martin Orne, Louis Jolyon West, Ewan Cameron, many others) and illegal experiments on uninformed test subjects and even children. The mind control programs were kept secret for about twenty years and much remains unknown about these programs.
Of the 1,186 killings that the PSNI’s Legacy Investigation Branch is assessing:
45.5% are attributed to republican paramilitaries. (loosely Irish Catholics, Communist groups)
23% are attributed to loyalist paramilitaries. (loosely English and Ulster Scots Protestants)
28.5% are attributed to the security forces. (loosely the UK British troops and intelligence groups)
For the remaining 3% of deaths, the background of those primarily responsible is unknown.
These represent still unsolved murders mostly attributed to large scale conspiratorial organizations. As with alleged unsolved gang related killings in the United States, proof is elusive. The politically charged 1972 disappearance/murder of Jean McConville, alleged to have been ordered by the Sinn Fein political party leader Gerry Adams in tape recordings of “oral histories” collected by Boston College (USA) from former IRA members who claimed to have abducted and shot Jean McConville, has never been officially solved, although her body was discovered in 2004. Adams denies ever having been in the IRA, let alone being one of its leaders, or ordering the murder. (See, for example, Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland by Patrick Radden Keefe)
It is clearly rational to suspect conspiracies including high level conspiracies in unsolved or suspicious “solved” murders.
(C) 2023 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
Appendix I: The January 1967 CIA Cable
This is quoted from Lance deHaven-Smith’s Conspiracy Theory in America (2013) Kindle version. The occurrences of the phrases “conspiracy theories,” “conspiracy theorists” and “conspiracy talk” are bolded below. Note that only “conspiracy theory” and “conspiracy theorist” have become modern pejorative labels. Note also there is no direction to use these as marketing slogans as in an advertising of PR campaign where specific phrases — slogans and taglines — are selected.
APPENDIX
CIA Dispatch #1035-960
This retyped copy of CIA Dispatch #1035-960 was checked against http://www.jfklancer.com/CIA.html (accessed May 2012).
Marked PSYCH and Destroy when no longer needed RE: Concerning Criticism of the Warren Report
Our Concern. From the day of President Kennedy’s assassination on, there has been speculation about the responsibility for his murder. Although this was stemmed for a time by the Warren Commission report (which appeared at the end of September 1964), various writers have now had time to scan the Commission’s published report and documents for new pretexts for questioning, and there has been a new wave of books and articles criticizing the Commission’s findings. In most cases the critics have speculated as to the existence of some kind of conspiracy, and often they have implied that the Commission itself was involved. Presumably as a result of the increasing challenge to the Warren Commission’s report, a public opinion poll recently indicated that 46% of the American public did not think that Oswald acted alone, while more than half of those polled thought that the Commission had left some questions unresolved. Doubtless polls abroad would show similar, or possibly more adverse results.
This trend of opinion is a matter of concern to the U.S. government, including our organization. The members of the Warren Commission were naturally chosen for their integrity, experience and prominence. They represented both major parties, and they and their staff were deliberately drawn from all sections of the country. Just because of the standing of the Commissioners, efforts to impugn their rectitude and wisdom tend to cast doubt on the whole leadership of American society. Moreover, there seems to be an increasing tendency to hint that President Johnson himself, as the one person who might be said to have benefited, was in some way responsible for the assassination. Innuendo of such seriousness affects not only the individual concerned, but also the whole reputation of the American government. Our organization itself is directly involved: among other facts, we contributed information to the investigation. Conspiracy theories have frequently thrown suspicion on our organization, for example by falsely alleging that Lee Harvey Oswald worked for us. The aim of this dispatch is to provide material countering and discrediting the claims of the conspiracy theorists, so as to inhibit the circulation of such claims in other countries. Background information is supplied in a classified section and in a number of unclassified attachments.
Action. We do not recommend that discussion of the assassination question be initiated where it is not already taking place. Where discussion is active [business] addresses are requested:
a. To discuss the publicity problem with [?] and friendly elite contacts (especially politicians and editors), pointing out that the Warren Commission made as thorough an investigation as humanly possible, that the charges of the critics are without serious foundation, and that further speculative discussion only plays into the hands of the opposition. Point out also that parts of the conspiracy talk appear to be deliberately generated by Communist propagandists. Urge them to use their influence to discourage unfounded and irresponsible speculation.
b. To employ propaganda assets to [negate] and refute the attacks of the critics. Book reviews and feature articles are particularly appropriate for this purpose. The unclassified attachments to this guidance should provide useful background material for passing to assets. Our ploy should point out, as applicable, that the critics are (I) wedded to theories adopted before the evidence was in, (II) politically interested, (III) financially interested, (IV) hasty and inaccurate in their research, or (V) infatuated with their own theories. In the course of discussions of the whole phenomenon of criticism, a useful strategy may be to single out Epstein’s theory for attack, using the attached Fletcher [?] article and Spectator piece for background. (Although Mark Lane’s book is much less convincing than Epstein’s and comes off badly where confronted by knowledgeable critics, it is also much more difficult to answer as a whole, as one becomes lost in a morass of unrelated details.) 4. In private to media discussions not directed at any particular writer, or in attacking publications which may be yet forthcoming, the following arguments should be useful: a. No significant new evidence has emerged which the Commission did not consider. The assassination is sometimes compared (e.g., by Joachim Joesten and Bertrand Russell) with the Dreyfus case; however, unlike that case, the attacks on the Warren Commission have produced no new evidence, no new culprits have been convincingly identified, and there is no agreement among the critics. (A better parallel, though an imperfect one, might be with the Reichstag fire of 1933, which some competent historians (Fritz Tobias, A. J. P. Taylor, D. C. Watt) now believe was set by Vander Lubbe on his own initiative, without acting for either Nazis or Communists; the Nazis tried to pin the blame on the Communists, but the latter have been more successful in convincing the world that the Nazis were to blame.) b. Critics usually overvalue particular items and ignore others. They tend to place more emphasis on the recollections of individual witnesses (which are less reliable and more divergent and hence offer more hand-holds for criticism) and less on ballistics, autopsy, and photographic evidence. A close examination of the Commission’s records will usually show that the conflicting eyewitness accounts are quoted out of context, or were discarded by the Commission for good and sufficient reason.
c. Conspiracy on the large scale often suggested would be impossible to conceal in the United States, esp. since informants could expect to receive large royalties, etc. Note that Robert Kennedy, Attorney General at the time and John F. Kennedy’s brother, would be the last man to overlook or conceal any conspiracy. And as one reviewer pointed out, Congressman Gerald R. Ford would hardly have held his tongue for the sake of the Democratic administration, and Senator Russell would have had every political interest in exposing any misdeeds on the part of Chief Justice Warren. A conspirator moreover would hardly choose a location for a shooting where so much depended on conditions beyond his control: the route, the speed of the cars, the moving target, the risk that the assassin would be discovered. A group of wealthy conspirators could have arranged much more secure conditions.
d. Critics have often been enticed by a form of intellectual pride: they light on some theory and fall in love with it; they also scoff at the Commission because it did not always answer every question with a flat decision one way or the other. Actually, the make-up of the Commission and its staff was an excellent safeguard against over-commitment to any one theory, or against the illicit transformation of probabilities into certainties. e. Oswald would not have been any sensible person’s choice for a co-conspirator. He was a loner, mixed up, of questionable reliability and an unknown quantity to any professional intelligence service.
f. As to charges that the Commission’s report was a rush job, it emerged three months after the deadline originally set. But to the degree that the Commission tried to speed up its reporting, this was largely due to the pressure of irresponsible speculation already appearing, in some cases coming from the same critics who, refusing to admit their errors, are now putting out new criticisms.
g. Such vague accusations as that more than ten people have died mysteriously can always be explained in some natural way e.g.: the individuals concerned have for the most part died of natural causes; the Commission staff questioned 418 witnesses (the FBI interviewed far more people, conduction 25,000 interviews and re interviews), and in such a large group, a certain number of deaths are to be expected. (When Penn Jones, one of the originators of the ten mysterious deaths line, appeared on television, it emerged that two of the deaths on his list were from heart attacks, one from cancer, one was from a head-on collision on a bridge, and one occurred when a driver drifted into a bridge abutment.)
Where possible, counter speculation by encouraging reference to the Commission’s Report itself. Open-minded foreign readers should still be impressed by the care, thoroughness, objectivity and speed with which the Commission worked. Reviewers of other books might be encouraged to add to their account the idea that, checking back with the report itself, they found it far superior to the work of its critics.
deHaven-Smith, Lance. Conspiracy Theory in America (Discovering America) (Kindle Locations 2784-2856). University of Texas Press. Kindle Edition.
NOTE: Epstein refers to author Edward Jay Epstein
Appendix II: Google Books “conspiracy theory” matches for 1964
Google Books includes magazines and newspapers such as Life magazine. The Google NGRAM viewer returns frequency of words and phrases such as “conspiracy theory” in this database. The search below is only for Newspapers and does not include the Life Magazine article quoted in the article above.
“Conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theory of history” and “Hans Habe” are bolded in the output below.
Seasonal Holidays 2022 “conspiracy theory”
AllNewsImagesBooks VideosMore Tools Any view Newspapers Jan 1, 1964 – Dec 31, 1964 Clear 59 results (0.25 seconds) Search Results
Warren Report Sure To Stir Controversy. – Page 2books.google.com › books Eugene Register-Guard · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 2 West Germany — A book advancing the conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary …
Europe May Protests Polls Listed Warren Report Data. – Page 3books.google.com › books Lawrence Journal-World · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3 West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Ils author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary millionaires …
Europe Sees Whitewash By Warren’s Commission – Page 1books.google.com › books The Fort Scott Tribune · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1 West Germany A book — advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United Stales and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary millionaires …
Warren – Page 8books.google.com › books Saskatoon Star-Phoenix · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 8 West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. German newspapers for the most part have not advanced any …
Controversy – Page 7books.google.com › books The Nevada Daily Mail · Sep 24, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 7 West Germany A book ad— vancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary million …
Kentucky New Era – Page 18books.google.com › books Kentucky New Era · Sep 24, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 18 West Germany A book — advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary millio- …
The Daily Reporter – Page 1books.google.com › books The Daily Reporter · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1 West Germany — A bo^k advancing conspiracy theory a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Hhbe. «pent the war years in the United Stntes and now lives in Swi’zer- land. His book. ‘Death in Dallas” claims reactionary millionaires …
Sketches – Page 6books.google.com › books Gettysburg Times · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 6 »**My organ of the tiny People s Socialist party, has published stories supporting the conspiracy theory. Sweden — The conspiracy theory has had widespread pub- Hcation. Doubts are expected to return to many with the issuing of the …
Would Goldwater Offer True Test For Voters? – Page 4books.google.com › books Ocala Star-Banner · Jun 21, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 At times the Senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes m his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …
Washington Calling. Marquis Childs. – Page 22books.google.com › books Reading Eagle · Jun 18, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 22 At times the senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes in his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …
The Morning Record – Page 4books.google.com › books The Morning Record · Jun 20, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 AT TIMES bhe Senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes in his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …
Washington Calling. Conservatives Ready To Blame Press? By …books.google.com › books The Evening News · Jun 20, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 13 At times the senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes in his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …
Warren Report May Stir Controversy In Europe. – Page 4books.google.com › books The Free Lance-Star · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 West Gormany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is la best-seller. Its author, Hun- Igarian-born Hans Habe, shent. Tri Fr»ir tone‘- S* or,. he war .years in the United States and now lives in Swltzer- and.
The Tuscaloosa News. West Alabama Firmly Newspaper 146th. …books.google.com › books The Tuscaloosa News · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1 Sweden The conspiracy — theory has had widespread publication. Doubts are expected to return lo many with the issuing of the Warren commission reDisclosure. Denmark The belief in a — conspiracy is rather widespread, …
‘Null In Killing. A. True Test For Barry? – Page 6books.google.com › books Daytona Beach Morning Journal · Jun 20, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 6 At times the Senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes in his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …
Europe Is Skeptical Of Assassination Report. – Page 22books.google.com › books Spokane Daily Chronicle · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 22 … evidence presented up to now makes the average Frenchman — or most newspaper editors — believe ‘* was a cut-and-dned. one-man killing West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller Its author Hungarian-born Hans …
Kennedy Assassinatian Bpdort. Kennedy Assassination Report. …books.google.com › books Quebec Chronicle-Telegraph · Sep 28, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1 West (iernianv A hook ad vanring conspiracy theory is a best seller Its aiithoi Iltingar tan born Hans llabe. spent Ihe Slates. war jears in and now lives in Swit/erland. II Mil HI AMI S TK\SI|. In Di-.iin m Dallas llabe claims …
Result – Page 5books.google.com › books Meriden Journal · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5 No amount of evidence presented up to now makes the average Frenchman — or most newspaper editors — believe it was a cut-and-dried, one-man killing. West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is best-seller. Its author, HunBy.
In Case Of Defeat, Goldwater Backers Have News Media As … – Page 14books.google.com › books Toledo Blade · Jun 17, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 14 the conspiracy theory. One of the strangesi episodes in his California primary cam paign was ihe private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, a newspaper favor able to his cause.
Assassination – Page 2books.google.com › books Warsaw Times – Union · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 2 SWEDEN — The conspiracy theory has had widespread publication. Doubts are expected to return to many with the issuing the Warren commission report. DENMARK — The belief in a conspiracy is rather several newspapers have shown skepticism …
Europeans Still Think Jfk Murder A Rightist Plot. – Page 4books.google.com › books The Telegraph-Herald · Sep 25, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzer land. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary million’ …
Ex-Commie Opposes Checkup Group Of Jfk Death. Rivals For …books.google.com › books Lawrence Journal-World · May 5, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3 Unless this is done the conspiracy theory cannot be laid to rest. The commission has discussed Buchanan; indeed, it has had some preliminary contact with him. But it has not yet decided whether to take the bold but obvious step of …
Psst, Citizen! Citizen! Here’s Real Inside Dope. – Page 4books.google.com › books Eugene Register-Guard · Feb 22, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 But personally, I can never get very worked up about The Conspiracy Theory of Life. It’s not that 1 have more faith thin some in my fellow man. It’s that I have less. Most people I know, including me. are far too wilUuI, nulr- pendent …
Who Killed Kennedy? – Page 6books.google.com › books The Telegraph-Herald · Sep 27, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 6 This conspiracy theory has beeh accepted so widely in Europe that a contrary report by the Warren Commission could inspire charger that a conspiracy Is being “whitewashed.” In England, Philosopher Bertrand Russell heads a “Who Killed …
The Portsmouth Times – Page 53books.google.com › books The Portsmouth Times · Sep 22, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 53 ‘S Germany _ A book advamMng conspiracy theory is 21 ‘7 JIKWS a best-seller Its author Hun- were doiiut garian-born Hans Habe.‘ spent the war years in the United states and now lives in Switzer- land. His book, “Death in Dal- m.
Public Wants Fast Probe Report. – Page 4books.google.com › books Sarasota Herald-Tribune · Apr 14, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 Perhaps one reason so many Europeans are wedded to the conspiracy theory is that they can’t quite believe in the coincidence o two psychotics Oswald and — Ruby in one place at the – same time. Apart from the fact of there being no …
‘Conspiracy Theory Exploded. – Page 10books.google.com › books The Deseret News · Sep 28, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 10 Never, until our own revolutionary century, has the conspiracy theory of history been given such a workout. A “sect,” consisting of about 300.000 “adepts.” has been boring from within for some 20 years. “It first announced itself in …
The Altus Times-Democrat – Page 4books.google.com › books The Altus Times-Democrat · Apr 22, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 … even behind the Iron Curtain. was In Copenhagen recently. propagating his theories to | Students Association as guest of the liberal newspaper Eks trahladet The other American expous Ing the “conspiracy theory” is Thomas Buchanan, …
Many Europeans Blame Assassination Of Kennedy On Extremist …books.google.com › books Sarasota Herald-Tribune · Apr 28, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5 Former Communist The other American expous- ing the “conspiracy theory” is Thomas Buchanan, a self-admitted former Communist now living in Paris. He has found a surprisingly wide audience. Buchanan recently wrote a series for the …
Fhese Days… Why Blame The C. I. A For Lack Of Will Power? – Page 4books.google.com › books The Washington Observer · Jun 18, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 This column does not accepl Ihe conspiracy theory of his- lory. Bul il does Ihmk rather well of the contagion theory. This ran involve e conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander char- acters, and to impute • motives, …
Fr I D. To Hove Word With You Drew Pearson.. These Days. Why …books.google.com › books The Tuscaloosa News · Jun 22, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3 This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to impute motives.
These Days. Why Blame The Cia For Failures In Will? By John …books.google.com › books Ocala Star-Banner · Jun 18, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. Tnis can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and. to impute motives.
But Critics. Are Unfair… The Cia Gets All The Blame. – Page 8books.google.com › books The Evening Independent · Jun 18, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 8 This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to impute motives, …
By John Chamberlain – Page 8books.google.com › books Park City Daily News · Jun 21, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 8 This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of his- tory But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to im- pute motives.
Failure Of Will Why Blame The Cia? – Page 13books.google.com › books The Deseret News · Jun 18, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 13 This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to impute motives.
The Press-Courier – Page 28books.google.com › books The Press-Courier · Apr 17, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 28 ‘Conspiracy Theory”. Buchanan, a. former (‘omniums: now- living in Pans He has found a surprisingly wide audience Buchanan recently wrote a scries for the left -wing French weekly 1/Kxpress It was reprinted and quoted throughout Western …
Warren Report Squelches Myths. – Page 3books.google.com › books Middlesboro Daily News · Oct 5, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3 Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswp.ld’s innocence, will continue to do so, despite an absolute lack of substantiation, and the sheer overwhelming bulk of the evidence meticulously assembled against …
Us Tory Union Disclaims Birchers. – Page 12books.google.com › books The Calgary Herald · Dec 26, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 12 As a “practical matter,” he said, it had been “tarred by the liberal press,” had “never thought out its positions, reacted blindly, and harbored a conspiracy theory contrary to any reasonable analysis of domestic and world realities.
Squelching The Myths. – Page 31books.google.com › books The Southeast Missourian · Oct 12, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 31 Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswald’s innocence, will continue to do so. despite an sbsolufe Isck of substantiation and the sis^r ovsrvr’aelrninf faolk of the evidence EDf-icuicasIy assembled against …
Warren Report Squelches Myths Eastern Arsenal Moves In – Page 31books.google.com › books Park City Daily News · Sep 30, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 31 Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or oven in Oswald’s innocence, will continue to do so, despite nn absolute lack of substantiation and the sheer overwhelming bulk of the evidence meticulously assembled acainst Oswald.
For All. To See… The Legends Begin To Grow. – Page 3books.google.com › books The Victoria Advocate · Jul 26, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3 Itobert Kennedy is an objective witness, un that if there was anything to the Big Conspiracy theory, he would be pitching for more investigation. Further, he has access to much of the testimony given to the Warren Commission. Ti* dead I.
Shattering Myths. – Page 4books.google.com › books The Owosso Argus-Press · Oct 1, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswald’s innocence, will continue to do so, despite an absolute lack of substantiation and the sheer overwhelming bulk of the evidence meticulously assembled against Oswald.
Warren Report Squelches Myths. – Page 5books.google.com › books The Sumter Daily Item · Oct 5, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5 Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswalds innocence, will continue to do so,- despite an absolute lack of substantiation and the sheer overwhelming bulk of the evidence meticulously assembled against Oswald.
Probers Shrug Off Assassin Theories. – Page 2books.google.com › books The Press-Courier · Jun 1, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 2 Ihe spokesman said, many advocates of a conspiracy theory simply state without any supporting evidence thai Ihe shots fired at the President’s car could not have come from the School Book Depository an Dallas.
A Time To Ignore Politics. – Page 3books.google.com › books The Victoria Advocate · Apr 17, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3 Much of the French and British press still favor the “conspiracy” theory and they wil] have a hard time accepting the Warren Commission version thai there was no plot. Perhaps one reason so many Europeans are wedded to the comspiracy …
In .Assassination Events Impressed With .Repor1 . – Page 5books.google.com › books The Lewiston Daily Sun · Sep 28, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5 “I think this report should set at rest forever the conspiracy theory and should do a lot to restore our image abroad,” Belli said. Both Belli and Dallas attorney Joe Joe Tonahill, who joined Belli in. Festivities will open at 6:30.ncws …
Those Involved Impressed By Warren Group Report. – Page 1books.google.com › books Lewiston Morning Tribune · Sep 28, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1 … throughout the free world ” Belli Praises Melvin Belli, principal lawyer fulfilling the capabilities of the Americans who were appointed to do it. “I think this report should set at rest forever the conspiracy theory and should do a …
Village Gifts For Christmas. – Page 3books.google.com › books The Village Voice · Dec 10, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3 … but whenever h* veered from occasional self-criticism to tb* basic malaise of the press, he cut deeper by far than any of the others, Kempton dismissed the conspiracy theory with regard to non-coverage of basic news. (“If* not that.
Cia Position Is Defended. By John Chamberlain – Page 4books.google.com › books St. Joseph Gazette · Jun 22, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve eon-. spirary at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to impute motives.
The Sun – Page 7books.google.com › books The Sun · Sep 26, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 7 In Europe especially, whore e , ing al lne the conspiracy theoryof politics is almost a wav of life. e. Rullptholp. there developed a kind of bull- headed determination to facts match theory. Indeed to this clay, Europeans appear to …
Theories In Brief. – Page 9books.google.com › books Gadsden Times · Apr 19, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 9 The other American expous- Buchanan, interviewed in are the Kennedy assassination Ing the “conspiracy theory” Paris by UPI correspondent theories of Thomas Buchanan is Thomas Buchanan, a self-ad- Aline Mosby, said his conclu- which have …
Planning Failure. – Page 9books.google.com › books The Glasgow Herald · Dec 9, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 9 Shipyard workers on the Clyde, seemed to hold something like a “conspiracy theory” of industrial relations to explain the attitudes and” behaviour of .their employers. Three shipyard workers. in different employments and in different …
The Village Voice – Page 4books.google.com › books The Village Voice · Nov 26, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4 UW«B conspiracy . theory:. , „ He was the TfWil tool of f\f powerful Tu-nt”«ff ill forces f I’kViiAo hostile Vni.-t.l to fj-k us. So many theories’ all of them notable for “distancing” the assassin -from the subjective proximity of …
Roscoe Drummond, Report Of Warren Group Should Not Be Held Back.books.google.com › books The Free Lance-Star · Apr 15, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5 … the War- ren Commission version that there was no plot. Perhaps one reason so many Europeans are wedded to the conspiracy theory ! ! j’s’that” j’s’that” they can’t “quite “quite believe in the coincidence of two psy- DRUMMOND, Page 13)
Belli Renews Rap At Dallas Justice. – Page 17books.google.com › books The Spokesman-Review · Sep 28, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 17 “I think this report should session’s ‘at rest forever the conspiracy ‘theory and should do a lot to restore our image abroad. The only thing that remains is for a. NEW YORK (AP) — Former a hard hat for street wear. ‘Afty. Gen.
The Altus Times-Democrat – Page 24books.google.com › books The Altus Times-Democrat · Oct 4, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 24 Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswald’s innocence, will continue to do so, despite an absolute lack of substantiation and the sheer overwhelming bulk. bled against Oswald.
Inside Cover Of Report With A Portrait Of The Late President … – Page 1books.google.com › books Daytona Beach Morning Journal · Sep 28, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1 … described the findings as “.a real great report, fulfilling the capabilities of the great Americans who were appointed to do it “I think this report should set at rest forever the conspiracy theory and should do a lot to restore our …
Where Are The Doubt’. Warren Are Can Neglect To Examine. – Page 19books.google.com › books The Michigan Daily · Sep 24, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 19 A conspiracy theory would have been. “proving negatives to a certainty.” mi-ssipn may be trnr. They nuiy not. ^LL THE FACTS uncovered by the commission may be true. They may not. The public, however, should not hasten to swallow without …
Pressure On Sartre Over Nobel Prize. – Page 2books.google.com › books The Sydney Morning Herald · Nov 4, 1964 · Newspaper FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 2 E French are without doubt the people most addicted to the conspiracy theory of government. It is a sign of naivety in France to doubt that the country’s rulers are incapable of the most daring ingenuity, and the most brazen lying, … North Los Altos, Los Altos, CA – From your IP address
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John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
It is common to encounter implicit or explicit claims, especially by intellectuals, that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational, impossible or extremely rare. The phrase “conspiracy theory” as well as related phrases “conspiracy theorist,” “conspiracy”, and “conspiracist” are used more and more to dismiss any suggestion of a criminal conspiracy or even error in certain events.
These are generally significant events, often assassinations, murders, or suspected murders such as the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Malcolm X, the alleged suicide of late “financier” Jeffrey Epstein and others, where the alleged or suspected conspirators are usually authority figures in the group or groups the “conspiracy theory” labeler identifies strongly with.
Event
Date(s)
Killed
Official Cause
Assassination of Senator Huey Long
Sep. 10, 1935
Huey Long, Carl Weiss
Carl Weiss acting alone, Weiss killed by Long’s bodyguards
JFK Assassination
Nov 22, 1963
John F. Kennedy, J.D. Tippit
Lee Harvey Oswald acting alone
Malcolm X Assassination
February 21, 1965
Malcolm X (born Malcolm Little)
Originally convicted: Muhammad A. Aziz (exonerated) Khalil Islam (exonerated) Thomas Hagan
Conspiracy by enemies in the Nation of Islam.
MLK Assassination
April 4, 1968
Martin Luther King
James Early Ray acting alone
RFK Assassination
June 5, 1968
Robert Francis Kennedy
Sirhan Sirhan acting alone
Oklahoma City Bombing
April 19, 1995
at least 168 people
Timothy McVeigh, Terry Nichols (Michael Fortier convicted of related offenses, but not the conspiracy, plea deal)
TWA Flight 800
July 17, 1996
230, all on board
accidentally blew up
September 11 Attacks
September 11, 2001
2,996
attributed to 19 hijackers acting on orders from Osama bin Laden
Anthrax attacks
September 18 – October 12, 2001
5 killed
Eventually blamed on researcher Bruce Ivins
Jeffrey Epstein “suicide”
August 10, 2019
1 dead
Ruled a suicide
COVID-19 Pandemic
Fall 2019 – Present
Several million worldwide
Unknown
Most Prominent “Conspiracy Theories” Involve Homicide or Possible Homicide Cases
This common and increasing usage of “conspiracy theory” makes it difficult even to discuss suspicions of criminal conspiracies or even incompetence by powerful persons or groups, not unlike George Orwell’s fictional newspeak in the novel 1984. Newspeak is a controlled language of simplified grammar and restricted vocabulary designed to limit the individual’s ability to think and articulate “subversive” concepts such as personal identity, self-expression, and free will.
What Does the Data Show Us?
There are laws against conspiracy and groups of people are convicted of conspiracy all the time.
FBI figures reviewed by The Associated Press show that the homicide clearance rate, as detectives call it, dropped from 91 percent in 1963 – the first year records were kept in the manner they are now – to 61 percent in 2007.
Law enforcement officials say the chief reason is a rise in drug- and gang-related killings, which are often impersonal and anonymous, and thus harder to solve than slayings among family members or friends. As a result, police departments are carrying an ever-growing number of “cold-case” murders on their books.
Gangs, Drugs Blamed For Unsolved Murders, December 9, 2008 (CBS/AP)
Official statistics can be incorrect due to political pressure, bias, or simple error. Official agencies often never admit such errors even if they quietly revise or discontinue reporting the faulty statistic. Thus it is prudent to find independent checks on such official claims.
A review of Wikipedia’s list of US serial killers showed that 56 of 553 identified serial killers active from 1950 to 2020 had accomplices, a conspiracy in common usage. This is 10.13% of the names listed. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices. This provides a check on the FBI official numbers where the names of the killers and victims or at least forensic evidence of victims who could not be identified in some cases are available for independent review.
Another check on the FBI numbers especially relevant to the use of the phrase “conspiracy theory” to dismiss suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are assassinations or attempted assassinations of US Presidents.
Here Wikipedia’sList of United States presidential assassination attempts and plots which lists only officially alleged conspiracies is reviewed (on December 3, 2022). There are unproven conspiracy theories involving all four assassinations and many, possibly all, attempts to assassinate US presidents.
The Wikipedia list discusses thirty-seven (37) alleged attempts to kill a US President, including when out of office. Of these 9-10 were arguably alleged conspiracies, mostly involving foreign political groups often labeled “terrorists.” This gives 24.3 to 27% of US Presidential assassination attempts were conspiracies. This matches the one (1) in four (4) actual presidential assassinations.
The statistics are quite low however. With 95% confidence anywhere from 0 to 75% of actual Presidential assassinations are actual detectable conspiracies, ignoring a significant failure rate for detecting a conspiracy — in practice conspiracies are clearly difficult to prove. With larger numbers of failed assassination attempts, with 95% confidence anywhere from 3/37 to 16/37, 8% to 43% of failed assassination attempts are actual conspiracies. These ranges are consistent with the 14.7% of homicides in 2019 involve multiple offenders reported by the US FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation).
Herbert Hoover[edit]
On November 19, 1928,[58] President-elect Hoover embarked on a ten-nation "goodwill tour" of Central and South America.[59] While crossing the Andes Mountains from Chile, an assassination plot by Argentine anarchists was thwarted. The group was led by Severino Di Giovanni, who planned to blow up his train as it crossed the Argentinian central plain. The plotters had an itinerary but the bomber was arrested before he could place the explosives on the rails. Hoover professed unconcern, tearing off the front page of a newspaper that revealed the plot and explaining, "It's just as well that Lou shouldn't see it,"[60] referring to his wife. His complimentary remarks on Argentina were well received in both the host country and in the press.[61]
Harry S. Truman[edit]
Main article: Attempted assassination of Harry S. Truman
Mid-1947: During the Jewish insurgency in Palestine before the formation of the State of Israel, the Zionist Stern Gang was believed to have sent a number of letter bombs addressed to the president and high-ranking staff at the White House. The Secret Service had been alerted by British intelligence after similar letters had been sent to high-ranking British officials and the Gang claimed credit. The mail room of the White House intercepted the letters and the Secret Service defused them. At the time, the incident was not publicized. Truman's daughter Margaret Truman confirmed the incident in her biography of Truman published in 1972. It had earlier been told in a memoir by Ira R. T. Smith, who worked in the mail room.[65]
November 1, 1950: Two Puerto Ricanpro-independence activists, Oscar Collazo and Griselio Torresola, attempted to kill President Truman at the Blair House, where Truman was living while the White House was undergoing major renovations. In the attack, Torresola injured White House Policeman Joseph Downs and mortally wounded White House PolicemanLeslie Coffelt. Coffelt returned fire, killing Torresola with a shot to the head. Collazo wounded an officer before being shot in the stomach. Collazo survived with serious injuries. Truman was not harmed, but he was placed at a huge risk. Collazo was convicted in a federal trial and received the death sentence. Truman commuted Collazo's death sentence to life in prison. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter further commuted Collazo's sentence to time served.[66]
Richard Nixon
Late May 1972: During Nixon's official visit to Tehran, Iran, a "Marxist terrorist group" named People's Mujahedin of Iran blew up a bomb at Reza Shah's mausoleum, where Nixon was scheduled to attend a ceremony just 45 minutes after the explosion.[73] This may have been the earliest known attempt on the president's life by an Islamic extremist.
Jimmy Carter[edit]
Raymond Lee Harvey was an Ohio-born unemployed American drifter. He was arrested by the Secret Service after being found carrying a starter pistol with blank rounds, ten minutes before Carter was to give a speech at the Civic Center Mall in Los Angeles on May 5, 1979. Harvey had a history of mental illness,[78] but police had to investigate his claim that he was part of a four-man operation to assassinate the president.[79] According to Harvey, he fired seven blank rounds from the starter pistol on the hotel roof on the night of May 4 to test how much noise it would make. He claimed to have been with one of the plotters that night, whom he knew as "Julio". (This man was later identified as a 21-year-old illegal immigrant from Mexico, who gave the name Osvaldo Espinoza Ortiz.)[78] At the time of his arrest, Harvey had eight spent rounds in his pocket, as well as 70 unspent blank rounds for the gun.[80] Harvey was jailed on a $50,000 bond, given his transient status, and Ortiz was alternately reported as being held on a $100,000 bond as a material witness[78] or held on a $50,000 bond being charged with burglary from a car.[80] Charges against the pair were ultimately dismissed for a lack of evidence.[81]
NOTE: The Raymond Lee Harvey/Osvaldo Espinoza Ortiz case is obviously ambiguous since although arrests were apparently made, the charges were reportedly dismissed. Hence 9 or 10 conspiracy cases.
George H. W. Bush[edit]
See also: 1993 cruise missile strikes on Iraq
April 13, 1993: According to Kuwaiti authorities, and an FBI investigation [84] fourteen Kuwaiti and Iraqi men believed to be working for Saddam Hussein smuggled bombs into Kuwait, planning to assassinate former President Bush by a car bomb during his visit to Kuwait University three months after he had left office in January 1993.[85] The former president was on a visit to Kuwait in 1993 to commemorate the coalition's victory over Iraq in the Persian Gulf War when Kuwaiti officials claimed to have foiled an alleged assassination plot and arrested the suspects. At the time the former president was accompanied by his wife, two of his sons, former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, former Chief of Staff John Sununu, and former Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady. Of the 17 people Kuwaiti authorities arrested, two suspects, Wali Abdelhadi Ghazali and Raad Abdel-Amir al-Assadi, retracted their confessions at the trial, claiming that they were coerced.[86] A Kuwaiti court convicted all but one of the defendants. Then-president Bill Clinton responded by launching a cruise missile attack on an Iraqi intelligence building in the Mansour district of Baghdad. The plot was used as one of the justifications for the Iraq Resolution authorizing the 2003 U.S. invasion of the country. An analysis by the CIA's Counter-Terrorism Center concludes the assassination plot was likely fabricated by Kuwaiti authorities,[87] however at the time the FBI established that the plot had been directed by the Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS), and The CIA had received information suggesting that Saddam Hussein had authorized the assassination attempt to get revenge against the U.S, to punish Kuwait for working with the U.S, and to keep other Arab states for intervening in Iraq any further.[88] The day before the attack, on April 12th, 1993, the then U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. and future 64th U.S. secretary of state, Madeleine K. Albright, went before the U.N. Security Council to present evidence of the Iraqi plot with the hope of gaining international support.
Bill Clinton
November 1994: Osama bin Laden recruited Ramzi Yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, to attempt to assassinate Clinton. However, Yousef decided that security would be too effective and decided to target Pope John Paul II instead.[92]
1996: During his visit to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Manila, Clinton's motorcade was rerouted before it was to drive over a bridge. Service officers had intercepted a message suggesting that an attack was imminent, and Lewis Merletti, the director of the Secret Service, ordered the motorcade to be re-routed. An intelligence team later discovered a bomb under the bridge. Subsequent U.S. investigation "revealed that [the plot] was masterminded by a Saudi terrorist living in Afghanistan named Osama bin Laden".[93]
Barack Obama
2011–2012: The far-right terrorist group FEAR plotted to carry out a series of terror attacks which included assassinating Obama.[107] The plot was foiled when four members of the group were arrested on murder charges and one, Michael Burnett, agreed to co-operate with authorities in return for a lighter sentence.[108]
Conclusion
Contrary to the popular belief among many intellectuals, clearly detected conspiracies are not exceptionally rare or non-existent, in Presidential assassinations and assassination attempts. Given that many actual conspiracies go unproven in more mundane murders, it is not unreasonable to suspect actual but unproven conspiracies in Presidential assassinations or other high profile murders or possible murders.
(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me (References follow this About Me section)
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
Note that the details of these crimes are quite unpleasant and are discussed in these references. The analysis in this article is only concerned with the proportion of cases that were conspiracies as defined in common usage — multiple offenders working together.
Programmed to Kill: The Politics of Serial Murder, Dave McGowan, August 2004 https://www.amazon.com/Programmed-Kill-Politics-Serial-Murder/dp/0595326404/
Sam Bankman-Fried: FTX, T-Shirts, and Due Diligence
The sudden bankruptcy of crypto-exchange slash crypto-trader FTX has led to much commentary on FTX founder and ex-CEO Sam Bankman-Fried known as SBF’s hair and penchant for t-shirts and shorts. How could sophisticated investors like Sequoia have backed such a goofy looking guy?
Never judge a book by its cover. Whether SBF wore a t-shirt or a ten-thousand dollar suit, sophisticated investors are supposed to perform due diligence in which the financial system of the company is carefully reviewed. How did the accounting mess labeled “unprecedented” by new CEO John Ray who oversaw the ENRON bankdruptcy escape due diligence?
(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
Another brief followup to my article on the rationality of conspiracy theories. It is a common belief among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational.
The dictionary — as opposed to popular pejorative propaganda meaning — of “conspiracy theory” is simply a theory or hypothesis that some illegal or harmful event was caused by two or more malefactors working together. When surviving family, friends and neighbors, police investigators, news reporters or others suspect two or more perpetrators in a murder, they must consider a conspiracy theory.
The popular propaganda redefinition of “conspiracy theory,” the most straightforward dictionary phrase for a conspiracy theory, as “an irrational theory contradicted by evidence and reason” makes it difficult even to discuss and consider actual conspiracies in the modern world — not unlike the fictional newspeak in George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984.
A high fraction of events where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used to stigmatize suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are murders such as the assassination of President Kennedy or possible murders such as the suspicious “suicide” of financier Jeffrey Epstein where the suspected criminal conspiracy involves powerful persons such as high government officials, politicians, business leaders, or others. According to official FBI statistics about 14.7 percent of murders in 2019 were committed by multiple offenders, a conspiracy in common usage.
Almost twenty-seven percent (27%) of murders in 2019 were unsolved. Unsolved murders tend to be gang violence/organized crime murders, that is conspiracies that could not be proven. The larger, the more powerful, and the more secret a gang or organized crime group is perceived to be, the less willing witnesses are to come forward with testimony and evidence.
Official government numbers may be inaccurate due to political pressure, bias, or error. For example, serious questions have been raised about the FBI’s estimates of the number of serial killers and serial homicides in the early 1980s.
The data was extracted from the Wikipedia page identified serial killers table to a CSV (comma separated values) file on August 18, 2022 for another analysis to understand the properties and possible causes of serial murders, notably the seeming 1970s-1980s serial killer wave. The analysis is done using the Python programming language, NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib.
The table includes a Notes column which enables identification of cases where there was one or more accomplice. The language “accomplice,” “accomplices,” “with partner”, “with husband,” “with wife,” and similar phrases is generally used to identify accomplices. Some accomplices are listed separately in the Name column of the table; some are not. Serial killers reportedly active in the United States from 1950 to 2020 were analyzed.
The accomplices refer to persons convicted in a court of law. They do not include unsubstantiated claims by the serial killer, suspects never convicted including named or unnamed suspects suggested in books such as Maury Terry’s The Ultimate Evil or Dave McGowan (no relation)’s Programmed to Kill. As discussed in my previous article, there is evidence of additional accomplices, never convicted, in a number of cases listed by Wikipedia with no accomplices in the Notes section. These include John Wayne Gacy, Patrick Kearney, Randy Kraft, and several others. These “maybe” serial killer conspiracies are not included in the results below which count only convicted accomplices.
The Wikipedia list of serial killers in the United States is extensive, appears correct, but there may be some errors.
The plot below gives a rough overview of the serial killer conspiracy cases — fifty-six (56) named serial killers out of 553 reportedly active from 1950 to 2020. This is 10.13% of the names listed in the table. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices. Both the number of proven victims and the number of serial killers active peaks during the 1970s and 1980s, declining substantially in the 1990s up to 2020.
The green bars show the dates the serial killer and accomplices were active. The red circle shows the middle of this date range. The horizontal axis is the date in year. The vertical axis is the number of proven victims from the table. The red circles are labeled with the names of all identified serial killers from the table with the same middle of the date range. This shows some of the accomplices/conspirators. The data in the table, especially the notes column, is inconsistently presented, resulting in some serial killers not being grouped together. For example, Elmer Wayne Henley and Dean Corll, both shown in the plot, were accomplices. The table appears to credit Henley with only six (6) of the proven twenty-eight (28) murders organized by Corll, the ringleader.
Conclusion
Thus, proven in a court of law conspiracies are a small but significant fraction, about 10 percent (8-13% ninety-five percent confidence interval), of prominent serial killer cases — smaller than the 14.7 percent of murders with multiple offenders according to the FBI (in 2019). This is not surprising given the generally solitary nature of the crimes. Nonetheless, conspiracies are not exceptionally rare or unusual even in this type of murder.
Appendix: Deep Dive into Analysis
ACCOMPLICE CASES (56)
CASE NOTES MATCH AT LEAST ONE OF: accomplice, with wife, with husband, cult , accompliace, with his wife, with her husband, killers, partnership, with the aid of local teenagers
Bianchi, Kenneth Along with accomplice Angelo Buono Jr., known as "The Hillside Stranglers". Murdered young women in Los Angeles and Washington
Bittaker, Lawrence With accomplice Roy Norris known as "The Tool Box Killers"
Bonin, William Known as "The Freeway Killer"; preyed on young men and boys in southern California with several accomplices
Briley Brothers Three brothers and an accomplice responsible for 11 murders
Brown, Debra Denise Accomplice of Alton Coleman
Brummett, Lyle Raped and strangled three women in Texas with an accomplice
Bundy, Carol M. With accomplice Doug Clark, known as "The Sunset Strip Killers"; preyed on young women in West Hollywood and Los Angeles, California
Buono Jr., Angelo Along with accomplice Kenneth Bianchi, known as "The Hillside Stranglers". Murdered young women in Los Angeles
Carson, Michael Bear Along with his wife, Suzan Carson, dubbed "The San Francisco Witch Killers"; considered suspects in nearly a dozen other deaths in the U.S. and Europe[103]
Carson, Suzan Along with her husband, Michael Bear Carson, dubbed "The San Francisco Witch Killers"; considered suspects in nearly a dozen other deaths in the U.S. and Europe[103]
Chavez, Juan Rodriguez Known as "The Thrill Killer"; killed a neighbor during a burglary; paroled and went on a killing spree with a teenage accomplice
Clark, Doug With accomplice Carol M. Bundy, known as "The Sunset Strip Killers"; preyed on young women in West Hollywood and Los Angeles, California
Coffman, Cynthia Kidnapped four women by ATMs before accomplice strangled them
Coleman, Alton Multi-state killer who, along with his accomplice, murdered a man and injured another, murdered four women and three young girls, and raped a young girl
Cooks, Jessie Lee Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Copeland, Faye Along with her husband, Ray Copeland, the oldest couple ever sentenced to death in the United States
Copeland, Ray Along with his wife, Faye Copeland, the oldest couple ever sentenced to death in the United States
Corll, Dean Known as "The Candy Man" and "The Pied Piper". Crimes referred to as "The Houston Mass Murders"; raped and murdered boys and young men in Texas with the aid of teenaged accomplices David Owen Brooks and Elmer Wayne Henley
Davis, Girvies Accomplice of Richard Holman; killed robbery witnesses, saying it was "easier" than wearing a mask
Dieteman, Samuel Accomplice Dale Hausner Committed suicide in prison
Gallego, Gerald Accomplice Charlene Gallego released in 1997
Gecht, Robin Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Gordon, Steven Dean Sex offender who raped and strangled prostitutes in Santa Ana and Anaheim, California, aided by accomplice Franc Cano
Graham, Gwendolyn Accomplice of Cathy Wood; nurse's aide that preyed on elderly women in a Walker, Michigan nursing home
Green, Larry Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Gretzler, Douglas With accomplice Willie Steelman, killed witnesses to their robberies spree across California and Arizona
Henley, Elmer Wayne Crimes referred to as "The Houston Mass Murders"; accomplice of Dean Corll, who he later killed in self-defense
Herzog, Loren Along with accompliace Wesley Shermantine known as "The Speed Freak Killers"
Holman, Richard Accomplice of Girvies Davis; killed robbery witnesses
Kadamovas, Jurijus Accomplice of Iouri Mikhel; Lithuanian immigrant who kidnapped five people for ransom money in California and killed them
Knorr, Theresa Her sons, William and Robert Jr., were accomplices
Knotek, Michelle Tortured and abused boarders in her home with her husband
Kokoraleis, Andrew Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Kokoraleis, Thomas Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Koster, Brent Teenage accomplice of Danny Ranes, who actively participated in three of his four murders
Lake, Leonard Along with accomplice Charles Ng, they are also known as "The Operation Miranda Killers"
Lewingdon, Gary Together with brother Thaddeus Lewingdon, known as "The .22 Caliber Killers"
Lewingdon, Thaddeus Together with brother Gary Lewingdon, known as "The .22 Caliber Killers"
Malvo, Lee Boyd With accomplice John Allen Muhammad, perpetrated the D.C. sniper attacks
McCoy, Stephen Along with his accomplice, James Paster, the pair murdered three people in the Houston Area
Mikhel, Iouri Accomplice of Jurijus Kadamovas; Russian immigrant who kidnapped five people in California for ransom money and killed them
Moore, Manuel Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Muhammad, John Allen With accomplice Lee Boyd Malvo, perpetrated the D.C. sniper attacks
Neelley, Alvin Committed murders with wife Judith Neelley
Neelley, Judith Committed murders with husband Alvin Neelley
Ng, Charles Along with accomplice Leonard Lake, they are also known as "The Operation Miranda Killers"
Norris, Roy With accomplice Lawrence Bittaker known as "Tool Box Killers"
Pardo, Manuel South Florida former police officer who acted in partnership with Rolando Garcia; the two claimed to be ridding the world of drug dealers
Paster, James Along with his accomplice, Stephen McCoy, the pair murdered three people in the Houston Area. Paster confessed to two other murders for which he was never tried.
Ranes, Danny Kidnapped, raped and murdered women around Kalamazoo, Michigan with teenage accomplice Brent Koster
Schmid, Charles Known as "The Pied Piper of Tucson"; murdered three teenage girls in Arizona with the aid of local teenagers
Shermantine, Wesley Along with accompliace Loren Herzog, known as "The Speed Freak Killers"
Simon, J.C.X. Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Spreitzer, Edward Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Toole, Ottis Accomplice of Henry Lee Lucas; claimed to have murdered Adam Walsh
Wood, Cathy Accomplice of Gwendolyn Graham; nurse's aide that preyed on elderly women in a Walker, Michigan nursing home. Released on January 16, 2020
ACCOMPLICE CASES (56)
Note that the details of these crimes are quite unpleasant and are discussed in these references. The analysis in this article is only concerned with the proportion of cases that were conspiracies as defined in common usage — multiple offenders working together.
Programmed to Kill: The Politics of Serial Murder, Dave McGowan, August 2004 https://www.amazon.com/Programmed-Kill-Politics-Serial-Murder/dp/0595326404/
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics
"""
Short demo How to Display Grid Lines in MatPlotLib
(C) 2022 by Mathematical Software Inc.
http://www.mathematical-software.com/
"""
# Python Standard Library
import os
import sys
import time
# NumPy and MatPlotLib add on Python packages/modules
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
XRANGE = 5.0
CUBE_CONST = 1.5
ACCELERATION = 9.8
VELOCITY = -20.0
x = np.linspace(-XRANGE, XRANGE, 200)
y = CUBE_CONST*x**3 + 0.5*ACCELERATION*x**2 + VELOCITY*x
# simple MatPlotLib plot
f1 = plt.figure()
ax = plt.axes() # get plot axes
ax.set_facecolor('lightgray') # background color of plot
plt.plot(x, y, 'g-')
plt.title('Grid Lines in MatPlotLib DEMO')
plt.xlabel('X')
plt.ylabel(f'Y = {CUBE_CONST:.2f}*X3 + {0.5*ACCELERATION:.2f}*x**2' f' + {VELOCITY:.2f}*x)')
plt.grid(which='major', color='black')
plt.grid(which='minor', color='gray')
plt.minorticks_on() # need this to see the minor grid lines
plt.show(block=True)
f1.savefig('how_to_display_grid_lines_in_matplotlib.jpg',
dpi=300)
(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
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John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).