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John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
Main Web Site: https://mathematical-software.com/ Censored Search: https://censored-search.com/ A search engine for censored Internet content. Find the answers to your problems censored by advertisers and other powerful interests!
Subscribe to our free Weekly Newsletter for articles and videos on practical mathematics, Internet Censorship, ways to fight back against censorship, and other topics by sending an email to: subscribe [at] mathematical-software.com
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
This article takes a first look at historical Presidential approval ratings (approval polls from Gallup and other polling services) from Harry Truman through Joe Biden using our math recognition and automated model fitting technology. Our Math Recognition (MathRec) engine has a large, expanding database of known mathematics and uses AI and pattern recognition technology to identify likely candidate mathematical models for data such as the Presidential Approval ratings data. It then automatically fits these models to the data and provides a ranked list of models ordered by goodness of fit, usually the coefficient of determination or “R Squared” metric. It automates, speeds up, and increases the accuracy of data analysis — finding actionable predictive models for data.
The plots show a model — the blue lines — which “predicts” the approval rating based on unemployment rate (UNRATE), the real inflation adjusted value of gold, and time after the first inauguration of a US President — the so-called honeymoon period. The model “explains” about forty-three (43%) of the variation in the approval ratings. This is the “R Squared” or coefficient of determination for the model. The model has a correlation of about sixty-six percent (0.66) with the actual Presidential approval ratings. Note that a model can have a high correlation with data and yet the coefficient of determination is small.
One might expect US Presidential approval ratings to decline with increasing unemployment and/or an increase in the real value of gold reflecting uncertainty and anxiety over the economy. It is generally thought that new Presidents experience a honeymoon period after first taking office. This seems supported by the historical data, suggesting a honeymoon of about six months — with the possible exception of President Trump in 2017.
The model does not (yet) capture a number of notable historical events that appear to have significantly boosted or reduced the US Presidential approval ratings: the Cuban Missile crisis, the Iran Hostage Crisis, the September 11 attacks, the Watergate scandal, and several others. Public response to dramatic events such as these is variable and hard to predict or model. The public often seems to rally around the President at first and during the early stages of a war, but support may decline sharply as a war drags on and/or serious questions arise regarding the war.
There are, of course, a number of caveats on the data. Presidential approval polls empirically vary by several percentage points today between different polling services. There are several historical cases where pre-election polling predictions were grossly in error including the 2016 US Presidential election. A number of polls called the Dewey-Truman race in 1948 wrong, giving rise to the famous photo of President Truman holding up a copy of the Chicago Tribune announcing Dewey’s election victory.
The input data is from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) web site, much of it from various government agencies such as unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is a history of criticism of these numbers. Unemployment and inflation rate numbers often seem lower than my everyday experience. As noted, a number of economists and others have questioned the validity of federal unemployment, inflation and price level, and other economic numbers.
(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
Short video discussing results of analyzing President Biden’s declining approval ratings and the possible effect of the COVID pandemic and Ukraine crises on the approval ratings.
A detailed longer explanation of the analysis discussed can be found in the previous video “How to Analyze Simple Data Using Python” available on all of our video channels.
(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
Video on how to analyze simple data using the Python programming language using President Biden’s approval ratings as an example.
(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
Robert F. Kennedy Jr interview of David Martin from M-CAM, star of Plandemic II, censored by Instagram. BitChute forced to find new service providers in attempt to deplatform the alternative video service. Half-hearted censorship of President Trump voting fraud allegations. Sadly, Internet Censorship continues to expand worldwide.
References:
Children’s Health Defense (CHD / Robert Kennedy Jr’s organization)
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
How to Tell Scientifically if Advertising Works Explainer Video
[Slide 1]
“Half the money
I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which
half.”
This popular quote
sums up the problem with advertising.
[Slide 2]
There are many
advertising choices today including not advertising, relying on word
of mouth and other “organic” growth. Is the advertising
working?
[Slide 3]
Proxy measures such
as link clicks can be highly misleading. A bad advertisement can get
many clicks, even likes but reduce sales by making the product look
bad in an entertaining way.
[Animation Enter]
[Wait 2 seconds]
[Slide 4]
Did the advertising
increase sales and profits? This requires analysis of the product
sales and advertising expenses from your accounting program such as
QuickBooks. Raw sales reports are often difficult to interpret
unless the boost in sales is extremely large such as doubling sales.
Sales are random like flipping a coin. This means a small but
profitable increase such as twenty percent is often difficult to
distinguish from chance alone.
[Slide 5]
Statistical analysis
and computer simulation of a business can give a quantitative,
PREDICTIVE answer. We can measure the fraction of days with zero,
one, two, or more unit sales with advertising — the green bars in
the plot shown — and without advertising, the blue bars.
[Slide 6]
With these
fractions, we can simulate the business with and without advertising.
The bar chart shows
the results for one thousand simulations of a year of business
operations. Because sales are random like flipping a coin, there
will be variations in profit from simulation to simulation due to
chance alone.
The horizontal axis
shows the change in profits in the simulation compared to the actual
sales without advertising. The height of the bars shows the FRACTION
of the simulations with the change in profits on the horizontal axis.
The blue bars are
the fractions for one-thousand simulations without advertising.
[Animation Enter]
The green bars are
the fractions for one-thousand simulations with advertising.
[Animation Enter]
The vertical red bar
shows the average change in profits over ALL the simulations WITH THE
ADVERTISING.
There is ALWAYS an
increased risk from the fixed cost of the advertising — $500 per
month, $6,000 per year in this example. The green bars in the lower
left corner show the increased risk with advertising compared to the
blue bars without advertising.
If the advertising
campaign increases profits on average and we can afford the increased
risk, we should continue the advertising.
[Slide 7]
This analysis was
performed with Mathematical Software’s AdEvaluator Free Open Source
Software. AdEvaluator works for sales data where there is a SINGLE
change in the business, a new advertising campaign.
Our AdEvaluator Pro
software for which we will charge money will evaluate cases with
multiple changes such as a price change and a new advertising
campaign overlapping.
Click on the
Downloads TAB for our Downloads page.
[Web Site Animation
Exit]
[Download Links
Animation Entrance]
AdEvaluator can be
downloaded from GitHub or as a ZIP file directly from the downloads
page on our web site.
[Download Links
Animation Exit]
Or scan this QR code
to go to the Downloads page.
This is John F.
McGowan, Ph.D., CEO of Mathematical Software. I have many years
experience solving problems using mathematics and mathematical
software including work for Apple, HP Labs, and NASA. I can be
reached at ceo@mathematical-software.com
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
AdEvaluator™ evaluates the effect of advertising (or marketing, sales, or public relations) on sales and profits by analyzing a sales report in comma separated values (CSV) format from QuickBooks or other accounting programs. It requires a reference period without the advertising and a test period with the advertising. The advertising should be the only change between the two periods. There are some additional limitations explained in the on-line help for the program.
(C) 2019 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.
About Me
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
How to Tell Scientifically if Advertising Boosts Profits Video
Short (seven and one half minute) video showing how to evaluate scientifically if advertising boosts profits using mathematical modeling and statistics with a pitch for our free open source AdEvaluator™ software and a teaser for our non-free AdEvaluator Pro™software — coming soon.
John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).
