[Video] Biased YouTube Search Results on Israel Palestine

https://www.bitchute.com/video/5jHRwpblPSQr/

Short video on biased YouTube search results on the Israel Palestine conflict.

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(C) 2024 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Video] “Conspiracy Theory”: CIA Slogan or Liberal Mantra?

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Twenty minute video on the original of “conspiracy theory” as a pejorative slogan meaning a crazy, crackpot idea unsupported by facts or logic that any sane person would and should immediately dismiss. Did the CIA create “conspiracy theory” as a pejorative slogan in 1967? Does a declassified CIA memo from 1967 prove it? If not, where did the slogan come from?

Short Article:
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(C) 2023 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

The Worldview Prison

The large majority or possibly all people are unable to accept or even process data, even personal experiences, perceived to contradict their worldview. This is common human behavior. It is not a function of intelligence, education, social status, or any other obvious marker. In fact, highly educated intelligent people may be more prone to it as they are better equipped — like a good lawyer — to rationalize away obviously contradictory data or experiences.

One should not think of our “worldview” as a rigorous axiomatic system like Euclid’s Geometry or the precise logically consistent rules of games like chess. It is not rational in the usual sense. It appears to be a hodgepodge of elements and can often contain contradictory elements. It is highly social in nature, being comprised of direct personal experience and the claims of authority figures in groups we identify with such as our family, tribe or nation, profession etc. It is closely associated with our sense of group identity.

Many people can and do change their worldview but it usually follows sustained negative direct personal experiences over a period of years, very rarely less than six months. Data alone in the sense of books, newspaper articles, peer reviewed research papers, databases, spreadsheets etc. almost never changes the worldview.

Direct personal experiences, usually strongly negative, are the underlying cause in most cases. Once these have occurred and begin to work their way through the subconscious and conscious mind, the person will begin to seriously engage “data” whereas before they may not have even been able to “see” that very same data: ignoring it, dismissing it out of hand, reacting with great hostility to “obvious” baloney or lies.

It may be that an extreme traumatic event such as the loss of a loved one to an immediate negative reaction to a vaccine can cause an immediate change of worldview — less than six months — but this seems quite rare.

Beliefs about “science” and vaccines constitute a worldview or part of a worldview, especially for scientists, engineers and other technical people, for whom “science” constitutes an actual substitute for a religion or other spiritual beliefs.

Other psychological concepts such as “denial” and “cognitive dissonance” overlap with this concept of a rigid, difficult to change worldview. Cognitive biases seem strongest — most difficult to overcome — for elements of the worldview.

This behavior of the worldview in most, possibly all, people suggests that attempts to persuade others where the worldview of some or all may be involved should focus on drawing their attention to their own direct experiences, in-person experiments or demonstrations of contradictory phenomena, and persuading those for whom the issue is not connected to their worldview.

Gaslight Movie Poster (1944)

It is difficult, perhaps impossible, to distinguish true belief in a worldview from deliberate deception and fraud including “gaslighting” because the ability to perceive both experiences and “data” is substantially impaired. The “True Believer” genuinely cannot see obviously contradictory evidence that others can easily see.

Nor is there a sharp dividing line between true belief and fraud. Authority figures in the group may engage in Plato’s Noble Lies to protect the worldview (and often their power) not because they don’t mostly believe in the worldview but in the same way that parents simplify, hide, sugar-coat or flat out lie to children to protect them from complex or painful issues.

I have changed my worldview a few times (it is a rare occurrence). In all cases, the sequence of negative experiences preceded even conscious doubt of underlying assumptions in my worldview, by at least six months. The whole process took a couple of years in each case from start to finish.

Major scientific and technological breakthroughs frequently involve a change of worldview. The inventors and discoverers usually spend several years failing miserably before the flash of insight, the change of worldview occurs. The final flip can be quite fast but it is almost always preceded by long periods of failure. There are for example many accounts of the change of worldview, moment of insight, the “Heureka moment”, happening almost instantaneously on a contemplative walk or other break after a long period of hard but unsuccessful work.

Note that reading about the many failures of previous researchers does not lead the inventor or discoverer to abandon the prevailing wisdom of how to solve the problem. It usually appears to require personal repeated failure as well.

What does this mean both for persuading others and being sure of our own beliefs?

Direct personal experiences are more persuasive. Test your own beliefs if you can. In your own mind, clearly distinguish between the relatively small number of beliefs well founded in repeated clear direct personal experiences and those derived from others, generally external authorities in groups that you identify with.

This is easier said than done. For example, many people especially scientists and engineers are taught that it is “obvious” that the Earth is a sphere about 8,000 miles in diameter and believe it is obvious when in fact it is not — unless you have actually circumnavigated the Earth or flown on a space ship. Try demonstrating to yourself that the Earth is a sphere about 8,000 miles in diameter from only your own personal experience, not reciting claims by science popularizers such as the late Carl Sagan.

Get others to notice personal contradictory experiences and to test their beliefs first hand. This is not always possible. There is no guarantee of success. Remarkably we often consider elements of the worldview derived from the words of others (“everyone knows”) just as solid and true as those based on personal experience. Even more reliable in some cases — “how could everyone be wrong?” “How could all the experts be wrong?”

Psychoanalyzing people to their face is usually not persuasive. Most people find it offensive and patronizing. Most highly educated people are well aware of cognitive biases. It is in the news. Many are not aware there are social psychology studies that knowing about cognitive biases does not immunize you to them. Daniel Kahneman actually effectively retracted one chapter of his book which contained an obviously statistically under powered study. Even the experts are demonstrably vulnerable to confirmation bias and other cognitive biases.

https://replicationindex.com/category/kahneman/

Paradoxically, knowledge of cognitive biases including the extreme rigidity of the worldview provides a powerful set of tools to dismiss obviously contradictory experiences, evidence, and data. “I know about these biases and those nitwits over there do not. The data was cherry picked etc. etc.”

One should be cautious about accusing people of deliberate lying or gross stupidity where the worldview is likely involved as highly intelligent, educated “True Believers” are truly unable to see, accept or otherwise process contradictory data or even personal experiences. Nor is this unusual or pathological behavior. Most of us are True Believers in something.

The Blind Men and the Elephant

One should also keep in mind the parable of the Blind Men and the Elephant when different worldviews seem grossly incompatible. Each blind man, having never encountered an elephant before and touching a different part of the elephant, describes the elephant as like a “snake”, “a tree”, “a sharp spear”, etc. It may be that each contradictory worldview is substantially incomplete. All have some truth and all are wrong.

In the case of the worldview, in contrast to other beliefs, we are unable to treat it as provisional, as possibly wrong. We are True Believers in our worldview and our group is obviously right.

(C) 2023 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Success Through Failure] Blame Someone Else

(C) 2023 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Video] Is the “conspiracy theory” label stopping your from reaching your desired audience?

Is the “conspiracy theory” label stopping you from reaching your desired audience?

Has the thought-stopping pejorative phrase “conspiracy theory” ever caused serious problems discussing certain ideas or even objective facts with your audience, friends, family, or colleagues? Today even the simple word “conspiracy” is increasingly used this way. How can you overcome the thought stopping effect of “conspiracy theory” and expand your audience?

“Conspiracy theory” labelers frequently use superficially plausible arguments backed up by no data or a single or few examples. For example: “conspiracies will always or almost always fail because someone would have talked,” citing for example the exposure of the Watergate burglary failure and the downfall of Richard Nixon. This would for example suggest unsolved murders by conspiracies, such as “gang,” “Mafia” or “organized crime” killings are exceptionally rare or nonexistent.

What does the data actually tell us about the frequency and success rate of conspiracies?

For data and more details see:

Text Article URL: http://wordpress.jmcgowan.com/wp/conspiracies-what-does-the-data-show/

Video URL: https://www.bitchute.com/video/8rcV38ElvdDp/

(C) 2023 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

Conspiracies: What does the data show?

Introduction

“Conspiracy theory” is now a shorthand for crazy, irrational conspiracy theory from a nut or nuts used to quickly dismiss all sorts of ideas including even objective facts, generally applied when the “conspiracy theory” suggests misconduct or error by authority figures in a group the “conspiracy theory” labeler identifies strongly with.

“Conspiracy theory” has broadened to included related phrases: “conspiracy theorist,” “conspiracist”, “conspiracy thinking,” and even just “conspiracy.” In recent decades it is increasingly bundled with other thought stopping pejorative phrases such as “witch hunt,” “pseudoscience,” “denialist”, or “denier”.

Expanding Use of “Conspiracy Theory” and Related Pejorative Phrases

The shorthand pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” has expanded to include error theories that do not propose an actual conspiracy such as a laboratory leak of SARS-COV-2 at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and been used by high government officials such as Anthony Fauci and associates to stigmatize suggestions they may have made significant errors. “Conspiracy theory” has been frequently applied to the Mandela Effect and Graham Hancock’s lost civilization theories, recently expounded in the Netflix Ancient Apocalypse docuseries even though neither proposes a conspiracy.

This pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” represents a change in common usage of English that makes it difficult to either discuss or think about possible misconduct or error by groups of people, especially groups of powerful people. In this it resembles George Orwell’s fictional Newspeak in his novel 1984, a simplified English in which it is impossible to express or imagine error or misconduct by the ruling political party.

How, in fact, should we react when someone, especially authorities and experts shout “conspiracy theory” or “conspiracy theorist,” to dismiss something out of hand? Clearly one should not rely on pejorative labels such as “witch hunt,” “conspiracy theory,” “denialism,” or “pseudoscience” to dismiss alleged facts or actual conspiracy theories in the non-pejorative legal sense out of hand.

This does not depend on whether these labels were generated or centrally directed by the CIA, the Lyndon Johnson White House, the CPUSA, or any other group or real conspiracy. One needs to look at the actual facts and logic so labeled.

“Conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theorist,” and other related pejorative labels are frequently used as if to say: criminal conspiracies are essentially impossible or so rare as to be easily and quickly dismissed by any sane rational person. One in a thousand. One in a million. Even physically impossible.

The pejorative “conspiracy theory” or related labels are generally applied to theories about significant events. These events are most often assassinations, murders, or suspected murders such as the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Malcolm X, the alleged suicide of late “financier” Jeffrey Epstein and others, where the alleged or suspected conspirators are usually authority figures in the group or groups the “conspiracy theory” labeler identifies strongly with.

EventDate(s)KilledOfficial Cause
Assassination of Senator Huey LongSep. 10, 1935Huey Long, Carl WeissCarl Weiss acting alone, Weiss killed by Long’s bodyguards
JFK AssassinationNov 22, 1963John F. Kennedy, J.D. Tippit, Lee Harvey OswaldLee Harvey Oswald acting alone. Oswald killed by Jack Ruby acting alone.
Malcolm X AssassinationFebruary 21, 1965Malcolm X (born Malcolm Little)Originally convicted: Muhammad A. Aziz (exonerated)
Khalil Islam (exonerated)
Thomas Hagan

Conspiracy by enemies in the Nation of Islam.
MLK AssassinationApril 4, 1968Martin Luther KingJames Early Ray acting alone
RFK AssassinationJune 5, 1968Robert Francis KennedySirhan Sirhan acting alone
Oklahoma City BombingApril 19, 1995at least 168 peopleTimothy McVeigh, Terry Nichols
(Michael Fortier convicted of related offenses, but not the conspiracy, plea deal)
TWA Flight 800July 17, 1996230, all on boardaccidentally blew up
September 11 AttacksSeptember 11, 20012,996attributed to 19 hijackers acting on orders from Osama bin Laden
Anthrax attacksSeptember 18 – October 12, 20015 killedEventually blamed on researcher Bruce Ivins
Jeffrey Epstein “suicide”August 10, 20191 deadRuled a suicide
COVID-19 PandemicFall 2019 – PresentSeveral million worldwideUnknown
Most Prominent “Conspiracy Theories” Involve Homicide or Possible Homicide Cases

“Conspiracy theory” labelers frequently use superficially plausible arguments backed up by no data or a single or few examples. For example, conspiracies will always or almost always fail because someone would have talked, citing for example the exposure of the Watergate burglary failure and the downfall of Richard Nixon. This would for example suggest unsolved murders by conspiracies, such as “gang” murders, “Mafia” or “organized crime” murders, or Provisional IRA murders in Northern Ireland are exceptionally rare or nonexistent (see data below).

Conspiracy Data

There are laws against criminal conspiracy and people are convicted under these laws all the time. The FBI statistics on homicides for 2019 shows that about 14.7% of “cleared” (ostensibly solved) murders in 2019 involved at least one accomplice, a conspiracy in common usage.

FBI Attributes 14.7% of Murders with Known Offenders to Multiple Offenders in 2019

review of Wikipedia’s list of US serial killers showed that 56 of 553 identified serial killers active from 1950 to 2020 had accomplices, a conspiracy in common usage. This is 10.13% of the names listed. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices.  This provides a check on the FBI official numbers where the names of the killers and victims or at least forensic evidence of victims who could not be identified in some cases are available for independent review.

A review of US Presidential assassinations and plots showed that at least one of the four Presidential Assassinations (Lincoln) was clearly a conspiracy and 9-10 of 37 failed Presidential assassination attempts were conspiracies of some sort.

Unsolved Murders in United States

The FBI listed 27.8% of homicides in 2019 with an unknown offender or offenders.  The rate of unsolved murders in the United States has increased substantially since the early 1960s.   Police and other law enforcement officials in the United States often attribute unsolved murders to gang violence.  Gangs are conspiracies in common English usage.  

There is significant controversy over the fraction of unsolved murders due to gang violence.  The FBI’s Supplemental Homicide Reports (SHR) generally list about 7.4 percent of unsolved homicides as gang related (categories “Gangland killing” and “Juvenile gang killings”).  This usually appears to be based on the victim or victims being known to law enforcement as gang members.  A survey of Wikipedia’s lists of unsolved murders both in the United States and around the world, found sixty-eight (68) out of 820 unsolved murder cases (8.29%) with notes indicating a suspected “gang,” “mafia,” or “organized crime” murder.

US CIA Murders

The US CIA declassified evidence in the 1970s strongly suggesting their involvement in the assassinations/deaths of Patrice Lumumba in the Belgian Congo (later Zaire), Dominican Republic dictator Rafael Trujillo and his son, President of South Vietnam Ngo Dinh Diem and his brother, Salvador Allende in Chile, and unsuccessful plots to kill Cuban President Fidel Castro in league with the US Mafia.

The CIA also declassified some records in the 1970s of a series of mind control research programs, usually referred to popularly as MK-ULTRA, involving many prominent scientists (Martin Orne, Louis Jolyon West, Ewan Cameron, many others) and illegal experiments on uninformed test subjects and even children. The mind control programs were kept secret for about twenty years and much remains unknown about these programs. At least one participant, CIA officer Frank Olson fell, jumped, or was thrown to his death nine days after being surreptitiously dosed with LSD.

Unsolved Murders in Northern Ireland 

The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) has at least 1,186 unsolved murders from the so-called “Troubles,” civil conflict involving organized paramilitaries such as the Provisional IRA and the Ulster Defense Force (UDF), the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) (police, now the PSNI), the British Army and possibly intelligence related groups from the UK. This is out of about 3,200 murders  from January 1969 to the signing of the “Good Friday” agreement on April 10 1998 — considered the period of the “Troubles.”

Of the 1,186 killings that the PSNI’s Legacy
Investigation Branch is assessing:

  • 45.5% are attributed to republican
    paramilitaries. (loosely Irish Catholics, Communist
    groups)
  • 23% are attributed to loyalist paramilitaries.
    (loosely English and Ulster Scots Protestants)
  • 28.5% are
    attributed to the security forces. (loosely the UK British troops and
    intelligence groups)
  • For the remaining 3% of deaths, the
    background of those primarily responsible is unknown.

These represent still unsolved murders mostly attributed to large scale conspiratorial organizations. As with alleged unsolved gang related killings in the United States, proof is elusive. The politically charged 1972 disappearance/murder of Jean McConville, alleged to have been ordered by the Sinn Fein political party leader Gerry Adams in transcripts of “oral histories” collected by Boston College (USA) from former IRA members who claimed to have abducted and shot Jean McConville, has never been officially solved, although her body was discovered in 2004. Adams denies ever having been in the IRA, let alone being one of its leaders, or ordering the murder. (See, for example, Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland by Patrick Radden Keefe)

Unsolved Murders in Other Civil Conflicts

The conspiratorial civil conflict in Northern Ireland is unusual in taking place in a “first world,” western European “democracy.” Somewhat similar conflicts have occurred in many other nations with secretive revolutionary, quasi-governmental and governmental groups contending for power. Everything from the total number killed, number of unsolved murders, who killed whom and why, what constituted legitimate warfare versus war crimes is disputed. These include El Salvador’s civil war (1980-1992), Argentina’s “dirty war” in the 1970s and 1980s, civil conflict and war in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, civil conflict in South Africa in the 1980’s and early 1990s.

Arguably entire nations have devolved into criminal conspiracies with no rule of law, extensive secrecy and government lying to the population, and large numbers of executions including Nazi Germany, the Stalinist Soviet Union and China during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.

Conclusion

It is clearly rational to suspect conspiracies including high level conspiracies in unsolved or suspicious “solved” murders.  The likelihood of a conspiracy involved in an unsolved murder is probably at least 8%, simply using the fraction of unsolved murders where a “gang” or “mafia” is officially suspected by law enforcement.

(C) 2023 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Article] Want to Convince Skeptics? Don’t Claim the CIA Invented the “Conspiracy Theory” Label

Alex Jones repeating CIA invented “conspiracy theorist” claim from Lance deHaven-Smith’s Conspiracy Theory in America (2013)

“It’s like CIA after they assassinated Kennedy in 63, they admitted in 67 they created the word ‘conspiracy theorist'”

Alex Jones on YOUR WELCOME with Michael Malice #237 (about Dec. 20, 2022)

Do you suspect conspiracies of powerful people are behind some important problems? Do you suspect President Kennedy was killed by a conspiracy? COVID-19 leaked from a gain of function lab?

Have you been dismissed, ridiculed, even angrily insulted by friends, family, or colleagues uncritically chanting the thought-stopping “conspiracy theory” label? How can you get friends, family, or colleagues to seriously consider the actual facts and logic?

A popular method is to claim that the CIA invented the pejorative label “conspiracy theorist” and/or “conspiracy theory” to counter critics of the Warren Commission Report on the assassination of President Kennedy. Several variations of this claim exist. They are derived from the book Conspiracy Theory in America (2013) by Lance deHaven-Smith which does claim this, citing a January 1967 CIA cable to overseas CIA stations declassified in the 1970s.

Conspiracy Theory in America (2013) Book Cover

This claim is unproven despite the affirmative statements in the book. The evidence presented in Conspiracy Theory in America is weak at best, consisting primarily of the 1967 cable.

Historical Growth in Use of “Conspiracy” Related Pejorative Labels
Moderate Increase in Usage of “conspiracy theory” after JFK Assassinated (1964-1971) Levels Off

Contrary to claims, the phrase “conspiracy theory” was used in the modern pejorative sense occasionally in the 1940’s and 1950s, in philosopher Karl Popper’s The Open Society and its enemies (first published in 1943) and in Columbia University historian Richard Hofstadter’s Pulitzer Prize winning the Age of Reform in 1955. Popper used “conspiracy theory” as shorthand for “conspiracy theory of society,” which he ridiculed. Hofstadter used “conspiracy theory” as shorthand for his “conspiracy theory of history” which he ridiculed much the same as Popper. This language spread slowly among intellectuals and political junkies in the 40s and 50s, accelerating with the assassination of Kennedy in November 1963 for several years.

The CIA cable uses the phrases “conspiracy theories,” “conspiracy theorists,” and “conspiracy talk” each once in the cable which outlines factual and logical arguments to rebut critics of the Warren Commission.

The cable does not direct CIA stations to use the “conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theorist”, or “conspiracy talk” phrases in rebuttals, nor outlines a campaign to use the phrases as marketing slogans similar to advertising/PR campaigns such as Wendy’s Restaurant’s highly successful “Where’s the Beef?” campaign in 1984/85.

“Where’s the Beef” usage soars with Wendy’s Ad Campaign — Hijacked by Walter Mondale to shoot down Senator Gary Hart

There is no spike in use of “conspiracy theory” or “conspiracy theorist” in 1967, only a moderate increase in use that started in 1964 and leveled off in 1971. The “conspiracy theory” language was used to attack both critics of the Warren Commission, Senator Barry Goldwater, his followers, and the then highly publicized John Birch Society. The pejorative label “conspiracy theorist” did not start to be used until the late 1970s, even then rarely, and took off in the late 1980s as shown in the plot above.

Claiming the CIA invented “conspiracy theorist” or “conspiracy theory” and/or citing deHaven-Smith’s book is preaching to the converted. Dismissive or hostile family, friends, and colleagues will examine the book and correctly find its claims unproven and weak at best. This will almost certainly add to their skepticism and willingness to dismiss facts and logic labeled “conspiracy theory” by authority figures they trust.

Want to know more?

Our article “Did the CIA Create the ‘Conspiracy Theory’ Label?” is a detailed review of Conspiracy Theory in America with a detailed analysis of deHaven-Smith’s claims. Our video “Did the CIA Invent the ‘Conspiracy Theory’ Label?” reviews the same material in an audo/video format.

(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Book Review] Did the CIA Create the “Conspiracy Theory” Label?

Introduction

Have you ever dismissed something out of hand because you thought it was a “conspiracy theory” or someone told you it was a “conspiracy theory?” Did you dismiss the possibility COVID-19 leaked from a gain of function laboratory because authorities and social media companies initially labeled this theory a “conspiracy theory?” How can you protect yourself from official misinformation labeling inconvenient truths as “conspiracy theories?”

Did the CIA promote the use of the phrase “conspiracy theory” as a pejorative thought-stopping shorthand for “crazy, unhinged conspiracy theory with little or no evidence, no likelihood of being true, conceived and promoted by paranoid, mentally unstable ‘conspiracy theorists'” at first to shut down criticism of the Warren Commission report and suspicions of CIA complicity specifically in the assassination of President Kennedy?

Did the CIA expand the use of this “weaponized” phrase to shutdown suspicions of official and specifically CIA complicity in many subsequent events such as the September 11 attacks? Did the CIA explicitly order and initiate this propaganda program in a now declassified January 1967 cable to CIA station offices overseas? This is the thesis of Lance deHaven-Smith’s 2013 book Conspiracy Theory in America, recently (December 15, 2022) cited by Tucker Carlson on FOX news in a segment alleging an unidentified CIA source claimed the CIA was “involved” in the assassination of President Kennedy.

Conspiracy Theory in America Book Cover

“Conspiracy theory” is now a shorthand for “crazy, irrational, evidence challenged conspiracy theory from a nut or nuts” used to quickly dismiss all sorts of ideas including solid data, generally applied when the “conspiracy theory” suggests misconduct or error by authority figures in a group the “conspiracy theory” labeler identifies strongly with.

Wikipedia now has a lengthy page devoted to this popular culture meaning of “conspiracy theory,” not the literal meaning of the phrase. Note that Wikipedia pages are often unreliable on topics labeled as “conspiracy theories” and are becoming even more unreliable; it is better to seek primary sources on these topics.

“Conspiracy theory” has broadened to included related phrases: “conspiracy theorist,” “conspiracist”, “conspiratorial thinking,” “conspiracy thinking,” and even just “conspiracy.”

The shorthand pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” has expanded to include theories that do not involve an actual conspiracy such as a laboratory leak of SARS-COV-2 at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and been used by high government officials such as Anthony Fauci and associates to stigmatize suggestions they may have made significant errors. “Conspiracy theory” has been frequently applied to the Mandela Effect and Graham Hancock’s lost civilization theories, recently expounded in the Netflix Ancient Apocalypse docuseries even though neither proposes a conspiracy.

This pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” represents a change in common usage of English that makes it difficult to either discuss or think about possible misconduct or error by groups of people, especially groups of powerful people. In this it resembles Orwell’s fictional newspeak in 1984, a simplified English in which it is impossible to express or imagine error or misconduct by the ruling political party.

Where did this now pervasive usage of the phrase “conspiracy theory,” and increasingly the other related phrases mentioned above come from? Did it come from a CIA program or some other source? Is its’ use and meaning centrally controlled or directed in some way? If so, by whom — the CIA or some other organization or group?

This review focuses primarily on the unsubstantiated claim in the book Conspiracy Theory in America that a CIA program presumably started by the January 1967 cable reprinted in the appendix of the book invented and heavily promoted the pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” to discredit critics of the Warren Commission report on the assassination of President Kennedy, presumably expanding to many other events also mentioned in the book, such as the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Clearly one should not rely on pejorative labels such as “witch hunt,” “conspiracy theory,” “denialism,” or “pseudoscience” to dismiss alleged facts or actual conspiracy theories in the non-pejorative legal sense out of hand. This does not depend on whether these labels were generated or centrally directed by the CIA, the Lyndon Johnson White House, the Communist Party of the United States (CPUSA), or any other group or real conspiracy. One needs to look at the actual facts and logic so labeled.

The Conspiracy Theory in America book fails to prove or even present strong evidence of a CIA program (conspiracy) to promote the use of “conspiracy theory” as a pejorative label. Thus, citing Conspiracy Theory in America will usually fail to convince those who rely on the pejorative label to dismiss something out of hand to think carefully about alleged “conspiracy theories.” If they take the time to read the book, they will see the case is weak at best and this will likely add to their skepticism of ideas labeled “conspiracy theories” by authority figures they trust.

Conspiracy Theory in America Fails to Prove Its’ Case

The book fails to make the case that the pejorative meaning of “conspiracy theory” and “conspiracy theorist” was invented and promoted by the CIA and/or there was a CIA program to do this.

The book cites a single CIA dispatch cable from January 1967. This cable does use the phrases “conspiracy theories,” “conspiracy theorists”, and “conspiracy talk,” once each in directing CIA stations to rebut criticism of the Warren Report in overseas newspapers etc. The cable (see appendix below), focuses on logical and factual counter-arguments to critics of the Warren Report alone.

The 1967 CIA cable does not recommend the use of any of these phrases as a marketing slogan conveying the associated implicit arguments now familiar to us, eg. that conspiracy theorists are unhinged lunatics with no supporting evidence etc.

Common Thought Stopping Pejorative Labels (except for “conspiracy talk” used in 1967 CIA cable)

The book presents only one letter from John P. Roche, a special assistant to President Lyndon Johnson, published in the London Times Literary Supplement in January of 1968, one year later, as evidence of the hypothetical CIA program. Keep in mind, several news articles with similar points were published in the United States in 1964, often seeking to rebut author Hans Habe’s Tod in Dallas (German), published in the US as The Wounded Land: Journey Through a Divided America (January 1, 1964) and using the language “conspiracy theory of history,” echoing historian Richard Hofstadter from his Pulitzer prize winning The Age of Reform published in 1955 (about which more below). See Appendix II for a list of matches for “conspiracy theory” in Newspapers only in Google Books for calendar year 1964.

In fact, “conspiracy theory” had been used in a critical way in the 1950’s and even earlier and increased substantially during 1964, 1965 and 1966 domestically in the wake of the assassination of President Kennedy (Nov 22, 1963), being used several times in the modern pejorative sense. This increase begins well before the January 1967 CIA cable, does not accelerate after 1967, eventually leveling off in 1971 for several years.

Use of “conspiracy theory” increases from 1964 to 1971, then levels off for several years.

The phrase “conspiracy theory” is used pejoratively by Life Magazine in reviewing favorably the then recently published Warren Report in October of 1964.

Various people insist that it is a monstrous cover-up for a conspiracy, that the Warren Commission suppressed important facts and loaded its presentation to support the thesis that the President was murdered by one man acting on his own mad initiative.

Such views fly straight in the face of the most conscientious documentation of facts I have ever read. Of course, there will always be people who refuse to believe what they don’t want to believe. There seem to be a lot of other people around who actually need the conspiracy theory. It is as if there were more logic and order to the notion that President Kennedy was the victim of some dark, complex plot than to the idea that Oswald did it because he was drowning in the world and wanted to destroy a big man for it.

Life Magazine, Oct 16, 1964, page 35, The View From Here / Loudon Wainwright

The phrase “conspiracy theory” is used pejoratively in the campaign against the John Birch Society and Arizona Senator and failed 1964 Republican Presidential candidate Barry Goldwater as well — and at the same time during the 1960s.

Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater in 1960

It is only a short step to the conclusion that a secret conspiracy is at work to frustrate the Senator [Goldwater] and keep him from the presidency.

The conspiracy or devil theory of politics simplifies life for those who embrace it. Any setback can be blamed on the devils conspiring against you. The devil for the Goldwaterites is something variously called “the Eastern establishment” or “the Eastern conspiracy,” and at its heart are press, radio, and television.

At times the Senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory.

Washington Calling: A True Test for Barry? by Marquis Childs, Dayton Beach Morning Journal, June 20, 1964

In 1964, the phrase “conspiracy theory” was used pejoratively more than in previous years both to ridicule critics of the Warren Commission report and Goldwater and his followers. The increase in use during 1965 and 1966 targeted both critics of the Warren Commission report and the John Birch Society, often linked to Goldwater even after his defeat in 1964.

What do Successful Campaigns to Promote a Slogan Look Like?

Wendy’s Restaurant “Where’s the Beef” Campaign 1984-1985
Jump in use of Bill Cosby following launch of The Cosby Show in 1984

We can see that the “Where’s the Beef?” and “Bill Cosby Show” campaigns were far more successful than any CIA program initiated in January 1967 or even immediately after the assassination of President Kennedy. There is no sharp spike in use of “conspiracy theory” in 1967 or earlier in 1964, just a slow moderate increase leveling off in 1971.

In contrast to “conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theorist,” another phrase in the 1967 CIA cable was hardly used until the late 1970s. “Conspiracy talk” has never caught on.

Did the CIA Invent the “Witch Hunt” Label?

One of the most widely used, effective thought-stopping pejorative labels is “witch hunt,” used by President Trump amongst others.

“Witch Hunt” and related phrases rarely used before 1930s
“witch hunt” compared to “conspiracy theory”

“Conspiracy theory” did not overtake “witch hunt” in popular usage until the late seventies, ten years after the January 1967 CIA cable cited by Conspiracy Theory in America. The count of usage of “conspiracy theory” includes both the now common pejorative sense and the historical literal legal sense, almost the only use before the 1940s and still quite common in the 1960s and 70s.

The dramatic surge in the use of “witch hunt” from 1935 to about 1955 was in response to the anti-communist investigations of the period, dropping sharply in about 1955 after the censure of Senator Joseph McCarthy. Looking in detail through the Google Books database used to generate the plots above, a large majority of the uses of “witch hunt” between 1935 and 1955 are criticisms of these investigations — probably about 80 to 90 percent. The phrase “witch hunt” was also used less frequently to criticize attacks on comic books, attacks on rock and roll music, and various investigations of organized crime and corporate misconduct.

The pejorative phrase “witch hunt” was popularized during this period mostly by liberal and left wing writers such as Communist Party chief William Z Foster in the book The Rankin Witch Hunt (1945) referring the US Representative John Rankin of Mississippi, Carey McWilliams in Witch Hunt: The Revival of Heresy (1950), and playwright Arthur Miller with his hit play The Crucible (1953) using a fictionalized version of the Salem witch trials of 1692 as an allegory for the anti-communist investigations of Senator McCarthy and others. As the above plots show, the popularization of “witch hunt” as a pejorative label, used not unlike “conspiracy theory” today, predates both the foundation of the CIA in 1947 and its predecessor agency the OSS (Office of Strategic Services) in 1942.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was founded in 1908 well before the popularization of “witch hunt” as a pejorative label illustrated above. The FBI had heavily infiltrated the Communist Party and other left wing organizations. It seems at least possible the FBI could have engineering the popularization of the phrase which was frequently used to attack the FBI’s own investigations. This does however seem rather improbable.

Where Did the Use of “Conspiracy Theory” as a Pejorative Label Come From?

Before the 1940’s, “conspiracy theory” appears almost exclusively as a technical term in legal contexts, especially court cases involving labor law or antitrust. Occasionally — rarely — it is used in a neutral, non-pejorative way to describe suggested conspiracies in current or historical events. For example, “conspiracy theory” is used in a literal, non-pejorative sense in criticism of Alfred Milner’s activities in South Africa in the early 20th century in some books — as in the author suspects Milner of a conspiracy.

This neutral usage of “conspiracy theory” however began to change in the late forties and fifties with the publication of philosopher Karl Popper’s The Open Society and Its’ Enemies which uses the phrase “conspiracy theory of society” in a highly pejorative sense as a nutty, impossible, irrational idea and the phrase “conspiracy theory” as shorthand for “conspiracy theory of society” or a specific theory.

In 1955, Columbia University historian Richard Hofstadter published his Pulitzer Prize winning book The Age of Reform which features the phrase “conspiracy theory of history” in a highly pejorative fashion ridiculing the ideas and theories of the 19th century Populists and “conspiracy theory” as shorthand. The book features an entire section “History as Conspiracy” ridiculing the “conspiracy theory of history” and specific Populist “conspiracy theories.” In 1964, both “conspiracy theory of history” and “conspiracy theory” were invoked repeatedly in articles defending the Warren Commission report and dismissing Hans Habe’s book, published in January 1964, suggesting a conspiracy behind the assassination of President Kennedy.

Richard Hofstadter, a former Communist, had at least indirect ties and funding from the CIA according to his biographer David Brown:

Hofstadter’s studies on higher education were influenced by his work for the American Committee for Cultural Freedom (ACCF), a society of liberal cold warriors opposed to international communism. The committee’s parental affiliate, the Congress for Cultural Freedom, enjoyed lavish funding from the CIA as part of a broadly structured effort to emphasize the West’s commitment to literary, scientific, and artistic integrity. As one commentator put it, the congress hoped to “nudge the intelligentsia of Western Europe away from its lingering fascination with Marxism and Communism towards a view more accommodating of `the American way”‘.’ It is unclear whether the CIA funded the committee, but at least two periodicals that published Hofstadter’s work in the early sixties (Daedalus and Encounter) benefited from ClA largesse. Hofstadter was probably unaware of their covert affiliation -the New York Times broke the story in 1967 – though his wry sense of humor would no doubt have appreciated the strange irony of a massive propaganda campaign to promote American intellectual freedom carried out by the nation’s chief intelligence organization.

David S. Brown. Richard Hofstadter: An Intellectual Biography (Kindle Locations 1234-1237). Kindle Edition.
Pejorative Political Labels

Hofstadter’s primary target in The Age of Reform (1955), his contribution to Daniel Bell’s The Radical Right (1963), and The Paranoid Style in American Politics (1964), all of which promote and define the crazy conspiracy theory and conspiracy theorist trope appears to be the political right wing, especially the John Birch Society, Goldwater, and Goldwater’s followers. At the time, the phrases “extremist” and “radical right” were used much more heavily in these attacks than “conspiracy theory” and “conspiracy theorist”.

I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.

Barry Goldwater’s Final Paragraph Republican Nomination Acceptance Speech (July 16, 1964) responding to the “extremist” label.

As the years have progressed “conspiracy theory” has been used more and more, often as a shorthand for the ideas in Hofstadter’s “conspiracy theory of history” and Popper’s “conspiracy theory of society.” This appears to have been a slow evolution in usage and meaning, possibly accelerated by the hit 1993-2003 X-Files TV show which featured a mysterious UFO related government conspiracy blamed in at least one episode for the JFK assassination (“Musings of a Cigarette Smoking Man,” 1996).

Many Other Flaws in Conspiracy Theory in America

This review focuses on the claim that Conspiracy Theory in America proves that the CIA invented the pejorative slogan “conspiracy theory” to suppress criticism of the Warren Commission report on the assassination of President Kennedy, expanding its use to many other events, what deHaven-Smith labels State Crimes Against Democracy (SCAD). The book is best known and cited for this repeatedly. However, there are many other faults in the book that will be obvious to a critical reader.

Lance deHaven-Smith (1951-2022) was the Reuben Askew Professor at the Reuben O’Donovan Askew School of Public Administration and Policy, Florida State University. Reuben Askew was the former Democratic governor of Florida from January 5, 1971 to January 2, 1979. He then served as US Trade Representative under President Jimmy Carter from October 1, 1979 to December 31, 1980.

Askew later joined the Board of Directors of Abel Holtz’s Capital Bank of Miami (not to be confused with Capital One) in the 1980s, a curious bank later plagued by a series of scandals. Regulators forced Holtz to resign in 1994. The bank was acquired by Union Planters Bank in 1997. These scandals attracted some recent attention when President Trump pardoned Abel Holtz in January 2021. deHaven-Smith was a close friend of Governor Askew.

As his friendship with Governor Askew suggests, Lance deHaven-Smith was a strong partisan of the Democratic Party and this is evident in many places in Conspiracy Theory in America. For example:

The Democrats also have political criminality—Lyndon Johnson was possibly a principal in the assassination of President Kennedy, and he misled Congress and the American people about the Gulf of Tonkin incident. But the Democrats do not appear to have developed, at least not yet, a political philosophy that condones high crimes in the name of policy objectives.

ASSASSINATION TARGETS

The range of officials targeted for assassination in the post-WWII era is limited to those most directly associated with foreign policy: presidents (and presidential candidates) and senators. High-ranking officials in the federal government have seldom been murdered even though many have attracted widespread hostility and opposition. No vice presidents have been assassinated, nor have any U.S. Supreme Court justices. The only member of the U.S. House of Representatives who has been targeted is Gabrielle Giffords in January 2011.

deHaven-Smith, Lance. Conspiracy Theory in America (Discovering America) (Kindle Locations 2053-2061). University of Texas Press. Kindle Edition.

deHaven-Smith includes Senator Paul Wellstone’s death in a plane crash (officially) in his list of SCADs — but not US Senator Huey Long in 1935 who was gunned down in October of 1935, one month after alleging President Roosevelt was conspiring with his enemies in Louisiana to kill him. Post World War II, in addition to the attempted assassination of Gabrielle Giffords, US Representative (R-GA) Larry McDonald, the leader of the afore mentioned John Birch Society, was killed when the Soviet Air Force shot down Korean Airlines Flight 007 on September 1, 1983. Surely if Paul Wellstone belongs on this list, a US Representative killed by military action ought to be on the list.

deHaven-Smith also does not mention the disappearance of Louisiana Representative Hale Boggs, a member of the Warren Commission who supposedly died in a plane crash in 1971. The plane and Boggs remains were never found.

Nor does he mention California Representative Leo Ryan, apparently murdered on November 18, 1978 by a hit team sent by the Reverend Jim Jones, a curious fixture in San Francisco Democratic Party politics in the 1970s. Nor does he express any suspicions regarding the assassinations of San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk, both with close ties to Jim Jones, only days later on November 27, 1978.

Knowledgeable liberal or left-wing readers may complain that “conservative” Supervisor Dan White was convicted of the murders of Moscone and Milk. Dan White was in fact a Democrat which is rarely mentioned. Surely the timing is rather suspicious.

Warren Commission critic attorney Mark Lane, Lee Harvey Oswald’s mother’s attorney and author of Rush to Judgment, one of the earliest best sellers challenging the Warren Report, was in fact an advisor to Reverend Jones in Guyana and somehow survived the mass suicide of Jones and his followers shortly after Representative Ryan’s murder.

This pro-Democrat double standard and motivated reasoning is evident in many places in the book. There is a lack of consistent standards for what constitutes a suspected SCAD and a lack of controls such as looking at other phrases such as “witch hunt” or “where’s the beef” in drawing conclusions.

Conclusion

The Google NGRAM viewer evidence suggests the modern pejorative “conspiracy theory” label and related phrases such as “conspiracy theorist” evolved from Popper’s “conspiracy theory of society” and Hofstadter’s “conspiracy theory of history” (1955) over many years, growing in use and pejorative meaning. This predates the January 1967 CIA cable cited by Conspiracy Theory in America by Lance deHaven-Smith (2013).

Given Richard Hofstadter’s at least indirect ties to the CIA, it is difficult to rule out a longer term program initiated in the 1950’s or even late 1940s, although the motivation is unclear.

Clearly one should not rely on pejorative labels such as “witch hunt,” “conspiracy theory,” “denialism,” or “pseudoscience” to dismiss alleged facts or actual conspiracy theories in the non-pejorative legal sense out of hand. This does not depend on whether these labels were generated or centrally directed by the CIA, the Lyndon Johnson White House, the CPUSA, or any other group or real conspiracy. One needs to look at the actual facts and logic so labeled.

Since the Conspiracy Theory in America book fails to prove or even present strong evidence (for example, the program documents and budgets for the MK-ULTRA mind control research programs declassified by the CIA) of a CIA program (conspiracy) to promote the use of “conspiracy theory” as a pejorative label, citing this book to convince those who rely on the pejorative label to dismiss something out of hand (conspiracy dismissers) to think carefully about alleged “conspiracy theories” will usually fail. If they read the book, they will see the evidence is quite weak and this will likely increase their skepticism of anything labeled a “conspiracy theory” by authority figures they trust.

“Conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theorist,” and other related pejorative labels are frequently used as if to say criminal conspiracies are essentially impossible or so rare as to be easily and quickly dismissed by any sane rational person.

There are laws against criminal conspiracy and people are convicted under these laws all the time. The FBI statistics on homicides for 2019 shows that about 14.7% of “cleared” (ostensibly solved) murders in 2019 involved at least one accomplice, a conspiracy in common usage.

FBI Attributes 14.7% of Murders with Known Offenders to Multiple Offenders in 2019

review of Wikipedia’s list of US serial killers showed that 56 of 553 identified serial killers active from 1950 to 2020 had accomplices, a conspiracy in common usage. This is 10.13% of the names listed. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices.  This provides a check on the FBI official numbers where the names of the killers and victims or at least forensic evidence of victims who could not be identified in some cases are available for independent review.

A review of US Presidential assassinations and plots showed that at least one of the four Presidential Assassinations (Lincoln) was clearly a conspiracy and 9-10 of 37 failed Presidential assassination attempts were conspiracies of some sort.

The US CIA declassified evidence in the 1970s strongly suggesting their involvement in the assassinations/deaths of Patrice Lumumba in the Belgian Congo (later Zaire), Dominican Republic dictator Rafael Trujillo and his son, President of South Vietnam Ngo Dinh Diem and his brother, Salvador Allende in Chile, and unsuccessful plots to kill Cuban President Fidel Castro in league with the US Mafia.

The CIA also declassified some records in the 1970s of a series of mind control research programs, usually referred to popularly as MK-ULTRA, involving many prominent scientists (Martin Orne, Louis Jolyon West, Ewan Cameron, many others) and illegal experiments on uninformed test subjects and even children. The mind control programs were kept secret for about twenty years and much remains unknown about these programs.

The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) has at least 1,186 unsolved murders from the so-called “Troubles,” civil conflict involving organized paramilitaries such as the Provisional IRA and the Ulster Defense Force (UDF), the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) (police), the British Army and possibly intelligence related groups from the UK. This is out of about 3,200 murders  from January 1969 to the signing of the “Good Friday” agreement on April 10 1998 — considered the period of the “Troubles.”

Of the 1,186 killings that the PSNI’s Legacy Investigation Branch is assessing:

  • 45.5% are attributed to republican paramilitaries. (loosely Irish Catholics, Communist groups)
  • 23% are attributed to loyalist paramilitaries. (loosely English and Ulster Scots Protestants)
  • 28.5% are attributed to the security forces. (loosely the UK British troops and intelligence groups)
  • For the remaining 3% of deaths, the background of those primarily responsible is unknown.

These represent still unsolved murders mostly attributed to large scale conspiratorial organizations. As with alleged unsolved gang related killings in the United States, proof is elusive. The politically charged 1972 disappearance/murder of Jean McConville, alleged to have been ordered by the Sinn Fein political party leader Gerry Adams in tape recordings of “oral histories” collected by Boston College (USA) from former IRA members who claimed to have abducted and shot Jean McConville, has never been officially solved, although her body was discovered in 2004. Adams denies ever having been in the IRA, let alone being one of its leaders, or ordering the murder. (See, for example, Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland by Patrick Radden Keefe)

It is clearly rational to suspect conspiracies including high level conspiracies in unsolved or suspicious “solved” murders.

(C) 2023 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

Appendix I: The January 1967 CIA Cable

This is quoted from Lance deHaven-Smith’s Conspiracy Theory in America (2013) Kindle version. The occurrences of the phrases “conspiracy theories,” “conspiracy theorists” and “conspiracy talk” are bolded below. Note that only “conspiracy theory” and “conspiracy theorist” have become modern pejorative labels. Note also there is no direction to use these as marketing slogans as in an advertising of PR campaign where specific phrases — slogans and taglines — are selected.

APPENDIX

CIA Dispatch #1035-960

This retyped copy of CIA Dispatch #1035-960 was checked against http://www.jfklancer.com/CIA.html (accessed May 2012).

Marked PSYCH and Destroy when no longer needed RE: Concerning Criticism of the Warren Report

  1. Our Concern. From the day of President Kennedy’s assassination on, there has been speculation about the responsibility for his murder. Although this was stemmed for a time by the Warren Commission report (which appeared at the end of September 1964), various writers have now had time to scan the Commission’s published report and documents for new pretexts for questioning, and there has been a new wave of books and articles criticizing the Commission’s findings. In most cases the critics have speculated as to the existence of some kind of conspiracy, and often they have implied that the Commission itself was involved. Presumably as a result of the increasing challenge to the Warren Commission’s report, a public opinion poll recently indicated that 46% of the American public did not think that Oswald acted alone, while more than half of those polled thought that the Commission had left some questions unresolved. Doubtless polls abroad would show similar, or possibly more adverse results.
  2. This trend of opinion is a matter of concern to the U.S. government, including our organization. The members of the Warren Commission were naturally chosen for their integrity, experience and prominence. They represented both major parties, and they and their staff were deliberately drawn from all sections of the country. Just because of the standing of the Commissioners, efforts to impugn their rectitude and wisdom tend to cast doubt on the whole leadership of American society. Moreover, there seems to be an increasing tendency to hint that President Johnson himself, as the one person who might be said to have benefited, was in some way responsible for the assassination. Innuendo of such seriousness affects not only the individual concerned, but also the whole reputation of the American government. Our organization itself is directly involved: among other facts, we contributed information to the investigation. Conspiracy theories have frequently thrown suspicion on our organization, for example by falsely alleging that Lee Harvey Oswald worked for us. The aim of this dispatch is to provide material countering and discrediting the claims of the conspiracy theorists, so as to inhibit the circulation of such claims in other countries. Background information is supplied in a classified section and in a number of unclassified attachments.
  3. Action. We do not recommend that discussion of the assassination question be initiated where it is not already taking place. Where discussion is active [business] addresses are requested:

a. To discuss the publicity problem with [?] and friendly elite contacts (especially politicians and editors), pointing out that the Warren Commission made as thorough an investigation as humanly possible, that the charges of the critics are without serious foundation, and that further speculative discussion only plays into the hands of the opposition. Point out also that parts of the conspiracy talk appear to be deliberately generated by Communist propagandists. Urge them to use their influence to discourage unfounded and irresponsible speculation.

b. To employ propaganda assets to [negate] and refute the attacks of the critics. Book reviews and feature articles are particularly appropriate for this purpose. The unclassified attachments to this guidance should provide useful background material for passing to assets. Our ploy should point out, as applicable, that the critics are (I) wedded to theories adopted before the evidence was in, (II) politically interested, (III) financially interested, (IV) hasty and inaccurate in their research, or (V) infatuated with their own theories. In the course of discussions of the whole phenomenon of criticism, a useful strategy may be to single out Epstein’s theory for attack, using the attached Fletcher [?] article and Spectator piece for background. (Although Mark Lane’s book is much less convincing than Epstein’s and comes off badly where confronted by knowledgeable critics, it is also much more difficult to answer as a whole, as one becomes lost in a morass of unrelated details.) 4. In private to media discussions not directed at any particular writer, or in attacking publications which may be yet forthcoming, the following arguments should be useful: a. No significant new evidence has emerged which the Commission did not consider. The assassination is sometimes compared (e.g., by Joachim Joesten and Bertrand Russell) with the Dreyfus case; however, unlike that case, the attacks on the Warren Commission have produced no new evidence, no new culprits have been convincingly identified, and there is no agreement among the critics. (A better parallel, though an imperfect one, might be with the Reichstag fire of 1933, which some competent historians (Fritz Tobias, A. J. P. Taylor, D. C. Watt) now believe was set by Vander Lubbe on his own initiative, without acting for either Nazis or Communists; the Nazis tried to pin the blame on the Communists, but the latter have been more successful in convincing the world that the Nazis were to blame.) b. Critics usually overvalue particular items and ignore others. They tend to place more emphasis on the recollections of individual witnesses (which are less reliable and more divergent and hence offer more hand-holds for criticism) and less on ballistics, autopsy, and photographic evidence. A close examination of the Commission’s records will usually show that the conflicting eyewitness accounts are quoted out of context, or were discarded by the Commission for good and sufficient reason.

c. Conspiracy on the large scale often suggested would be impossible to conceal in the United States, esp. since informants could expect to receive large royalties, etc. Note that Robert Kennedy, Attorney General at the time and John F. Kennedy’s brother, would be the last man to overlook or conceal any conspiracy. And as one reviewer pointed out, Congressman Gerald R. Ford would hardly have held his tongue for the sake of the Democratic administration, and Senator Russell would have had every political interest in exposing any misdeeds on the part of Chief Justice Warren. A conspirator moreover would hardly choose a location for a shooting where so much depended on conditions beyond his control: the route, the speed of the cars, the moving target, the risk that the assassin would be discovered. A group of wealthy conspirators could have arranged much more secure conditions.

d. Critics have often been enticed by a form of intellectual pride: they light on some theory and fall in love with it; they also scoff at the Commission because it did not always answer every question with a flat decision one way or the other. Actually, the make-up of the Commission and its staff was an excellent safeguard against over-commitment to any one theory, or against the illicit transformation of probabilities into certainties. e. Oswald would not have been any sensible person’s choice for a co-conspirator. He was a loner, mixed up, of questionable reliability and an unknown quantity to any professional intelligence service.

f. As to charges that the Commission’s report was a rush job, it emerged three months after the deadline originally set. But to the degree that the Commission tried to speed up its reporting, this was largely due to the pressure of irresponsible speculation already appearing, in some cases coming from the same critics who, refusing to admit their errors, are now putting out new criticisms.

g. Such vague accusations as that more than ten people have died mysteriously can always be explained in some natural way e.g.: the individuals concerned have for the most part died of natural causes; the Commission staff questioned 418 witnesses (the FBI interviewed far more people, conduction 25,000 interviews and re interviews), and in such a large group, a certain number of deaths are to be expected. (When Penn Jones, one of the originators of the ten mysterious deaths line, appeared on television, it emerged that two of the deaths on his list were from heart attacks, one from cancer, one was from a head-on collision on a bridge, and one occurred when a driver drifted into a bridge abutment.)

  1. Where possible, counter speculation by encouraging reference to the Commission’s Report itself. Open-minded foreign readers should still be impressed by the care, thoroughness, objectivity and speed with which the Commission worked. Reviewers of other books might be encouraged to add to their account the idea that, checking back with the report itself, they found it far superior to the work of its critics.

deHaven-Smith, Lance. Conspiracy Theory in America (Discovering America) (Kindle Locations 2784-2856). University of Texas Press. Kindle Edition.

NOTE: Epstein refers to author Edward Jay Epstein

Appendix II: Google Books “conspiracy theory” matches for 1964

Google Books includes magazines and newspapers such as Life magazine. The Google NGRAM viewer returns frequency of words and phrases such as “conspiracy theory” in this database. The search below is only for Newspapers and does not include the Life Magazine article quoted in the article above.

“Conspiracy theory,” “conspiracy theory of history” and “Hans Habe” are bolded in the output below.

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Warren Report Sure To Stir Controversy. – Page 2books.google.com › books
Eugene Register-Guard · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 2
West Germany — A book advancing the conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary …

Europe May Protests Polls Listed Warren Report Data. – Page 3books.google.com › books
Lawrence Journal-World · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3
West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Ils author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary millionaires …

Europe Sees Whitewash By Warren’s Commission – Page 1books.google.com › books
The Fort Scott Tribune · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1
West Germany A book — advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United Stales and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary millionaires …

Warren – Page 8books.google.com › books
Saskatoon Star-Phoenix · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 8
West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. German newspapers for the most part have not advanced any …

Controversy – Page 7books.google.com › books
The Nevada Daily Mail · ‎Sep 24, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 7
West Germany A book ad— vancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary million …

Kentucky New Era – Page 18books.google.com › books
Kentucky New Era · ‎Sep 24, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 18
West Germany A book — advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzerland. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary millio- …

The Daily Reporter – Page 1books.google.com › books
The Daily Reporter · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1
West Germany — A bo^k advancing conspiracy theory a best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Hhbe. «pent the war years in the United Stntes and now lives in Swi’zer- land. His book. ‘Death in Dallas” claims reactionary millionaires …

Sketches – Page 6books.google.com › books
Gettysburg Times · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 6
»**My organ of the tiny People s Socialist party, has published stories supporting the conspiracy theory. Sweden — The conspiracy theory has had widespread pub- Hcation. Doubts are expected to return to many with the issuing of the …

Would Goldwater Offer True Test For Voters? – Page 4books.google.com › books
Ocala Star-Banner · ‎Jun 21, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
At times the Senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes m his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …

Washington Calling. Marquis Childs. – Page 22books.google.com › books
Reading Eagle · ‎Jun 18, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 22
At times the senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes in his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …

The Morning Record – Page 4books.google.com › books
The Morning Record · ‎Jun 20, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
AT TIMES bhe Senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes in his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …

Washington Calling. Conservatives Ready To Blame Press? By …books.google.com › books
The Evening News · ‎Jun 20, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 13
At times the senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes in his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …

Warren Report May Stir Controversy In Europe. – Page 4books.google.com › books
The Free Lance-Star · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
West Gormany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is la best-seller. Its author, Hun- Igarian-born Hans Habe, shent. Tri Fr»ir tone‘- S* or,. he war .years in the United States and now lives in Swltzer- and.

The Tuscaloosa News. West Alabama Firmly Newspaper 146th. …books.google.com › books
The Tuscaloosa News · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1
Sweden The conspiracy — theory has had widespread publication. Doubts are expected to return lo many with the issuing of the Warren commission reDisclosure. Denmark The belief in a — conspiracy is rather widespread, …

‘Null In Killing. A. True Test For Barry? – Page 6books.google.com › books
Daytona Beach Morning Journal · ‎Jun 20, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 6
At times the Senator himself has seemed to lean on the conspiracy theory. One of the strangest episodes in his California primary campaign was the private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, …

Europe Is Skeptical Of Assassination Report. – Page 22books.google.com › books
Spokane Daily Chronicle · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 22
… evidence presented up to now makes the average Frenchman — or most newspaper editors — believe ‘* was a cut-and-dned. one-man killing West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is a best-seller Its author Hungarian-born Hans …

Kennedy Assassinatian Bpdort. Kennedy Assassination Report. …books.google.com › books
Quebec Chronicle-Telegraph · ‎Sep 28, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1
West (iernianv A hook ad vanring conspiracy theory is a best seller Its aiithoi Iltingar tan born Hans llabe. spent Ihe Slates. war jears in and now lives in Swit/erland. II Mil HI AMI S TK\SI|. In Di-.iin m Dallas llabe claims

Result – Page 5books.google.com › books
Meriden Journal · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5
No amount of evidence presented up to now makes the average Frenchman — or most newspaper editors — believe it was a cut-and-dried, one-man killing. West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is best-seller. Its author, HunBy.

In Case Of Defeat, Goldwater Backers Have News Media As … – Page 14books.google.com › books
Toledo Blade · ‎Jun 17, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 14
the conspiracy theory. One of the strangesi episodes in his California primary cam paign was ihe private press conference he held in the offices of the San Diego Union, a newspaper favor able to his cause.

Assassination – Page 2books.google.com › books
Warsaw Times – Union · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 2
SWEDEN — The conspiracy theory has had widespread publication. Doubts are expected to return to many with the issuing the Warren commission report. DENMARK — The belief in a conspiracy is rather several newspapers have shown skepticism …

Europeans Still Think Jfk Murder A Rightist Plot. – Page 4books.google.com › books
The Telegraph-Herald · ‎Sep 25, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
West Germany — A book advancing conspiracy theory is best-seller. Its author, Hungarian-born Hans Habe, spent the war years in the United States and now lives in Switzer land. His book, “Death in Dallas” claims reactionary million’ …

Ex-Commie Opposes Checkup Group Of Jfk Death. Rivals For …books.google.com › books
Lawrence Journal-World · ‎May 5, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3
Unless this is done the conspiracy theory cannot be laid to rest. The commission has discussed Buchanan; indeed, it has had some preliminary contact with him. But it has not yet decided whether to take the bold but obvious step of …

Psst, Citizen! Citizen! Here’s Real Inside Dope. – Page 4books.google.com › books
Eugene Register-Guard · ‎Feb 22, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
But personally, I can never get very worked up about The Conspiracy Theory of Life. It’s not that 1 have more faith thin some in my fellow man. It’s that I have less. Most people I know, including me. are far too wilUuI, nulr- pendent …

Who Killed Kennedy? – Page 6books.google.com › books
The Telegraph-Herald · ‎Sep 27, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 6
This conspiracy theory has beeh accepted so widely in Europe that a contrary report by the Warren Commission could inspire charger that a conspiracy Is being “whitewashed.” In England, Philosopher Bertrand Russell heads a “Who Killed …

The Portsmouth Times – Page 53books.google.com › books
The Portsmouth Times · ‎Sep 22, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 53
‘S Germany _ A book advamMng conspiracy theory is 21 ‘7 JIKWS a best-seller Its author Hun- were doiiut garian-born Hans Habe.‘ spent the war years in the United states and now lives in Switzer- land. His book, “Death in Dal- m.

Public Wants Fast Probe Report. – Page 4books.google.com › books
Sarasota Herald-Tribune · ‎Apr 14, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
Perhaps one reason so many Europeans are wedded to the conspiracy theory is that they can’t quite believe in the coincidence o two psychotics Oswald and — Ruby in one place at the – same time. Apart from the fact of there being no …

Conspiracy Theory Exploded. – Page 10books.google.com › books
The Deseret News · ‎Sep 28, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 10
Never, until our own revolutionary century, has the conspiracy theory of history been given such a workout. A “sect,” consisting of about 300.000 “adepts.” has been boring from within for some 20 years. “It first announced itself in …

The Altus Times-Democrat – Page 4books.google.com › books
The Altus Times-Democrat · ‎Apr 22, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
… even behind the Iron Curtain. was In Copenhagen recently. propagating his theories to | Students Association as guest of the liberal newspaper Eks trahladet The other American expous Ing the “conspiracy theory” is Thomas Buchanan, …

Many Europeans Blame Assassination Of Kennedy On Extremist …books.google.com › books
Sarasota Herald-Tribune · ‎Apr 28, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5
Former Communist The other American expous- ing the “conspiracy theory” is Thomas Buchanan, a self-admitted former Communist now living in Paris. He has found a surprisingly wide audience. Buchanan recently wrote a series for the …

Fhese Days… Why Blame The C. I. A For Lack Of Will Power? – Page 4books.google.com › books
The Washington Observer · ‎Jun 18, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
This column does not accepl Ihe conspiracy theory of his- lory. Bul il does Ihmk rather well of the contagion theory. This ran involve e conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander char- acters, and to impute • motives, …

Fr I D. To Hove Word With You Drew Pearson.. These Days. Why …books.google.com › books
The Tuscaloosa News · ‎Jun 22, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3
This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to impute motives.

These Days. Why Blame The Cia For Failures In Will? By John …books.google.com › books
Ocala Star-Banner · ‎Jun 18, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. Tnis can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and. to impute motives.

But Critics. Are Unfair… The Cia Gets All The Blame. – Page 8books.google.com › books
The Evening Independent · ‎Jun 18, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 8
This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to impute motives, …

By John Chamberlain – Page 8books.google.com › books
Park City Daily News · ‎Jun 21, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 8
This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of his- tory But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to im- pute motives.

Failure Of Will Why Blame The Cia? – Page 13books.google.com › books
The Deseret News · ‎Jun 18, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 13
This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve conspiracy at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to impute motives.

The Press-Courier – Page 28books.google.com › books
The Press-Courier · ‎Apr 17, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 28
‘Conspiracy Theory”. Buchanan, a. former (‘omniums: now- living in Pans He has found a surprisingly wide audience Buchanan recently wrote a scries for the left -wing French weekly 1/Kxpress It was reprinted and quoted throughout Western …

Warren Report Squelches Myths. – Page 3books.google.com › books
Middlesboro Daily News · ‎Oct 5, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3
Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswp.ld’s innocence, will continue to do so, despite an absolute lack of substantiation, and the sheer overwhelming bulk of the evidence meticulously assembled against …

Us Tory Union Disclaims Birchers. – Page 12books.google.com › books
The Calgary Herald · ‎Dec 26, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 12
As a “practical matter,” he said, it had been “tarred by the liberal press,” had “never thought out its positions, reacted blindly, and harbored a conspiracy theory contrary to any reasonable analysis of domestic and world realities.

Squelching The Myths. – Page 31books.google.com › books
The Southeast Missourian · ‎Oct 12, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 31
Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswald’s innocence, will continue to do so. despite an sbsolufe Isck of substantiation and the sis^r ovsrvr’aelrninf faolk of the evidence EDf-icuicasIy assembled against …

Warren Report Squelches Myths Eastern Arsenal Moves In – Page 31books.google.com › books
Park City Daily News · ‎Sep 30, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 31
Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or oven in Oswald’s innocence, will continue to do so, despite nn absolute lack of substantiation and the sheer overwhelming bulk of the evidence meticulously assembled acainst Oswald.

For All. To See… The Legends Begin To Grow. – Page 3books.google.com › books
The Victoria Advocate · ‎Jul 26, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3
Itobert Kennedy is an objective witness, un that if there was anything to the Big Conspiracy theory, he would be pitching for more investigation. Further, he has access to much of the testimony given to the Warren Commission. Ti* dead I.

Shattering Myths. – Page 4books.google.com › books
The Owosso Argus-Press · ‎Oct 1, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswald’s innocence, will continue to do so, despite an absolute lack of substantiation and the sheer overwhelming bulk of the evidence meticulously assembled against Oswald.

Warren Report Squelches Myths. – Page 5books.google.com › books
The Sumter Daily Item · ‎Oct 5, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5
Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswalds innocence, will continue to do so,- despite an absolute lack of substantiation and the sheer overwhelming bulk of the evidence meticulously assembled against Oswald.

Probers Shrug Off Assassin Theories. – Page 2books.google.com › books
The Press-Courier · ‎Jun 1, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 2
Ihe spokesman said, many advocates of a conspiracy theory simply state without any supporting evidence thai Ihe shots fired at the President’s car could not have come from the School Book Depository an Dallas.

A Time To Ignore Politics. – Page 3books.google.com › books
The Victoria Advocate · ‎Apr 17, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3
Much of the French and British press still favor the “conspiracy” theory and they wil] have a hard time accepting the Warren Commission version thai there was no plot. Perhaps one reason so many Europeans are wedded to the comspiracy …

In .Assassination Events Impressed With .Repor1 . – Page 5books.google.com › books
The Lewiston Daily Sun · ‎Sep 28, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5
“I think this report should set at rest forever the conspiracy theory and should do a lot to restore our image abroad,” Belli said. Both Belli and Dallas attorney Joe Joe Tonahill, who joined Belli in. Festivities will open at 6:30.ncws …

Those Involved Impressed By Warren Group Report. – Page 1books.google.com › books
Lewiston Morning Tribune · ‎Sep 28, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1
… throughout the free world ” Belli Praises Melvin Belli, principal lawyer fulfilling the capabilities of the Americans who were appointed to do it. “I think this report should set at rest forever the conspiracy theory and should do a …

Village Gifts For Christmas. – Page 3books.google.com › books
The Village Voice · ‎Dec 10, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 3
… but whenever h* veered from occasional self-criticism to tb* basic malaise of the press, he cut deeper by far than any of the others, Kempton dismissed the conspiracy theory with regard to non-coverage of basic news. (“If* not that.

Cia Position Is Defended. By John Chamberlain – Page 4books.google.com › books
St. Joseph Gazette · ‎Jun 22, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
This column does not accept the conspiracy theory of history. But it does think rather well of the contagion theory. This can involve eon-. spirary at the outset to float rumors, to slander characters, and to impute motives.

The Sun – Page 7books.google.com › books
The Sun · ‎Sep 26, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 7
In Europe especially, whore e , ing al lne the conspiracy theory of politics is almost a wav of life. e. Rullptholp. there developed a kind of bull- headed determination to facts match theory. Indeed to this clay, Europeans appear to …

Theories In Brief. – Page 9books.google.com › books
Gadsden Times · ‎Apr 19, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 9
The other American expous- Buchanan, interviewed in are the Kennedy assassination Ing the “conspiracy theory” Paris by UPI correspondent theories of Thomas Buchanan is Thomas Buchanan, a self-ad- Aline Mosby, said his conclu- which have …

Planning Failure. – Page 9books.google.com › books
The Glasgow Herald · ‎Dec 9, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 9
Shipyard workers on the Clyde, seemed to hold something like a “conspiracy theory” of industrial relations to explain the attitudes and” behaviour of .their employers. Three shipyard workers. in different employments and in different …

The Village Voice – Page 4books.google.com › books
The Village Voice · ‎Nov 26, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 4
UW«B conspiracy . theory:. , „ He was the TfWil tool of f\f powerful Tu-nt”«ff ill forces f I’kViiAo hostile Vni.-t.l to fj-k us. So many theories’ all of them notable for “distancing” the assassin -from the subjective proximity of …

Roscoe Drummond, Report Of Warren Group Should Not Be Held Back.books.google.com › books
The Free Lance-Star · ‎Apr 15, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 5
… the War- ren Commission version that there was no plot. Perhaps one reason so many Europeans are wedded to the conspiracy theory ! ! j’s’that” j’s’that” they can’t “quite “quite believe in the coincidence of two psy- DRUMMOND, Page 13)

Belli Renews Rap At Dallas Justice. – Page 17books.google.com › books
The Spokesman-Review · ‎Sep 28, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 17
“I think this report should session’s ‘at rest forever the conspiracy ‘theory and should do a lot to restore our image abroad. The only thing that remains is for a. NEW YORK (AP) — Former a hard hat for street wear. ‘Afty. Gen.

The Altus Times-Democrat – Page 24books.google.com › books
The Altus Times-Democrat · ‎Oct 4, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 24
Those who wish to believe in the conspiracy theory, or even in Oswald’s innocence, will continue to do so, despite an absolute lack of substantiation and the sheer overwhelming bulk. bled against Oswald.

Inside Cover Of Report With A Portrait Of The Late President … – Page 1books.google.com › books
Daytona Beach Morning Journal · ‎Sep 28, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 1
… described the findings as “.a real great report, fulfilling the capabilities of the great Americans who were appointed to do it “I think this report should set at rest forever the conspiracy theory and should do a lot to restore our …

Where Are The Doubt’. Warren Are Can Neglect To Examine. – Page 19books.google.com › books
The Michigan Daily · ‎Sep 24, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 19
A conspiracy theory would have been. “proving negatives to a certainty.” mi-ssipn may be trnr. They nuiy not. ^LL THE FACTS uncovered by the commission may be true. They may not. The public, however, should not hasten to swallow without …

Pressure On Sartre Over Nobel Prize. – Page 2books.google.com › books
The Sydney Morning Herald · ‎Nov 4, 1964 · ‎Newspaper
FOUND INSIDE – PAGE 2
E French are without doubt the people most addicted to the conspiracy theory of government. It is a sign of naivety in France to doubt that the country’s rulers are incapable of the most daring ingenuity, and the most brazen lying, …
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[Article] The Frequency of US Presidential Assassination Conspiracies

Engraving of assassination of President Abraham Lincoln
Engraving of assassination of President Abraham Lincoln
US President Abraham Lincoln was Murdered by a Criminal Conspiracy

It is common to encounter implicit or explicit claims, especially by intellectuals, that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational, impossible or extremely rare. The phrase “conspiracy theory” as well as related phrases “conspiracy theorist,” “conspiracy”, and “conspiracist” are used more and more to dismiss any suggestion of a criminal conspiracy or even error in certain events.

These are generally significant events, often assassinations, murders, or suspected murders such as the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Malcolm X, the alleged suicide of late “financier” Jeffrey Epstein and others, where the alleged or suspected conspirators are usually authority figures in the group or groups the “conspiracy theory” labeler identifies strongly with.

EventDate(s)KilledOfficial Cause
Assassination of Senator Huey LongSep. 10, 1935Huey Long, Carl WeissCarl Weiss acting alone, Weiss killed by Long’s bodyguards
JFK AssassinationNov 22, 1963John F. Kennedy, J.D. TippitLee Harvey Oswald acting alone
Malcolm X AssassinationFebruary 21, 1965Malcolm X (born Malcolm Little)Originally convicted: Muhammad A. Aziz (exonerated)
Khalil Islam (exonerated)
Thomas Hagan

Conspiracy by enemies in the Nation of Islam.
MLK AssassinationApril 4, 1968Martin Luther KingJames Early Ray acting alone
RFK AssassinationJune 5, 1968Robert Francis KennedySirhan Sirhan acting alone
Oklahoma City BombingApril 19, 1995at least 168 peopleTimothy McVeigh, Terry Nichols
(Michael Fortier convicted of related offenses, but not the conspiracy, plea deal)
TWA Flight 800July 17, 1996230, all on boardaccidentally blew up
September 11 AttacksSeptember 11, 20012,996attributed to 19 hijackers acting on orders from Osama bin Laden
Anthrax attacksSeptember 18 – October 12, 20015 killedEventually blamed on researcher Bruce Ivins
Jeffrey Epstein “suicide”August 10, 20191 deadRuled a suicide
COVID-19 PandemicFall 2019 – PresentSeveral million worldwideUnknown
Most Prominent “Conspiracy Theories” Involve Homicide or Possible Homicide Cases

This common and increasing usage of “conspiracy theory” makes it difficult even to discuss suspicions of criminal conspiracies or even incompetence by powerful persons or groups, not unlike George Orwell’s fictional newspeak in the novel 1984. Newspeak is a controlled language of simplified grammar and restricted vocabulary designed to limit the individual’s ability to think and articulate “subversive” concepts such as personal identity, self-expression, and free will.

Frequency of “Conspiracy Theory” and Related Phrases in Google Books (Dec 3, 2022)

What Does the Data Show Us?

There are laws against conspiracy and groups of people are convicted of conspiracy all the time.

US FBI Attributes 14.7% of Homicides in 2019 to “Multiple Offenders,” a conspiracy in common usage. Twenty-seven point eight (27.8) percent attributed to an unknown offender or offenders, a possible conspiracy.

The FBI attributed 27.8% of homicides in 2019 to an unknown offender or offenders, a possible conspiracy. Unsolved murders are frequently attributed to gang/organized crime violence, for example: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gangs-drugs-blamed-for-unsolved-murders/

CBS Report in 2008 Attributing Many Unsolved Murders to Gangs and Drugs

FBI figures reviewed by The Associated Press show that the homicide clearance rate, as detectives call it, dropped from 91 percent in 1963 – the first year records were kept in the manner they are now – to 61 percent in 2007.

Law enforcement officials say the chief reason is a rise in drug- and gang-related killings, which are often impersonal and anonymous, and thus harder to solve than slayings among family members or friends. As a result, police departments are carrying an ever-growing number of “cold-case” murders on their books.

Gangs, Drugs Blamed For Unsolved Murders, December 9, 2008 (CBS/AP)

Official statistics can be incorrect due to political pressure, bias, or simple error. Official agencies often never admit such errors even if they quietly revise or discontinue reporting the faulty statistic. Thus it is prudent to find independent checks on such official claims.

A review of Wikipedia’s list of US serial killers showed that 56 of 553 identified serial killers active from 1950 to 2020 had accomplices, a conspiracy in common usage. This is 10.13% of the names listed. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices.  This provides a check on the FBI official numbers where the names of the killers and victims or at least forensic evidence of victims who could not be identified in some cases are available for independent review.

Another check on the FBI numbers especially relevant to the use of the phrase “conspiracy theory” to dismiss suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are assassinations or attempted assassinations of US Presidents.

Here Wikipedia’s List of United States presidential assassination attempts and plots which lists only officially alleged conspiracies is reviewed (on December 3, 2022). There are unproven conspiracy theories involving all four assassinations and many, possibly all, attempts to assassinate US presidents.

Wikipedia’s List of United States presidential assassination attempts and plots (December 3, 2022)

Four US Presidents — Abraham Lincoln, James A Garfield, William McKinley, and John F. Kennedy — have been assassinated. Of these, the assassination of President Lincoln was unquestionably a conspiracy, with concurrent attempts to kill several other cabinet members and officials. This is one in four or 25% — with a quite large error of course.

The Wikipedia list discusses thirty-seven (37) alleged attempts to kill a US President, including when out of office. Of these 9-10 were arguably alleged conspiracies, mostly involving foreign political groups often labeled “terrorists.” This gives 24.3 to 27% of US Presidential assassination attempts were conspiracies. This matches the one (1) in four (4) actual presidential assassinations.

The statistics are quite low however. With 95% confidence anywhere from 0 to 75% of actual Presidential assassinations are actual detectable conspiracies, ignoring a significant failure rate for detecting a conspiracy — in practice conspiracies are clearly difficult to prove. With larger numbers of failed assassination attempts, with 95% confidence anywhere from 3/37 to 16/37, 8% to 43% of failed assassination attempts are actual conspiracies. These ranges are consistent with the 14.7% of homicides in 2019 involve multiple offenders reported by the US FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation).

Herbert Hoover[edit]
On November 19, 1928,[58] President-elect Hoover embarked on a ten-nation "goodwill tour" of Central and South America.[59] While crossing the Andes Mountains from Chile, an assassination plot by Argentine anarchists was thwarted. The group was led by Severino Di Giovanni, who planned to blow up his train as it crossed the Argentinian central plain. The plotters had an itinerary but the bomber was arrested before he could place the explosives on the rails. Hoover professed unconcern, tearing off the front page of a newspaper that revealed the plot and explaining, "It's just as well that Lou shouldn't see it,"[60] referring to his wife. His complimentary remarks on Argentina were well received in both the host country and in the press.[61]
Franklin D. Roosevelt
The Soviet NKVD claimed to have discovered a Nazi German Waffen-SS plan to assassinate RooseveltWinston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin at the Tehran Conference in 1943.[64]
Harry S. Truman[edit]

Main article: Attempted assassination of Harry S. Truman
Mid-1947: During the Jewish insurgency in Palestine before the formation of the State of Israel, the Zionist Stern Gang was believed to have sent a number of letter bombs addressed to the president and high-ranking staff at the White House. The Secret Service had been alerted by British intelligence after similar letters had been sent to high-ranking British officials and the Gang claimed credit. The mail room of the White House intercepted the letters and the Secret Service defused them. At the time, the incident was not publicized. Truman's daughter Margaret Truman confirmed the incident in her biography of Truman published in 1972. It had earlier been told in a memoir by Ira R. T. Smith, who worked in the mail room.[65]

November 1, 1950: Two Puerto Rican pro-independence activistsOscar Collazo and Griselio Torresola, attempted to kill President Truman at the Blair House, where Truman was living while the White House was undergoing major renovations. In the attack, Torresola injured White House Policeman Joseph Downs and mortally wounded White House Policeman Leslie Coffelt. Coffelt returned fire, killing Torresola with a shot to the head. Collazo wounded an officer before being shot in the stomach. Collazo survived with serious injuries. Truman was not harmed, but he was placed at a huge risk. Collazo was convicted in a federal trial and received the death sentence. Truman commuted Collazo's death sentence to life in prison. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter further commuted Collazo's sentence to time served.[66]
Richard Nixon

Late May 1972: During Nixon's official visit to TehranIran, a "Marxist terrorist group" named People's Mujahedin of Iran blew up a bomb at Reza Shah's mausoleum, where Nixon was scheduled to attend a ceremony just 45 minutes after the explosion.[73] This may have been the earliest known attempt on the president's life by an Islamic extremist.
Jimmy Carter[edit]

Raymond Lee Harvey was an Ohio-born unemployed American drifter. He was arrested by the Secret Service after being found carrying a starter pistol with blank rounds, ten minutes before Carter was to give a speech at the Civic Center Mall in Los Angeles on May 5, 1979. Harvey had a history of mental illness,[78] but police had to investigate his claim that he was part of a four-man operation to assassinate the president.[79] According to Harvey, he fired seven blank rounds from the starter pistol on the hotel roof on the night of May 4 to test how much noise it would make. He claimed to have been with one of the plotters that night, whom he knew as "Julio". (This man was later identified as a 21-year-old illegal immigrant from Mexico, who gave the name Osvaldo Espinoza Ortiz.)[78] At the time of his arrest, Harvey had eight spent rounds in his pocket, as well as 70 unspent blank rounds for the gun.[80] Harvey was jailed on a $50,000 bond, given his transient status, and Ortiz was alternately reported as being held on a $100,000 bond as a material witness[78] or held on a $50,000 bond being charged with burglary from a car.[80] Charges against the pair were ultimately dismissed for a lack of evidence.[81]

NOTE: The Raymond Lee Harvey/Osvaldo Espinoza Ortiz case is obviously ambiguous since although arrests were apparently made, the charges were reportedly dismissed. Hence 9 or 10 conspiracy cases.

George H. W. Bush[edit]

See also: 1993 cruise missile strikes on Iraq
April 13, 1993: According to Kuwaiti authorities, and an FBI investigation [84] fourteen Kuwaiti and Iraqi men believed to be working for Saddam Hussein smuggled bombs into Kuwait, planning to assassinate former President Bush by a car bomb during his visit to Kuwait University three months after he had left office in January 1993.[85] The former president was on a visit to Kuwait in 1993 to commemorate the coalition's victory over Iraq in the Persian Gulf War when Kuwaiti officials claimed to have foiled an alleged assassination plot and arrested the suspects. At the time the former president was accompanied by his wife, two of his sons, former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, former Chief of Staff John Sununu, and former Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady. Of the 17 people Kuwaiti authorities arrested, two suspects, Wali Abdelhadi Ghazali and Raad Abdel-Amir al-Assadi, retracted their confessions at the trial, claiming that they were coerced.[86] A Kuwaiti court convicted all but one of the defendants. Then-president Bill Clinton responded by launching a cruise missile attack on an Iraqi intelligence building in the Mansour district of Baghdad. The plot was used as one of the justifications for the Iraq Resolution authorizing the 2003 U.S. invasion of the country. An analysis by the CIA's Counter-Terrorism Center concludes the assassination plot was likely fabricated by Kuwaiti authorities,[87] however at the time the FBI established that the plot had been directed by the Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS), and The CIA had received information suggesting that Saddam Hussein had authorized the assassination attempt to get revenge against the U.S, to punish Kuwait for working with the U.S, and to keep other Arab states for intervening in Iraq any further.[88] The day before the attack, on April 12th, 1993, the then U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. and future 64th U.S. secretary of state, Madeleine K. Albright, went before the U.N. Security Council to present evidence of the Iraqi plot with the hope of gaining international support.
Bill Clinton 

November 1994: Osama bin Laden recruited Ramzi Yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, to attempt to assassinate Clinton. However, Yousef decided that security would be too effective and decided to target Pope John Paul II instead.[92]

1996: During his visit to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Manila, Clinton's motorcade was rerouted before it was to drive over a bridge. Service officers had intercepted a message suggesting that an attack was imminent, and Lewis Merletti, the director of the Secret Service, ordered the motorcade to be re-routed. An intelligence team later discovered a bomb under the bridge. Subsequent U.S. investigation "revealed that [the plot] was masterminded by a Saudi terrorist living in Afghanistan named Osama bin Laden".[93]
Barack Obama

20112012: The far-right terrorist group FEAR plotted to carry out a series of terror attacks which included assassinating Obama.[107] The plot was foiled when four members of the group were arrested on murder charges and one, Michael Burnett, agreed to co-operate with authorities in return for a lighter sentence.[108]

Conclusion

Contrary to the popular belief among many intellectuals, clearly detected conspiracies are not exceptionally rare or non-existent, in Presidential assassinations and assassination attempts. Given that many actual conspiracies go unproven in more mundane murders, it is not unreasonable to suspect actual but unproven conspiracies in Presidential assassinations or other high profile murders or possible murders.

(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me (References follow this About Me section)

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

References

The Big Book of Serial Killers, Vol 1, by Jack Rosewood
https://www.amazon.com/Big-Book-Serial-Killers-Encyclopedia-ebook/dp/B071K51FQ4/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

FBI Expanded Homicide Data Table 4: Murder by Victim/Offender Situations, 2019
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-4.xls

Using Murder: The Social Construction of Serial Homicide, by Philip Jenkins, Aldine De Gruyter, New York, 1994

“Serial Killer” Conspiracy Cases

Note that the details of these crimes are quite unpleasant and are discussed in these references. The analysis in this article is only concerned with the proportion of cases that were conspiracies as defined in common usage — multiple offenders working together.

Paul Bernardo and Karla Homolka
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/paul-bernardo-and-karla-homolka-case

Kenneth Bianchi and Angelo Buono
https://allthatsinteresting.com/hillside-strangler-kenneth-bianchi-angelo-buono

Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy Lewis Norris
https://unhbcoe.org/en/Lawrence_Bittaker_and_Roy_Norris-0426802400

William Bonin (and 22-year-old Vernon Butts, as well as teenagers Gregory Miley, William Pugh, and James Munro)
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/01/07/Freeway-Killer-William-Bonin-convicted-of-luring-10-youths/3460977293230/

Douglas Clark and Carol Bundy
https://www.oxygen.com/mysteries-scandals/crime-time/carol-bundy-victim-mastermind-sunset-strip-killers

Dean Corll (with Elmer Wayne Henley and David Owen Brooks)
https://murderpedia.org/male.C/c/corll-dean.htm

Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez
https://justcriminals.info/2016/12/19/delfina-maria-de-jesus-gonzalez/

Patrick Kearney (and David Hill?)
https://criminalminds.fandom.com/wiki/Patrick_Kearney

Randy Steven Kraft and unknown accomplice or accomplices
https://murderpedia.org/male.K/k/kraft-randy.htm

Leonard Lake and Charles Ng
https://www.historicmysteries.com/charles-ng-and-leonard-lake/

John Allan Mohammad and Lee Boyd Malvo
https://stmuscholars.org/john-allen-muhammad-lee-boyd-malvo-the-dc-snipers/

David Ray Parker (and Cindy Hendy and others)
https://allthatsinteresting.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-killer
https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/albuquerque/items-david-parker-ray
https://www.thescarechamber.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-of-torture/

Fred West and Rosemary West
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/04/europe/fred-rosemary-west-murders-gbr-cmd-intl/index.html

Aileen Carol Wuornos (and Tyria Moore, never charged)
https://sites.psu.edu/harringpassion/2019/03/29/aileen-wuornos/

John Wayne Gacy and possible unknown accomplice or accomplices

https://theweek.com/articles/478154/did-serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-have-accompliceshttps://newsfeed.time.com/2012/02/13/serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-may-have-had-accomplices/https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/02/10/attorneys-believe-gacy-had-accomplices/https://www.oxygen.com/true-crime-buzz/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-went-on-a-personal-missionhttps://www.archiweekend.com/viral-news/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-continued-an-individual-pursuit-to-stop-him-from-hurting-others/

Questions about Jeffrey Epstein “Suicide”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/autopsy-finds-broken-bones-in-jeffrey-epsteins-neck-deepening-questions-around-his-death/2019/08/14/d09ac934-bdd9-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.htmlhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/autopsy-points-to-possibility-epstein-was-strangled-reporthttps://channel933.iheart.com/content/new-evidence-suggests-jeffrey-epstein-was-strangled-dr-michael-baden/

Programmed to Kill: The Politics of Serial Murder, Dave McGowan, August 2004
https://www.amazon.com/Programmed-Kill-Politics-Serial-Murder/dp/0595326404/

The Ultimate Evil: The Search for the Sons of Sam, by Maury Terry, Introduction by Joshua Zeman
https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Evil-Search-Sons-Sam-ebook/dp/B08NFVHPP5/

[Article] The Frequency of Serial Killer Conspiracies from Wikipedia Data

Serial Killer Conspiracies

Another brief followup to my article on the rationality of conspiracy theories. It is a common belief among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational.

The dictionary — as opposed to popular pejorative propaganda meaning — of “conspiracy theory” is simply a theory or hypothesis that some illegal or harmful event was caused by two or more malefactors working together. When surviving family, friends and neighbors, police investigators, news reporters or others suspect two or more perpetrators in a murder, they must consider a conspiracy theory.

The popular propaganda redefinition of “conspiracy theory,” the most straightforward dictionary phrase for a conspiracy theory, as “an irrational theory contradicted by evidence and reason” makes it difficult even to discuss and consider actual conspiracies in the modern world — not unlike the fictional newspeak in George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984.

United States FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) Homicide Statistics for 2019

A high fraction of events where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used to stigmatize suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are murders such as the assassination of President Kennedy or possible murders such as the suspicious “suicide” of financier Jeffrey Epstein where the suspected criminal conspiracy involves powerful persons such as high government officials, politicians, business leaders, or others. According to official FBI statistics about 14.7 percent of murders in 2019 were committed by multiple offenders, a conspiracy in common usage.

Almost twenty-seven percent (27%) of murders in 2019 were unsolved. Unsolved murders tend to be gang violence/organized crime murders, that is conspiracies that could not be proven. The larger, the more powerful, and the more secret a gang or organized crime group is perceived to be, the less willing witnesses are to come forward with testimony and evidence.

Official government numbers may be inaccurate due to political pressure, bias, or error. For example, serious questions have been raised about the FBI’s estimates of the number of serial killers and serial homicides in the early 1980s.

As a partial check on the FBI’s official numbers on murders with multiple offenders, I previously analyzed the frequency of conspiracies in high profile “serial killer” murder cases listed in Jack Rosewood’s Big Book of Serial Killers which lists one-hundred and fifty cases from around the world, mostly the United States. This analysis indicated about 5-10% of cases were serial killer conspiracies. Here I present a more extensive analysis of Wikipedia’s list of serial killers in the United States page, which has 553 serial killers reportedly active in the United States from 1950 to 2020 (I omitted the pre-1950 cases listed on the Wikipedia page).

Wikipedia List of serial killers in the United States screenshot (November 27, 2022)

Methods

The data was extracted from the Wikipedia page identified serial killers table to a CSV (comma separated values) file on August 18, 2022 for another analysis to understand the properties and possible causes of serial murders, notably the seeming 1970s-1980s serial killer wave. The analysis is done using the Python programming language, NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib.

The table includes a Notes column which enables identification of cases where there was one or more accomplice. The language “accomplice,” “accomplices,” “with partner”, “with husband,” “with wife,” and similar phrases is generally used to identify accomplices. Some accomplices are listed separately in the Name column of the table; some are not. Serial killers reportedly active in the United States from 1950 to 2020 were analyzed.

The accomplices refer to persons convicted in a court of law. They do not include unsubstantiated claims by the serial killer, suspects never convicted including named or unnamed suspects suggested in books such as Maury Terry’s The Ultimate Evil or Dave McGowan (no relation)’s Programmed to Kill. As discussed in my previous article, there is evidence of additional accomplices, never convicted, in a number of cases listed by Wikipedia with no accomplices in the Notes section. These include John Wayne Gacy, Patrick Kearney, Randy Kraft, and several others. These “maybe” serial killer conspiracies are not included in the results below which count only convicted accomplices.

The Wikipedia list of serial killers in the United States is extensive, appears correct, but there may be some errors.

The plot below gives a rough overview of the serial killer conspiracy cases — fifty-six (56) named serial killers out of 553 reportedly active from 1950 to 2020. This is 10.13% of the names listed in the table. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices. Both the number of proven victims and the number of serial killers active peaks during the 1970s and 1980s, declining substantially in the 1990s up to 2020.

The green bars show the dates the serial killer and accomplices were active. The red circle shows the middle of this date range. The horizontal axis is the date in year. The vertical axis is the number of proven victims from the table. The red circles are labeled with the names of all identified serial killers from the table with the same middle of the date range. This shows some of the accomplices/conspirators. The data in the table, especially the notes column, is inconsistently presented, resulting in some serial killers not being grouped together. For example, Elmer Wayne Henley and Dean Corll, both shown in the plot, were accomplices. The table appears to credit Henley with only six (6) of the proven twenty-eight (28) murders organized by Corll, the ringleader.

Conclusion

Thus, proven in a court of law conspiracies are a small but significant fraction, about 10 percent (8-13% ninety-five percent confidence interval), of prominent serial killer cases — smaller than the 14.7 percent of murders with multiple offenders according to the FBI (in 2019). This is not surprising given the generally solitary nature of the crimes. Nonetheless, conspiracies are not exceptionally rare or unusual even in this type of murder.

Appendix: Deep Dive into Analysis

ACCOMPLICE CASES (56)
CASE NOTES MATCH AT LEAST ONE OF: accomplice, with wife, with husband, cult , accompliace, with his wife, with her husband, killers, partnership, with the aid of local teenagers
Bianchi, Kenneth Along with accomplice Angelo Buono Jr., known as "The Hillside Stranglers". Murdered young women in Los Angeles and Washington
Bittaker, Lawrence With accomplice Roy Norris known as "The Tool Box Killers"
Bonin, William Known as "The Freeway Killer"; preyed on young men and boys in southern California with several accomplices
Briley Brothers Three brothers and an accomplice responsible for 11 murders
Brown, Debra Denise Accomplice of Alton Coleman
Brummett, Lyle Raped and strangled three women in Texas with an accomplice
Bundy, Carol M. With accomplice Doug Clark, known as "The Sunset Strip Killers"; preyed on young women in West Hollywood and Los Angeles, California
Buono Jr., Angelo Along with accomplice Kenneth Bianchi, known as "The Hillside Stranglers". Murdered young women in Los Angeles
Carson, Michael Bear Along with his wife, Suzan Carson, dubbed "The San Francisco Witch Killers"; considered suspects in nearly a dozen other deaths in the U.S. and Europe[103]
Carson, Suzan Along with her husband, Michael Bear Carson, dubbed "The San Francisco Witch Killers"; considered suspects in nearly a dozen other deaths in the U.S. and Europe[103]
Chavez, Juan Rodriguez Known as "The Thrill Killer"; killed a neighbor during a burglary; paroled and went on a killing spree with a teenage accomplice
Clark, Doug With accomplice Carol M. Bundy, known as "The Sunset Strip Killers"; preyed on young women in West Hollywood and Los Angeles, California
Coffman, Cynthia Kidnapped four women by ATMs before accomplice strangled them
Coleman, Alton Multi-state killer who, along with his accomplice, murdered a man and injured another, murdered four women and three young girls, and raped a young girl
Cooks, Jessie Lee Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Copeland, Faye Along with her husband, Ray Copeland, the oldest couple ever sentenced to death in the United States
Copeland, Ray Along with his wife, Faye Copeland, the oldest couple ever sentenced to death in the United States
Corll, Dean Known as "The Candy Man" and "The Pied Piper". Crimes referred to as "The Houston Mass Murders"; raped and murdered boys and young men in Texas with the aid of teenaged accomplices David Owen Brooks and Elmer Wayne Henley
Davis, Girvies Accomplice of Richard Holman; killed robbery witnesses, saying it was "easier" than wearing a mask
Dieteman, Samuel Accomplice Dale Hausner Committed suicide in prison
Gallego, Gerald Accomplice Charlene Gallego released in 1997
Gecht, Robin Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Gordon, Steven Dean Sex offender who raped and strangled prostitutes in Santa Ana and Anaheim, California, aided by accomplice Franc Cano
Graham, Gwendolyn Accomplice of Cathy Wood; nurse's aide that preyed on elderly women in a Walker, Michigan nursing home
Green, Larry Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Gretzler, Douglas With accomplice Willie Steelman, killed witnesses to their robberies spree across California and Arizona
Henley, Elmer Wayne Crimes referred to as "The Houston Mass Murders"; accomplice of Dean Corll, who he later killed in self-defense
Herzog, Loren Along with accompliace Wesley Shermantine known as "The Speed Freak Killers"
Holman, Richard Accomplice of Girvies Davis; killed robbery witnesses
Kadamovas, Jurijus Accomplice of Iouri Mikhel; Lithuanian immigrant who kidnapped five people for ransom money in California and killed them
Knorr, Theresa Her sons, William and Robert Jr., were accomplices
Knotek, Michelle Tortured and abused boarders in her home with her husband
Kokoraleis, Andrew Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Kokoraleis, Thomas Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Koster, Brent Teenage accomplice of Danny Ranes, who actively participated in three of his four murders
Lake, Leonard Along with accomplice Charles Ng, they are also known as "The Operation Miranda Killers"
Lewingdon, Gary Together with brother Thaddeus Lewingdon, known as "The .22 Caliber Killers"
Lewingdon, Thaddeus Together with brother Gary Lewingdon, known as "The .22 Caliber Killers"
Malvo, Lee Boyd With accomplice John Allen Muhammad, perpetrated the D.C. sniper attacks
McCoy, Stephen Along with his accomplice, James Paster, the pair murdered three people in the Houston Area
Mikhel, Iouri Accomplice of Jurijus Kadamovas; Russian immigrant who kidnapped five people in California for ransom money and killed them
Moore, Manuel Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Muhammad, John Allen With accomplice Lee Boyd Malvo, perpetrated the D.C. sniper attacks
Neelley, Alvin Committed murders with wife Judith Neelley
Neelley, Judith Committed murders with husband Alvin Neelley
Ng, Charles Along with accomplice Leonard Lake, they are also known as "The Operation Miranda Killers"
Norris, Roy With accomplice Lawrence Bittaker known as "Tool Box Killers"
Pardo, Manuel South Florida former police officer who acted in partnership with Rolando Garcia; the two claimed to be ridding the world of drug dealers
Paster, James Along with his accomplice, Stephen McCoy, the pair murdered three people in the Houston Area. Paster confessed to two other murders for which he was never tried.
Ranes, Danny Kidnapped, raped and murdered women around Kalamazoo, Michigan with teenage accomplice Brent Koster
Schmid, Charles Known as "The Pied Piper of Tucson"; murdered three teenage girls in Arizona with the aid of local teenagers
Shermantine, Wesley Along with accompliace Loren Herzog, known as "The Speed Freak Killers"
Simon, J.C.X. Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Spreitzer, Edward Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Toole, Ottis Accomplice of Henry Lee Lucas; claimed to have murdered Adam Walsh
Wood, Cathy Accomplice of Gwendolyn Graham; nurse's aide that preyed on elderly women in a Walker, Michigan nursing home. Released on January 16, 2020
ACCOMPLICE CASES (56)

References

The Big Book of Serial Killers, Vol 1, by Jack Rosewood
https://www.amazon.com/Big-Book-Serial-Killers-Encyclopedia-ebook/dp/B071K51FQ4/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

FBI Expanded Homicide Data Table 4: Murder by Victim/Offender Situations, 2019
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-4.xls

Using Murder: The Social Construction of Serial Homicide, by Philip Jenkins, Aldine De Gruyter, New York, 1994

“Serial Killer” Conspiracy Cases

Note that the details of these crimes are quite unpleasant and are discussed in these references. The analysis in this article is only concerned with the proportion of cases that were conspiracies as defined in common usage — multiple offenders working together.

Paul Bernardo and Karla Homolka
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/paul-bernardo-and-karla-homolka-case

Kenneth Bianchi and Angelo Buono
https://allthatsinteresting.com/hillside-strangler-kenneth-bianchi-angelo-buono

Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy Lewis Norris
https://unhbcoe.org/en/Lawrence_Bittaker_and_Roy_Norris-0426802400

William Bonin (and 22-year-old Vernon Butts, as well as teenagers Gregory Miley, William Pugh, and James Munro)
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/01/07/Freeway-Killer-William-Bonin-convicted-of-luring-10-youths/3460977293230/

Douglas Clark and Carol Bundy
https://www.oxygen.com/mysteries-scandals/crime-time/carol-bundy-victim-mastermind-sunset-strip-killers

Dean Corll (with Elmer Wayne Henley and David Owen Brooks)
https://murderpedia.org/male.C/c/corll-dean.htm

Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez
https://justcriminals.info/2016/12/19/delfina-maria-de-jesus-gonzalez/

Patrick Kearney (and David Hill?)
https://criminalminds.fandom.com/wiki/Patrick_Kearney

Randy Steven Kraft and unknown accomplice or accomplices
https://murderpedia.org/male.K/k/kraft-randy.htm

Leonard Lake and Charles Ng
https://www.historicmysteries.com/charles-ng-and-leonard-lake/

John Allan Mohammad and Lee Boyd Malvo
https://stmuscholars.org/john-allen-muhammad-lee-boyd-malvo-the-dc-snipers/

David Ray Parker (and Cindy Hendy and others)
https://allthatsinteresting.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-killer
https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/albuquerque/items-david-parker-ray
https://www.thescarechamber.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-of-torture/

Fred West and Rosemary West
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/04/europe/fred-rosemary-west-murders-gbr-cmd-intl/index.html

Aileen Carol Wuornos (and Tyria Moore, never charged)
https://sites.psu.edu/harringpassion/2019/03/29/aileen-wuornos/

John Wayne Gacy and possible unknown accomplice or accomplices

https://theweek.com/articles/478154/did-serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-have-accomplices
https://newsfeed.time.com/2012/02/13/serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-may-have-had-accomplices/
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/02/10/attorneys-believe-gacy-had-accomplices/
https://www.oxygen.com/true-crime-buzz/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-went-on-a-personal-mission
https://www.archiweekend.com/viral-news/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-continued-an-individual-pursuit-to-stop-him-from-hurting-others/

Questions about Jeffrey Epstein “Suicide”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/autopsy-finds-broken-bones-in-jeffrey-epsteins-neck-deepening-questions-around-his-death/2019/08/14/d09ac934-bdd9-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.htmlhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/autopsy-points-to-possibility-epstein-was-strangled-reporthttps://channel933.iheart.com/content/new-evidence-suggests-jeffrey-epstein-was-strangled-dr-michael-baden/

Programmed to Kill: The Politics of Serial Murder, Dave McGowan, August 2004
https://www.amazon.com/Programmed-Kill-Politics-Serial-Murder/dp/0595326404/

The Ultimate Evil: The Search for the Sons of Sam, by Maury Terry, Introduction by Joshua Zeman
https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Evil-Search-Sons-Sam-ebook/dp/B08NFVHPP5/

(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics