[Article] The Frequency of US Presidential Assassination Conspiracies

Engraving of assassination of President Abraham Lincoln
Engraving of assassination of President Abraham Lincoln
US President Abraham Lincoln was Murdered by a Criminal Conspiracy

It is common to encounter implicit or explicit claims, especially by intellectuals, that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational, impossible or extremely rare. The phrase “conspiracy theory” as well as related phrases “conspiracy theorist,” “conspiracy”, and “conspiracist” are used more and more to dismiss any suggestion of a criminal conspiracy or even error in certain events.

These are generally significant events, often assassinations, murders, or suspected murders such as the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Malcolm X, the alleged suicide of late “financier” Jeffrey Epstein and others, where the alleged or suspected conspirators are usually authority figures in the group or groups the “conspiracy theory” labeler identifies strongly with.

EventDate(s)KilledOfficial Cause
Assassination of Senator Huey LongSep. 10, 1935Huey Long, Carl WeissCarl Weiss acting alone, Weiss killed by Long’s bodyguards
JFK AssassinationNov 22, 1963John F. Kennedy, J.D. TippitLee Harvey Oswald acting alone
Malcolm X AssassinationFebruary 21, 1965Malcolm X (born Malcolm Little)Originally convicted: Muhammad A. Aziz (exonerated)
Khalil Islam (exonerated)
Thomas Hagan

Conspiracy by enemies in the Nation of Islam.
MLK AssassinationApril 4, 1968Martin Luther KingJames Early Ray acting alone
RFK AssassinationJune 5, 1968Robert Francis KennedySirhan Sirhan acting alone
Oklahoma City BombingApril 19, 1995at least 168 peopleTimothy McVeigh, Terry Nichols
(Michael Fortier convicted of related offenses, but not the conspiracy, plea deal)
TWA Flight 800July 17, 1996230, all on boardaccidentally blew up
September 11 AttacksSeptember 11, 20012,996attributed to 19 hijackers acting on orders from Osama bin Laden
Anthrax attacksSeptember 18 – October 12, 20015 killedEventually blamed on researcher Bruce Ivins
Jeffrey Epstein “suicide”August 10, 20191 deadRuled a suicide
COVID-19 PandemicFall 2019 – PresentSeveral million worldwideUnknown
Most Prominent “Conspiracy Theories” Involve Homicide or Possible Homicide Cases

This common and increasing usage of “conspiracy theory” makes it difficult even to discuss suspicions of criminal conspiracies or even incompetence by powerful persons or groups, not unlike George Orwell’s fictional newspeak in the novel 1984. Newspeak is a controlled language of simplified grammar and restricted vocabulary designed to limit the individual’s ability to think and articulate “subversive” concepts such as personal identity, self-expression, and free will.

Frequency of “Conspiracy Theory” and Related Phrases in Google Books (Dec 3, 2022)

What Does the Data Show Us?

There are laws against conspiracy and groups of people are convicted of conspiracy all the time.

US FBI Attributes 14.7% of Homicides in 2019 to “Multiple Offenders,” a conspiracy in common usage. Twenty-seven point eight (27.8) percent attributed to an unknown offender or offenders, a possible conspiracy.

The FBI attributed 27.8% of homicides in 2019 to an unknown offender or offenders, a possible conspiracy. Unsolved murders are frequently attributed to gang/organized crime violence, for example: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gangs-drugs-blamed-for-unsolved-murders/

CBS Report in 2008 Attributing Many Unsolved Murders to Gangs and Drugs

FBI figures reviewed by The Associated Press show that the homicide clearance rate, as detectives call it, dropped from 91 percent in 1963 – the first year records were kept in the manner they are now – to 61 percent in 2007.

Law enforcement officials say the chief reason is a rise in drug- and gang-related killings, which are often impersonal and anonymous, and thus harder to solve than slayings among family members or friends. As a result, police departments are carrying an ever-growing number of “cold-case” murders on their books.

Gangs, Drugs Blamed For Unsolved Murders, December 9, 2008 (CBS/AP)

Official statistics can be incorrect due to political pressure, bias, or simple error. Official agencies often never admit such errors even if they quietly revise or discontinue reporting the faulty statistic. Thus it is prudent to find independent checks on such official claims.

A review of Wikipedia’s list of US serial killers showed that 56 of 553 identified serial killers active from 1950 to 2020 had accomplices, a conspiracy in common usage. This is 10.13% of the names listed. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices.  This provides a check on the FBI official numbers where the names of the killers and victims or at least forensic evidence of victims who could not be identified in some cases are available for independent review.

Another check on the FBI numbers especially relevant to the use of the phrase “conspiracy theory” to dismiss suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are assassinations or attempted assassinations of US Presidents.

Here Wikipedia’s List of United States presidential assassination attempts and plots which lists only officially alleged conspiracies is reviewed (on December 3, 2022). There are unproven conspiracy theories involving all four assassinations and many, possibly all, attempts to assassinate US presidents.

Wikipedia’s List of United States presidential assassination attempts and plots (December 3, 2022)

Four US Presidents — Abraham Lincoln, James A Garfield, William McKinley, and John F. Kennedy — have been assassinated. Of these, the assassination of President Lincoln was unquestionably a conspiracy, with concurrent attempts to kill several other cabinet members and officials. This is one in four or 25% — with a quite large error of course.

The Wikipedia list discusses thirty-seven (37) alleged attempts to kill a US President, including when out of office. Of these 9-10 were arguably alleged conspiracies, mostly involving foreign political groups often labeled “terrorists.” This gives 24.3 to 27% of US Presidential assassination attempts were conspiracies. This matches the one (1) in four (4) actual presidential assassinations.

The statistics are quite low however. With 95% confidence anywhere from 0 to 75% of actual Presidential assassinations are actual detectable conspiracies, ignoring a significant failure rate for detecting a conspiracy — in practice conspiracies are clearly difficult to prove. With larger numbers of failed assassination attempts, with 95% confidence anywhere from 3/37 to 16/37, 8% to 43% of failed assassination attempts are actual conspiracies. These ranges are consistent with the 14.7% of homicides in 2019 involve multiple offenders reported by the US FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation).

Herbert Hoover[edit]
On November 19, 1928,[58] President-elect Hoover embarked on a ten-nation "goodwill tour" of Central and South America.[59] While crossing the Andes Mountains from Chile, an assassination plot by Argentine anarchists was thwarted. The group was led by Severino Di Giovanni, who planned to blow up his train as it crossed the Argentinian central plain. The plotters had an itinerary but the bomber was arrested before he could place the explosives on the rails. Hoover professed unconcern, tearing off the front page of a newspaper that revealed the plot and explaining, "It's just as well that Lou shouldn't see it,"[60] referring to his wife. His complimentary remarks on Argentina were well received in both the host country and in the press.[61]
Franklin D. Roosevelt
The Soviet NKVD claimed to have discovered a Nazi German Waffen-SS plan to assassinate RooseveltWinston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin at the Tehran Conference in 1943.[64]
Harry S. Truman[edit]

Main article: Attempted assassination of Harry S. Truman
Mid-1947: During the Jewish insurgency in Palestine before the formation of the State of Israel, the Zionist Stern Gang was believed to have sent a number of letter bombs addressed to the president and high-ranking staff at the White House. The Secret Service had been alerted by British intelligence after similar letters had been sent to high-ranking British officials and the Gang claimed credit. The mail room of the White House intercepted the letters and the Secret Service defused them. At the time, the incident was not publicized. Truman's daughter Margaret Truman confirmed the incident in her biography of Truman published in 1972. It had earlier been told in a memoir by Ira R. T. Smith, who worked in the mail room.[65]

November 1, 1950: Two Puerto Rican pro-independence activistsOscar Collazo and Griselio Torresola, attempted to kill President Truman at the Blair House, where Truman was living while the White House was undergoing major renovations. In the attack, Torresola injured White House Policeman Joseph Downs and mortally wounded White House Policeman Leslie Coffelt. Coffelt returned fire, killing Torresola with a shot to the head. Collazo wounded an officer before being shot in the stomach. Collazo survived with serious injuries. Truman was not harmed, but he was placed at a huge risk. Collazo was convicted in a federal trial and received the death sentence. Truman commuted Collazo's death sentence to life in prison. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter further commuted Collazo's sentence to time served.[66]
Richard Nixon

Late May 1972: During Nixon's official visit to TehranIran, a "Marxist terrorist group" named People's Mujahedin of Iran blew up a bomb at Reza Shah's mausoleum, where Nixon was scheduled to attend a ceremony just 45 minutes after the explosion.[73] This may have been the earliest known attempt on the president's life by an Islamic extremist.
Jimmy Carter[edit]

Raymond Lee Harvey was an Ohio-born unemployed American drifter. He was arrested by the Secret Service after being found carrying a starter pistol with blank rounds, ten minutes before Carter was to give a speech at the Civic Center Mall in Los Angeles on May 5, 1979. Harvey had a history of mental illness,[78] but police had to investigate his claim that he was part of a four-man operation to assassinate the president.[79] According to Harvey, he fired seven blank rounds from the starter pistol on the hotel roof on the night of May 4 to test how much noise it would make. He claimed to have been with one of the plotters that night, whom he knew as "Julio". (This man was later identified as a 21-year-old illegal immigrant from Mexico, who gave the name Osvaldo Espinoza Ortiz.)[78] At the time of his arrest, Harvey had eight spent rounds in his pocket, as well as 70 unspent blank rounds for the gun.[80] Harvey was jailed on a $50,000 bond, given his transient status, and Ortiz was alternately reported as being held on a $100,000 bond as a material witness[78] or held on a $50,000 bond being charged with burglary from a car.[80] Charges against the pair were ultimately dismissed for a lack of evidence.[81]

NOTE: The Raymond Lee Harvey/Osvaldo Espinoza Ortiz case is obviously ambiguous since although arrests were apparently made, the charges were reportedly dismissed. Hence 9 or 10 conspiracy cases.

George H. W. Bush[edit]

See also: 1993 cruise missile strikes on Iraq
April 13, 1993: According to Kuwaiti authorities, and an FBI investigation [84] fourteen Kuwaiti and Iraqi men believed to be working for Saddam Hussein smuggled bombs into Kuwait, planning to assassinate former President Bush by a car bomb during his visit to Kuwait University three months after he had left office in January 1993.[85] The former president was on a visit to Kuwait in 1993 to commemorate the coalition's victory over Iraq in the Persian Gulf War when Kuwaiti officials claimed to have foiled an alleged assassination plot and arrested the suspects. At the time the former president was accompanied by his wife, two of his sons, former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, former Chief of Staff John Sununu, and former Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady. Of the 17 people Kuwaiti authorities arrested, two suspects, Wali Abdelhadi Ghazali and Raad Abdel-Amir al-Assadi, retracted their confessions at the trial, claiming that they were coerced.[86] A Kuwaiti court convicted all but one of the defendants. Then-president Bill Clinton responded by launching a cruise missile attack on an Iraqi intelligence building in the Mansour district of Baghdad. The plot was used as one of the justifications for the Iraq Resolution authorizing the 2003 U.S. invasion of the country. An analysis by the CIA's Counter-Terrorism Center concludes the assassination plot was likely fabricated by Kuwaiti authorities,[87] however at the time the FBI established that the plot had been directed by the Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS), and The CIA had received information suggesting that Saddam Hussein had authorized the assassination attempt to get revenge against the U.S, to punish Kuwait for working with the U.S, and to keep other Arab states for intervening in Iraq any further.[88] The day before the attack, on April 12th, 1993, the then U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. and future 64th U.S. secretary of state, Madeleine K. Albright, went before the U.N. Security Council to present evidence of the Iraqi plot with the hope of gaining international support.
Bill Clinton 

November 1994: Osama bin Laden recruited Ramzi Yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, to attempt to assassinate Clinton. However, Yousef decided that security would be too effective and decided to target Pope John Paul II instead.[92]

1996: During his visit to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Manila, Clinton's motorcade was rerouted before it was to drive over a bridge. Service officers had intercepted a message suggesting that an attack was imminent, and Lewis Merletti, the director of the Secret Service, ordered the motorcade to be re-routed. An intelligence team later discovered a bomb under the bridge. Subsequent U.S. investigation "revealed that [the plot] was masterminded by a Saudi terrorist living in Afghanistan named Osama bin Laden".[93]
Barack Obama

20112012: The far-right terrorist group FEAR plotted to carry out a series of terror attacks which included assassinating Obama.[107] The plot was foiled when four members of the group were arrested on murder charges and one, Michael Burnett, agreed to co-operate with authorities in return for a lighter sentence.[108]

Conclusion

Contrary to the popular belief among many intellectuals, clearly detected conspiracies are not exceptionally rare or non-existent, in Presidential assassinations and assassination attempts. Given that many actual conspiracies go unproven in more mundane murders, it is not unreasonable to suspect actual but unproven conspiracies in Presidential assassinations or other high profile murders or possible murders.

(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me (References follow this About Me section)

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

References

The Big Book of Serial Killers, Vol 1, by Jack Rosewood
https://www.amazon.com/Big-Book-Serial-Killers-Encyclopedia-ebook/dp/B071K51FQ4/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

FBI Expanded Homicide Data Table 4: Murder by Victim/Offender Situations, 2019
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-4.xls

Using Murder: The Social Construction of Serial Homicide, by Philip Jenkins, Aldine De Gruyter, New York, 1994

“Serial Killer” Conspiracy Cases

Note that the details of these crimes are quite unpleasant and are discussed in these references. The analysis in this article is only concerned with the proportion of cases that were conspiracies as defined in common usage — multiple offenders working together.

Paul Bernardo and Karla Homolka
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/paul-bernardo-and-karla-homolka-case

Kenneth Bianchi and Angelo Buono
https://allthatsinteresting.com/hillside-strangler-kenneth-bianchi-angelo-buono

Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy Lewis Norris
https://unhbcoe.org/en/Lawrence_Bittaker_and_Roy_Norris-0426802400

William Bonin (and 22-year-old Vernon Butts, as well as teenagers Gregory Miley, William Pugh, and James Munro)
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/01/07/Freeway-Killer-William-Bonin-convicted-of-luring-10-youths/3460977293230/

Douglas Clark and Carol Bundy
https://www.oxygen.com/mysteries-scandals/crime-time/carol-bundy-victim-mastermind-sunset-strip-killers

Dean Corll (with Elmer Wayne Henley and David Owen Brooks)
https://murderpedia.org/male.C/c/corll-dean.htm

Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez
https://justcriminals.info/2016/12/19/delfina-maria-de-jesus-gonzalez/

Patrick Kearney (and David Hill?)
https://criminalminds.fandom.com/wiki/Patrick_Kearney

Randy Steven Kraft and unknown accomplice or accomplices
https://murderpedia.org/male.K/k/kraft-randy.htm

Leonard Lake and Charles Ng
https://www.historicmysteries.com/charles-ng-and-leonard-lake/

John Allan Mohammad and Lee Boyd Malvo
https://stmuscholars.org/john-allen-muhammad-lee-boyd-malvo-the-dc-snipers/

David Ray Parker (and Cindy Hendy and others)
https://allthatsinteresting.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-killer
https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/albuquerque/items-david-parker-ray
https://www.thescarechamber.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-of-torture/

Fred West and Rosemary West
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/04/europe/fred-rosemary-west-murders-gbr-cmd-intl/index.html

Aileen Carol Wuornos (and Tyria Moore, never charged)
https://sites.psu.edu/harringpassion/2019/03/29/aileen-wuornos/

John Wayne Gacy and possible unknown accomplice or accomplices

https://theweek.com/articles/478154/did-serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-have-accompliceshttps://newsfeed.time.com/2012/02/13/serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-may-have-had-accomplices/https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/02/10/attorneys-believe-gacy-had-accomplices/https://www.oxygen.com/true-crime-buzz/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-went-on-a-personal-missionhttps://www.archiweekend.com/viral-news/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-continued-an-individual-pursuit-to-stop-him-from-hurting-others/

Questions about Jeffrey Epstein “Suicide”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/autopsy-finds-broken-bones-in-jeffrey-epsteins-neck-deepening-questions-around-his-death/2019/08/14/d09ac934-bdd9-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.htmlhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/autopsy-points-to-possibility-epstein-was-strangled-reporthttps://channel933.iheart.com/content/new-evidence-suggests-jeffrey-epstein-was-strangled-dr-michael-baden/

Programmed to Kill: The Politics of Serial Murder, Dave McGowan, August 2004
https://www.amazon.com/Programmed-Kill-Politics-Serial-Murder/dp/0595326404/

The Ultimate Evil: The Search for the Sons of Sam, by Maury Terry, Introduction by Joshua Zeman
https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Evil-Search-Sons-Sam-ebook/dp/B08NFVHPP5/

[Article] The Frequency of Serial Killer Conspiracies from Wikipedia Data

Serial Killer Conspiracies

Another brief followup to my article on the rationality of conspiracy theories. It is a common belief among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational.

The dictionary — as opposed to popular pejorative propaganda meaning — of “conspiracy theory” is simply a theory or hypothesis that some illegal or harmful event was caused by two or more malefactors working together. When surviving family, friends and neighbors, police investigators, news reporters or others suspect two or more perpetrators in a murder, they must consider a conspiracy theory.

The popular propaganda redefinition of “conspiracy theory,” the most straightforward dictionary phrase for a conspiracy theory, as “an irrational theory contradicted by evidence and reason” makes it difficult even to discuss and consider actual conspiracies in the modern world — not unlike the fictional newspeak in George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984.

United States FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) Homicide Statistics for 2019

A high fraction of events where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used to stigmatize suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are murders such as the assassination of President Kennedy or possible murders such as the suspicious “suicide” of financier Jeffrey Epstein where the suspected criminal conspiracy involves powerful persons such as high government officials, politicians, business leaders, or others. According to official FBI statistics about 14.7 percent of murders in 2019 were committed by multiple offenders, a conspiracy in common usage.

Almost twenty-seven percent (27%) of murders in 2019 were unsolved. Unsolved murders tend to be gang violence/organized crime murders, that is conspiracies that could not be proven. The larger, the more powerful, and the more secret a gang or organized crime group is perceived to be, the less willing witnesses are to come forward with testimony and evidence.

Official government numbers may be inaccurate due to political pressure, bias, or error. For example, serious questions have been raised about the FBI’s estimates of the number of serial killers and serial homicides in the early 1980s.

As a partial check on the FBI’s official numbers on murders with multiple offenders, I previously analyzed the frequency of conspiracies in high profile “serial killer” murder cases listed in Jack Rosewood’s Big Book of Serial Killers which lists one-hundred and fifty cases from around the world, mostly the United States. This analysis indicated about 5-10% of cases were serial killer conspiracies. Here I present a more extensive analysis of Wikipedia’s list of serial killers in the United States page, which has 553 serial killers reportedly active in the United States from 1950 to 2020 (I omitted the pre-1950 cases listed on the Wikipedia page).

Wikipedia List of serial killers in the United States screenshot (November 27, 2022)

Methods

The data was extracted from the Wikipedia page identified serial killers table to a CSV (comma separated values) file on August 18, 2022 for another analysis to understand the properties and possible causes of serial murders, notably the seeming 1970s-1980s serial killer wave. The analysis is done using the Python programming language, NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib.

The table includes a Notes column which enables identification of cases where there was one or more accomplice. The language “accomplice,” “accomplices,” “with partner”, “with husband,” “with wife,” and similar phrases is generally used to identify accomplices. Some accomplices are listed separately in the Name column of the table; some are not. Serial killers reportedly active in the United States from 1950 to 2020 were analyzed.

The accomplices refer to persons convicted in a court of law. They do not include unsubstantiated claims by the serial killer, suspects never convicted including named or unnamed suspects suggested in books such as Maury Terry’s The Ultimate Evil or Dave McGowan (no relation)’s Programmed to Kill. As discussed in my previous article, there is evidence of additional accomplices, never convicted, in a number of cases listed by Wikipedia with no accomplices in the Notes section. These include John Wayne Gacy, Patrick Kearney, Randy Kraft, and several others. These “maybe” serial killer conspiracies are not included in the results below which count only convicted accomplices.

The Wikipedia list of serial killers in the United States is extensive, appears correct, but there may be some errors.

The plot below gives a rough overview of the serial killer conspiracy cases — fifty-six (56) named serial killers out of 553 reportedly active from 1950 to 2020. This is 10.13% of the names listed in the table. The error is roughly 1.4% giving a ninety-five percent confidence interval of about 7.9% to 13.2% of identified serial killer cases involve conspiracies — have accomplices. Both the number of proven victims and the number of serial killers active peaks during the 1970s and 1980s, declining substantially in the 1990s up to 2020.

The green bars show the dates the serial killer and accomplices were active. The red circle shows the middle of this date range. The horizontal axis is the date in year. The vertical axis is the number of proven victims from the table. The red circles are labeled with the names of all identified serial killers from the table with the same middle of the date range. This shows some of the accomplices/conspirators. The data in the table, especially the notes column, is inconsistently presented, resulting in some serial killers not being grouped together. For example, Elmer Wayne Henley and Dean Corll, both shown in the plot, were accomplices. The table appears to credit Henley with only six (6) of the proven twenty-eight (28) murders organized by Corll, the ringleader.

Conclusion

Thus, proven in a court of law conspiracies are a small but significant fraction, about 10 percent (8-13% ninety-five percent confidence interval), of prominent serial killer cases — smaller than the 14.7 percent of murders with multiple offenders according to the FBI (in 2019). This is not surprising given the generally solitary nature of the crimes. Nonetheless, conspiracies are not exceptionally rare or unusual even in this type of murder.

Appendix: Deep Dive into Analysis

ACCOMPLICE CASES (56)
CASE NOTES MATCH AT LEAST ONE OF: accomplice, with wife, with husband, cult , accompliace, with his wife, with her husband, killers, partnership, with the aid of local teenagers
Bianchi, Kenneth Along with accomplice Angelo Buono Jr., known as "The Hillside Stranglers". Murdered young women in Los Angeles and Washington
Bittaker, Lawrence With accomplice Roy Norris known as "The Tool Box Killers"
Bonin, William Known as "The Freeway Killer"; preyed on young men and boys in southern California with several accomplices
Briley Brothers Three brothers and an accomplice responsible for 11 murders
Brown, Debra Denise Accomplice of Alton Coleman
Brummett, Lyle Raped and strangled three women in Texas with an accomplice
Bundy, Carol M. With accomplice Doug Clark, known as "The Sunset Strip Killers"; preyed on young women in West Hollywood and Los Angeles, California
Buono Jr., Angelo Along with accomplice Kenneth Bianchi, known as "The Hillside Stranglers". Murdered young women in Los Angeles
Carson, Michael Bear Along with his wife, Suzan Carson, dubbed "The San Francisco Witch Killers"; considered suspects in nearly a dozen other deaths in the U.S. and Europe[103]
Carson, Suzan Along with her husband, Michael Bear Carson, dubbed "The San Francisco Witch Killers"; considered suspects in nearly a dozen other deaths in the U.S. and Europe[103]
Chavez, Juan Rodriguez Known as "The Thrill Killer"; killed a neighbor during a burglary; paroled and went on a killing spree with a teenage accomplice
Clark, Doug With accomplice Carol M. Bundy, known as "The Sunset Strip Killers"; preyed on young women in West Hollywood and Los Angeles, California
Coffman, Cynthia Kidnapped four women by ATMs before accomplice strangled them
Coleman, Alton Multi-state killer who, along with his accomplice, murdered a man and injured another, murdered four women and three young girls, and raped a young girl
Cooks, Jessie Lee Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Copeland, Faye Along with her husband, Ray Copeland, the oldest couple ever sentenced to death in the United States
Copeland, Ray Along with his wife, Faye Copeland, the oldest couple ever sentenced to death in the United States
Corll, Dean Known as "The Candy Man" and "The Pied Piper". Crimes referred to as "The Houston Mass Murders"; raped and murdered boys and young men in Texas with the aid of teenaged accomplices David Owen Brooks and Elmer Wayne Henley
Davis, Girvies Accomplice of Richard Holman; killed robbery witnesses, saying it was "easier" than wearing a mask
Dieteman, Samuel Accomplice Dale Hausner Committed suicide in prison
Gallego, Gerald Accomplice Charlene Gallego released in 1997
Gecht, Robin Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Gordon, Steven Dean Sex offender who raped and strangled prostitutes in Santa Ana and Anaheim, California, aided by accomplice Franc Cano
Graham, Gwendolyn Accomplice of Cathy Wood; nurse's aide that preyed on elderly women in a Walker, Michigan nursing home
Green, Larry Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Gretzler, Douglas With accomplice Willie Steelman, killed witnesses to their robberies spree across California and Arizona
Henley, Elmer Wayne Crimes referred to as "The Houston Mass Murders"; accomplice of Dean Corll, who he later killed in self-defense
Herzog, Loren Along with accompliace Wesley Shermantine known as "The Speed Freak Killers"
Holman, Richard Accomplice of Girvies Davis; killed robbery witnesses
Kadamovas, Jurijus Accomplice of Iouri Mikhel; Lithuanian immigrant who kidnapped five people for ransom money in California and killed them
Knorr, Theresa Her sons, William and Robert Jr., were accomplices
Knotek, Michelle Tortured and abused boarders in her home with her husband
Kokoraleis, Andrew Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Kokoraleis, Thomas Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Koster, Brent Teenage accomplice of Danny Ranes, who actively participated in three of his four murders
Lake, Leonard Along with accomplice Charles Ng, they are also known as "The Operation Miranda Killers"
Lewingdon, Gary Together with brother Thaddeus Lewingdon, known as "The .22 Caliber Killers"
Lewingdon, Thaddeus Together with brother Gary Lewingdon, known as "The .22 Caliber Killers"
Malvo, Lee Boyd With accomplice John Allen Muhammad, perpetrated the D.C. sniper attacks
McCoy, Stephen Along with his accomplice, James Paster, the pair murdered three people in the Houston Area
Mikhel, Iouri Accomplice of Jurijus Kadamovas; Russian immigrant who kidnapped five people in California for ransom money and killed them
Moore, Manuel Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Muhammad, John Allen With accomplice Lee Boyd Malvo, perpetrated the D.C. sniper attacks
Neelley, Alvin Committed murders with wife Judith Neelley
Neelley, Judith Committed murders with husband Alvin Neelley
Ng, Charles Along with accomplice Leonard Lake, they are also known as "The Operation Miranda Killers"
Norris, Roy With accomplice Lawrence Bittaker known as "Tool Box Killers"
Pardo, Manuel South Florida former police officer who acted in partnership with Rolando Garcia; the two claimed to be ridding the world of drug dealers
Paster, James Along with his accomplice, Stephen McCoy, the pair murdered three people in the Houston Area. Paster confessed to two other murders for which he was never tried.
Ranes, Danny Kidnapped, raped and murdered women around Kalamazoo, Michigan with teenage accomplice Brent Koster
Schmid, Charles Known as "The Pied Piper of Tucson"; murdered three teenage girls in Arizona with the aid of local teenagers
Shermantine, Wesley Along with accompliace Loren Herzog, known as "The Speed Freak Killers"
Simon, J.C.X. Part of "The Death Angels" cult responsible for the Zebra murders
Spreitzer, Edward Member of the satanic cult and organized crime group known as "The Ripper Crew" or "The Chicago Rippers"
Toole, Ottis Accomplice of Henry Lee Lucas; claimed to have murdered Adam Walsh
Wood, Cathy Accomplice of Gwendolyn Graham; nurse's aide that preyed on elderly women in a Walker, Michigan nursing home. Released on January 16, 2020
ACCOMPLICE CASES (56)

References

The Big Book of Serial Killers, Vol 1, by Jack Rosewood
https://www.amazon.com/Big-Book-Serial-Killers-Encyclopedia-ebook/dp/B071K51FQ4/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

FBI Expanded Homicide Data Table 4: Murder by Victim/Offender Situations, 2019
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-4.xls

Using Murder: The Social Construction of Serial Homicide, by Philip Jenkins, Aldine De Gruyter, New York, 1994

“Serial Killer” Conspiracy Cases

Note that the details of these crimes are quite unpleasant and are discussed in these references. The analysis in this article is only concerned with the proportion of cases that were conspiracies as defined in common usage — multiple offenders working together.

Paul Bernardo and Karla Homolka
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/paul-bernardo-and-karla-homolka-case

Kenneth Bianchi and Angelo Buono
https://allthatsinteresting.com/hillside-strangler-kenneth-bianchi-angelo-buono

Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy Lewis Norris
https://unhbcoe.org/en/Lawrence_Bittaker_and_Roy_Norris-0426802400

William Bonin (and 22-year-old Vernon Butts, as well as teenagers Gregory Miley, William Pugh, and James Munro)
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/01/07/Freeway-Killer-William-Bonin-convicted-of-luring-10-youths/3460977293230/

Douglas Clark and Carol Bundy
https://www.oxygen.com/mysteries-scandals/crime-time/carol-bundy-victim-mastermind-sunset-strip-killers

Dean Corll (with Elmer Wayne Henley and David Owen Brooks)
https://murderpedia.org/male.C/c/corll-dean.htm

Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez
https://justcriminals.info/2016/12/19/delfina-maria-de-jesus-gonzalez/

Patrick Kearney (and David Hill?)
https://criminalminds.fandom.com/wiki/Patrick_Kearney

Randy Steven Kraft and unknown accomplice or accomplices
https://murderpedia.org/male.K/k/kraft-randy.htm

Leonard Lake and Charles Ng
https://www.historicmysteries.com/charles-ng-and-leonard-lake/

John Allan Mohammad and Lee Boyd Malvo
https://stmuscholars.org/john-allen-muhammad-lee-boyd-malvo-the-dc-snipers/

David Ray Parker (and Cindy Hendy and others)
https://allthatsinteresting.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-killer
https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/albuquerque/items-david-parker-ray
https://www.thescarechamber.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-of-torture/

Fred West and Rosemary West
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/04/europe/fred-rosemary-west-murders-gbr-cmd-intl/index.html

Aileen Carol Wuornos (and Tyria Moore, never charged)
https://sites.psu.edu/harringpassion/2019/03/29/aileen-wuornos/

John Wayne Gacy and possible unknown accomplice or accomplices

https://theweek.com/articles/478154/did-serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-have-accomplices
https://newsfeed.time.com/2012/02/13/serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-may-have-had-accomplices/
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/02/10/attorneys-believe-gacy-had-accomplices/
https://www.oxygen.com/true-crime-buzz/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-went-on-a-personal-mission
https://www.archiweekend.com/viral-news/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-continued-an-individual-pursuit-to-stop-him-from-hurting-others/

Questions about Jeffrey Epstein “Suicide”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/autopsy-finds-broken-bones-in-jeffrey-epsteins-neck-deepening-questions-around-his-death/2019/08/14/d09ac934-bdd9-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.htmlhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/autopsy-points-to-possibility-epstein-was-strangled-reporthttps://channel933.iheart.com/content/new-evidence-suggests-jeffrey-epstein-was-strangled-dr-michael-baden/

Programmed to Kill: The Politics of Serial Murder, Dave McGowan, August 2004
https://www.amazon.com/Programmed-Kill-Politics-Serial-Murder/dp/0595326404/

The Ultimate Evil: The Search for the Sons of Sam, by Maury Terry, Introduction by Joshua Zeman
https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Evil-Search-Sons-Sam-ebook/dp/B08NFVHPP5/

(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics

[Video] New Ways to Lie with Statistics

Uncensored Video Links: BitChute NewTube Odysee

Introduction to the new and improved ways to lie with statistics enabled by modern computers and technology.

Some References:

Example of Fishy Numbers: http://wordpress.jmcgowan.com/wp/video-article-the-cdcs-grossly-contradictory-death-numbers/

Deep Dive: https://www.authorea.com/users/425106/articles/547336-improving-cdc-data-practices-recommendations-for-improving-the-united-states-centers-for-disease-control-cdc-data-practices-for-pneumonia-influenza-and-covid-19-v-1-1

Serial Killers: http://wordpress.jmcgowan.com/wp/murder-math-do-executions-deter-serial-killers/

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(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

Murder Math: Do Executions Deter Serial Killers?

Introduction

The 1980’s were the decade of serial killers. Serial killers were in the news, Hollywood movies, bestselling novels like Thomas Harris’s Red Dragon and Silence of the Lambs, and True Crime books. The serial killer craze overlapped with fears of missing children, hysteria about the Dungeons and Dragons role playing game, and tales of Satanic Ritual Abuse — themes exploited in Netflix’s hit 80s nostalgia show Stranger Things.

The craze started in the 1970s with high profile serial killer cases such as Ted Bundy and John Wayne Gacy and continued into the early 1990s with the hit Silence of the Lambs movie starring Jodie Foster (the fifth highest grossing movie in 1991) and the notorious Jeffrey Dahmer cannibal serial killer case.

The Silence of the Lambs Movie Poster (1991)

In the last three decades serial killers have waned in the news and public consciousness. The 1980s is often remembered for a Satanic Panic, a supposedly entirely unfounded hysteria about Satanism, ritual abuse in day care centers and Satanic serial killers. Henry Lee Lucas’s once widely repeated claims to have killed six-hundred people as a contract killer for a Satanic cult have been largely dismissed as fantasy.

A US Senate committee and the FBI produced an estimate in 1983 of about 3,600 Americans possibly murdered in 1981 by serial killers, rounded up to 4-5,000 in some news media reports. In 1984 the FBI rolled the number back to about ten percent of all murders, or about 540 Americans possibly murdered by serial killers in a year. Scholars challenged the FBI and government figures as grossly exaggerating the number of murders by serial killers. (see Using Murder: The Social Construction of Serial Homicide by Philip Jenkins for an in depth discussion of the statistics.)

Was the 1980s Serial Killer Wave Real?

Was there even a wave of serial killer cases or was the serial killer wave the product of news coverage and clever marketing by the FBI’s Behavioral Sciences Unit? Have serial killer cases declined in frequency and — if so — why?

Wikipedia’s List of serial killers in the United States purports to be a comprehensive list of known serial killers in the United States with names, dates, and numbers of proven and possible victims from the 1700s to the present (data table downloaded on August 21, 2022).

Indeed this Wikipedia database shows a dramatic surge in serial killers peaking in the early to mid 1980’s and declining back to historically very low levels in the 1990s through the present. This surge is clear in all cases, serial killers with five or more known victims, and even the rare serial killers with ten or more known victims such as Jeffrey Dahmer.

WHY?

The serial killer surge occurred during a period of almost no executions with a complete cessation for four years after the 1972 Furman versus George Supreme Court cast. As executions ramped back up in the 1990’s serial killer cases dropped.

This plot shows executions of serial killers between 1950 and 2020, with about 115 executed out of a total of 553 from the Wikipedia list. These are particularly heinous crimes often involving sadistic torture of victims. Serial killers face a much higher probability of execution than the typical murderer.

The next plot shows several key data series from 1950 to 2020. The red line shows the execution rate, executions per 150 million Americans. The count of executions in the United States is from the ESPY file from deathpenaltyinfo.org and the US Executions from 2003 to 2020 reported by statista (URL: https://www.statista.com/statistics/629845/number-of-executions-per-year-in-the-us-since-2000/)

One can see executions had dropped to almost zero by 1966, well before the 1972 Furman versus Georgia Supreme Court case that completely stopped executions until 1976. Many of the few executions during the 1970s were murderers who wanted or claimed they wanted to be executed such as Utah’s Gary Gilmore case. Executions began to rise slowly in 1982 reaching a post 1972 peak in 1998.

The green line shows the overall United States Homicide Rate in Homicides per Million Americans. The homicide rate is usually quoted as homicides per 100,000 (100K). Per million is used to make the scale comparable to the other key data series in the plot. The overall murder rate doubles during this period, dropping back to historical levels in the 1990’s as executions rose back to late 1950, early 1960s levels.

The US Homicide rate is from two sources: https://www.infoplease.com/us/crime/homicide-rate-1950-2014 and https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murder-homicide-rate

The light blue bars show the proven victims of named serial killers from the Wikipedia list. The shorter dark blue bars show the number of active named serial killers. The list often gives a range of years when the killer was active, e.g. 1982-1986. The proven victims and the serial killer are assigned to the mid-point of the range for simplicity, e.g. 1984. The number of active serial killers by year, defined in this way, is inversely correlated with the execution rate: more executions, fewer serial killers.

The yellow bars show the number of victims of mass shootings from Wikipedia’s List of mass shootings in the United States (data tables downloaded on August 24, 2022). The number of mass shooting victims has climbed as the number of executions has dropped since the 1998 peak while the number of serial killer victims has remained low.

The plot below shows the US named serial killer proven victims per year versus the execution rate, executions per 150 million Americans. We can see that the maximum number of proven victims drops exponentially with the execution rate. At low execution rates, there is significant unexplained variation in the number — suggestion other factors at play when executions are rare or nonexistent.

The plot below shows the US Murder Victims per 100,000 Americans per year versus the execution rate, again executions for 150 million Americans. We can see the murder rate drops exponentially with the execution rate. Again, at low execution rates, there is significant unexplained variation indicating other factors than the execution rate play a role when executions are rare or non existent. R**2, known as “R squared” is the coefficient of determination and is roughly the fraction of variation in the data explained by the model.

There appears to be a strong relationship between the execution rate and the number of murders — both the general murder rate and the serial killer murder rate. Both popular news and academic articles often claim mystification as to both the reasons for the sharp late 1960’s rise in murders compared to the historical 1950s, early 1960’s levels and similarly the dramatic drop in murders in the 1990s. It is true that the execution rate is probably highly correlated with other “tough on crime” measures over time.

Alternative Theories

Nonetheless, there are several prominent attempts to explain the sharp drop in murders in the 1990s without crediting any “tough on crime” policies, let alone the execution rate.

One attempt to explain the drop in the general murder rate in the 1990s is the removal of lead paint and piping in poor — often Black areas — and yet this would probably have been an even more serious problem in the 1950s and early 1960s when murder rates and serial murder rates were quite low. Most named serial killers are white, not Black. Contrary to old claims from the FBI, some serial killers are Black, but white serial killers still dominate the statistics. Yet serial killer murders declined as well in the 1990s as the execution rate climbed to the 1998 peak.

The economist Steven D Levitt of Freakonomics fame tried to explain the 1990s drop as a delayed effect of the 1973 legalization of abortion in Roe vs Wade. He has also suggested other explanations — but not executions.

Here, for example, is a 2004 article by Steven D. Levitt ruling out increased use of capital punishment as the cause of the 1990s decline in murders. He claims:

“given the rarity of with which executions are carried out in this country and the long delays in doing so, a rational criminal should not be deterred by the threat of execution” (emphasis added)

https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/understanding-why-crime-fell-1990s-four-factors-explain-decline-and

This is a rather odd statement for a scientific data analysis where one ought to look at empirical data. Who said murderers are rational? Most serial killers are not rational as normally defined. They are often found legally sane which is a narrower concept than common notions of rationality. Indeed the historical data suggests relatively low levels of execution have deterred both highly irrational serial killers and presumably somewhat more rational ordinary murderers.

The Conspiracy Question

The stereotype of serial killers is that they are lone nuts. However the Wikipedia list of US serial killers actually lists at least 57 serial killers active between 1950 and 2020 with an accomplice or accomplices in the Notes section out of 553 active serial killers for a total of 89 killers including the accomplices. This is about 10.3% (57/553) to 16.09% (89/553) of the serial killers depending on how one counts accomplices. In common usage, the murders are the work of a conspiracy: two or more perpetrators.

The list appears to identify only accomplices convicted in court cases. For example, there was strong forensic and eyewitness evidence that Randy Kraft, one of the three seemingly independent California “Freeway Killers” of the 70s and 80s, had at least one accomplice. Police suspected one of his roommates but were unable to find enough evidence or secure a confession. The Wikipedia list does not mention any accomplices for Randy Kraft. Thus, the list probably understates the number of cases with actual accomplices.

It is true that many of these conspiracy cases are pairs such as the so-called “Toolbox Killers” Lawrence Bittaker and Roy Norris. Nonetheless, there are several cases of three or more “serial killers” working together. Another California “Freeway Killer,” William Bonin had an astonishing four accomplices — all convicted or confessed. The Briley Brothers were three brothers and an accomplice Duncan Eric Meekins — another total of four. Dean Corll has at least two accomplices, both convicted: Elmer Wayne Henley and David Brooks. The so-called “Ripper Crew,” a Satanic cult, in Chicago included at least four (4) convicted members: Robin Gecht, Andrew Kokoraleis, Thomas Kokoraleis, and Edward Spreitzer. Four people — Manuel Moore, Larry Green, Jessie Lee Cooks, and J. C. X. Simon — were convicted of the so-called Zebra Murders. That is five cases and twenty (20) out of 553 active identified serial killers between 1950 and 2020 with three or more clearly identified — convicted or confessed — conspirators, about one to four percent depending on how one counts the cases, accomplices and serial killers.

Only small serial murder conspiracies have been demonstrated in court or by rigorous forensic evidence. There is however a popular literature alleging some or a large fraction of serial killer cases are the work of a larger conspiracy or conspiracies such as Dave McGowan’s Programmed to Kill (no relation) and Maury Terry’s The Ultimate Evil. These works blame the serial murders on Satanic cults, neo-Nazis, elite pedophile networks and CIA MK-ULTRA-like mind control programs, often combined into a single super-conspiracy and often overlapping with the Satanic Ritual Abuse allegations of the 1980s — which in fact continue to the present.

The Late Dave McGowan, author of Programmed to Kill. (left)

It is more difficult to identify and convict murderers in larger conspiracies such as street gang violence, the “Mafia”, and other higher level organized crime. Many unsolved murders — often in inner city Black neighborhoods — are attributed to street gang violence. Larger conspiracies are more effective at intimidating witnesses and corrupting investigations than lone killers or pairs of killers. Larger conspiracies can be long lived and technically sophisticated, better at destroying forensic evidence, disposing of bodies etc. Proving a gang leader or organized crime official has ordered a murder can be difficult or impossible.

The serial killer super conspiracy theories invoke confessions by some serial killers such as the “Son of Sam” David Berkowitz claiming to have been part of a larger conspiracy and various anomalies in some serial killer cases, some quite odd and suspicious. For example, serial killer Bob Berdella, who owned Bob’s Bizarre Bazaar, a boutique that sold artifacts of the occult, home was purchased by Kansas City multi-millionaire Delbert Dunmire — a former bank robber — who eventually destroyed the home and presumably any remaining evidence.

Cary Stayner, convicted of killing four women around the Yosemite National Park in California, is the older brother of Stephen Stayner, a high profile victim of abduction by child molester Keith Parnell — the subject of national news stories and later a TV mini-series.

Police largely failed to investigate a series of disappearances of teenage boys, many from the same Junior High School, in Dean Corll’s neighborhood in Houston, Texas despite pleas from parents some of whom hired private investigators and posted flyers throughout the neighborhood — until the boys were found buried in Corll’s rented boathouse after accomplice Elmer Wayne Henley killed Corll and called the police.

It is unclear how to evaluate such anomalies. Serial killers are quite unusual. The cases frequently attract unusually high levels of publicity. The cases often overlap with prostitution and other illegal activities as well as legal but often socially taboo activities such as homosexuality or occult practices. In some cases, the police may be paid off to “look the other way” or even involved in these activities, which may explain some instances of remarkably inept policing.

Some of these theories emphasize the military background of some serial killers, suggesting they were specially trained or even brainwashed by MK-ULTRA like mind control programs during military service. Reviewing the fifty-seven (57) entries with identified accomplices active from 1950 to 2020 in the Wikipedia list — giving a total of 89 killers including the accomplices, only nine (9 or 15.8%) appear to have served in the US military: Doug Clark, Gary Lewingdon, John Allen Muhammad, Leonard Lake, Manuel Pardo, Roy Norris, and William Bonin. The five-thirty-eight statistics web site published an article in 2015 estimating that about 13.4% of US males have served in the US military.

Since most serial killers are men, there is little evidence that US military veterans are over- or under-represented among serial killers — at least who have identified accomplices. One might expect serial killers in a super conspiracy to be over-represented among serial killers with identified accomplices.

Relevant to the causation of the serial killer wave and the more recent mass shooting wave, some of these theories, notably Dave McGowan’s Programmed to Kill, argue the serial killer wave cases were manufactured in part to frighten the US public into embracing oppressive “tough on crime” policies that increase the power of the CIA, FBI, and other police and security agencies. Thus, there is no deterrent effect from executions but rather a wave of “false flag” operations to undercut more liberal policies such as reducing or eliminating use of the death penalty.

Conclusion

The Eighties serial killer wave was real, not wholly a product of media hype or manipulated statistics from the FBI Behavioral Sciences Unit or other official sources, despite both government and media exaggerations such as the Henry Lee Lucas case and the very high claimed numbers of Americans killed by serial killers during the early 1980s.

The major contributing factor to the wave was probably the dramatic drop in the execution rate and/or associated “tough on crime” measures in the mid 1960s.

The evidence for a super conspiracy behind the serial killer wave such as proposed by the late Dave McGowan in Programmed to Kill is quite weak but not non-existent. The anomalies cited in such theories probably can be explained by the unusual nature of the crimes and perpetrators, the extreme levels of publicity, unidentified accomplices — somewhat larger small conspiracies — which comprise 10-16% of the cases, and overlaps with illegal activities such as prostitution and police corruption.

A similar rise in murders — though not as great — only a factor of two — occurred in general US murders, generally less horrific and less likely to receive the death penalty than serial killers.

The significant variation in murder rates, both general US and serial killer, at lower execution rates indicates other factors come into play as well when executions are rare or do not occur.

We may be seeing a surge of mass shootings as the execution rate has declined since 1998 instead of the surge of serial killers in the 1960s and 1970s following the near cessation of executions culminating in a total cessation for four years after the 1972 Furman versus Georgia Supreme Court decision.

Note that these conclusions are not an endorsement of capital punishment, nor do they address a range of other issues regarding capital punishment such as wrongful convictions, racial and other discrimination in the application of capital punishment, and the relative effectiveness of life imprisonment without possibility of parole.

(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Video] Does the CIA Control the US with Blackmail?

Uncensored Video Links: BitChute Odyssee RUMBLE

Short twelve minute video on whether the CIA used the tiny Franklin
Federal Credit Union in Omaha, Nebraska in the 1980s as cover for a
sexual blackmail operation that ensnared top officials in the Reagan
and Bush I administrations.

Link to longer article: http://wordpress.jmcgowan.com/wp/book-review-does-the-cia-control-the-us-with-blackmail/

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#

(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Book Review] Does the CIA Control the US with Blackmail?

Did the CIA collect sexual blackmail information on the Reagan and Bush administrations in the 1980s, secretly controlling the country? Is the CIA continuing to do this today with front men such as the late financier Jeffrey Epstein? Was the Franklin Scandal the tip of a Satanic iceberg that continues today or the crazed QAnon of the 80s or both?

  • The Franklin Scandal: A Story of Powerbrokers, Child Abuse & Betrayal
  • by Nick Bryant
  • TrineDay Walterville, OR
  • (C) 2009, 2012
  • 629 pages

Nick Bryant Web Site: https://nickbryantnyc.com/

Nick Bryant YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCL-EuWGMznqwn7AomOPXNjQ

Introduction

On November 4, 1988, the National Credit Union Association (NCUA) and the FBI shut down the Franklin Community Federal Credit Union in Omaha, Nebraska, quickly determining that about $40 million had been embezzled from the credit union. The investigators indicted the credit union manager Lawrence “Larry” E. King, a gay African-American Omaha native, Republican activist, and gifted singer who performed the National Anthem at the 1984 Republican Convention. Amongst other things, King claimed to be a friend of President George H.W. Bush (Bush I), showing off a picture of Bush with him. King was eventually convicted of embezzling the missing money and other financial crimes.

Against the backdrop of the massive Savings and Loan (S&L) and junk bond scandals of the late 1980s, ultimately costing taxpayers about $200 billion, the missing $40 million was a drop in the bucket. But allegations of pedophilia, prostitution, pandering of underage boys and girls to powerful business and political figures and even Satanic ritual abuse by Larry King and his associates had been accumulating for years in the Nebraska foster care system where King’s cousin and her family “adopted” several foster children who reported substantial abuse to the authorities.

The Nebraska State Senate established a committee, “the Franklin Committee,” to investigate both the financial scandal and the allegations of sex crimes. The committee hired a private investigator Gary Caradori who managed to find at least four additional alleged victims with similar stories: Alisha Owen, Troy Boner, Danny King and Paul Bonacci. The federal government, state of Nebraska, and Douglas County (Omaha) empaneled three separate grand juries to investigate.

The grand juries, the FBI, and the Nebraska State Patrol (NSP) soon focused on an alleged conspiracy by Gary Caradori and the alleged victims to get a lucrative book or movie deal and/or lawsuit settlements by accusing numerous powerful figures in Nebraska of sex crimes including Omaha Police Department (OPD) Chief Robert Wadman, Omaha World-Herald (the largest paper in Omaha) publisher Harold Andersen, department store heir and millionaire Alan Baer, and a number of others.

At least according to his family, friends, and colleagues, Caradori flew to Chicago with his eight year old son AJ, ostensibly to attend a baseball game, to acquire actual blackmail photos or video from Rusty Nelson, the alleged blackmail photographer of King’s sex and blackmail ring. Caradori’s plane disintegrated or blew up mysteriously on the way back to Omaha, killing Caradori and his son. No blackmail photos or videos were recovered from the wreckage according to official reports.

Acting on the grand jury report, the Nebraska authorities successfully convicted Alisha Owen of perjury. At least two of the victim-witnesses, Troy Boner and Danny King, recanted their stories under interrogation and testified against Owen, claiming Caradori had conspired with them to make up the original stories in search of movie deals and legal settlements.

The Franklin Committee was shut down. John W. DeCamp, a former Nebraska state senator involved in the investigation, wrote a book The Franklin Cover-up: Child Abuse, Satanism, and Murder in Nebraska alleging a massive cover-up. DeCamp linked the scandal to the CIA, the Iran-Contra scandal, and Satanism. Theories about the scandal proliferated on the Internet.

Nick Bryant’s The Franklin Scandal

Nick Bryant’s The Franklin Scandal: A Story of Powerbrokers, Child Abuse, and Betrayal devotes 629 pages to the scandal, focusing on the alleged victims with a hefty 154 page chapter “State vs Owen” on Alisha Owen and her perjury trial. Bryant traveled to Nebraska many times over several years, interviewing and befriending many of the alleged victims and tracking down several additional alleged victims starting from a lengthy list of possible victims compiled by Gary Caradori before his death.

This is a very long book with extensive information on some aspects of the scandal, especially the alleged victims and their stories. There are several sections with fairly explicitly discussions alleged sado-masochistic encounters and sex parties that may be difficult for some readers.

The book is organized in a loosely chronological order, but jumps around disconcertingly between chapters and sometimes sections. For example the chapter on Gary Caradori includes Caradori’s death and the end of the Franklin Committee (state senate). The subsequent extremely long “State vs Owen” chapter jumps back to the grand jury investigations when Caradori was still alive, following Alisha Owen instead of Caradori.

I came away from reading the book feeling that some of the claims were probably true. There was a cover-up and Gary Caradori was probably murdered.

That said, there is clearly reasonable doubt, indeed more than reasonable doubt. There are no pictures or video, DNA test results, or other solid forensic evidence supporting the allegations. The book opens with a wild goose chase with alleged blackmail photographer Rusty Nelson that never produced any pictures, film, or video that Nelson claimed he had stashed in remote locations in Colorado.

The alleged witnesses — mostly victims — all have significant credibility issues: criminal records, psychological problems, drug use, confessed involvement in highly illegal activities, and changing and contradictory stories. This is particularly true of Paul Bonacci who has reported some of the most bizarre experiences including Satanic ritual abuse claims and was diagnosed with Multiple Personality Disorder (MPD) — now known as Dissociative Identity Disorder (DID) and Rusty Nelson, the alleged blackmail photographer whom Bryant has caught lying to him repeatedly according to the book.

The book actually provides very limited information on the named alleged perpetrators other than Larry King: millionaire department store heir Alan Baer, Omaha World-Herald publisher Harold Andersen, backroom Nebraska political figure Eugene Mahoney, Omaha Police Chief Robert Wadman, and others. This may be to avoid libel lawsuits, but one would expect these people to have other skeletons in their closets if the Franklin allegations are true, a form of partial corroboration of the allegations. One person named by the witnesses, Omaha World-Herald reporter Peter Citron, was convicted of child molestation independent of the Franklin investigation for example.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1990/07/23/Columnist-gets-prison-terms-for-child-sexual-assaults/3097648705600/

Columnist gets prison terms for child sexual assaults

by Jon Sweet UPI, July 23, 1990

OMAHA — A former newspaper columnist and television entertainment critic was sentenced in court Monday to prison for a term of three to eight years for sexually molesting two young boys in his home.

Peter Citron, who pleaded no contest to two felony counts of sexually assaulting a minor, was also declared a mentally disordered sex offender and ordered to undergo treatment during his prison term.

(….)

In his interviews promoting the book, Nick Bryant complains about the unwillingness of editors at mainstream book publishers and magazines to publish the book or his articles on the scandal (TrineDay specializes in “conspiracy” and other “fringe” topics), attributing this resistance to “cognitive dissonance,” perhaps hinting at a larger super-conspiracy preventing publication as well. The book suggests that Larry King was working with DC lobbyist Craig Spence in a larger CIA backed sex and blackmail ring providing underage boys to top officials in the George H.W. Bush administration, perhaps even including Bush I himself. However, given the absence of solid forensic evidence such as photos, film, DNA etc., it is easy to see why most editors considering both their reputation and the possibility of lawsuits from powerful, wealthy persons would pass on the story.

“Conspiracy Theory” versus “Conspiracy Theory”

The phrase “conspiracy theory” is frequently used to dismiss allegations of crime, misconduct, and even just gross incompetence by groups of powerful people, especially authority figures in the worldview of the person or persons shouting “conspiracy theory”– without mentioning or addressing the specific facts or logic of the conspiracy theory.

Thus, recently for example, suggestions that US government officials erred in funding dangerous gain of function research into bat coronaviruses as the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) over the objections of hundreds of prominent scientists questioning the “gain of function” research during the Obama administration and lo and behold the enhanced coronavirus might have escaped from WIV some time in late 2019 were immediately dismissed as a “conspiracy theory” in February of 2020 in what was clearly a coordinated media campaign organized in part by Peter Daszak, head of the EcoHealth Alliance which acted as the conduit for government funding of the “gain of function” research at WIV.

With conspiracy theories about larger conspiracies, it is often said “someone would have talked” as if no one has talked. In fact, as with the Franklin Scandal it is common to find multiple people talked in many alleged conspiracies. This was noticeable with many of the multiple victim child molestation cases of the 1980s, some of which such as the McMartin Preschool case featured many alleged victims.

In these “several people talked” cases, the multiple witnesses can be explained away by alleging a conspiracy to fabricate a conspiracy, generally orchestrated consciously or not by the investigators, in this case Gary Caradori. Cases like the McMartin Preschool case were explained away by blaming leading questioning by the therapists who interviewed the children, false memory syndrome, and similar excuses.

Those trying to discredit the “conspiracy theory” generally try to avoid or minimize the use of the word conspiracy in describing their own conspiracy theories as this may raise questions in the minds of listeners indoctrinated to believe conspiracies by their beloved authority figures are impossible. In the Franklin case, the authorities used the phrase “a Carefully Crafted Hoax” to describe the conspiracy allegedly organized by Gary Caradori.

Once you have voted for Bill Clinton it is hard to accept that he would sexually harass subordinates or that his wife and staff would conspire to cover up such misconduct. However, “a vast right-wing conspiracy” to fabricate the many scandals that have dogged the Clintons seems entirely reasonable and likely.

Prior to Monica Lewinsky, several women had alleged that Bill Clinton had sexually harassed or even raped them. Unlike the Franklin case, Monica Lewinsky with some coaching by Linda Tripp retained forensic DNA evidence of her relationship with Clinton. Linda Tripp was even taping her phone conversations with Lewinsky. A certain resemblance to the alleged Franklin sexual blackmail scheme is evident in Clinton’s misadventures.

The CIA and Satanism

Nick Bryant argues unequivocally in online interviews and to some extent in the book that Larry King and Craig Spence were CIA “assets” recruited in South East Asia during the Vietnam war. King served in the US military in Thailand during the war. Spence worked for ABC News in Vietnam at about the same time. A few of the witnesses such as Paul Bonacci and Rusty Nelson alleged a CIA involvement in the alleged sex and blackmail scheme.

King supposedly recruited underage boys and sometimes girls from the famous Boys Town Catholic orphanage in Omaha and other local sources and flew them to Washington DC and other cities to service the rich and powerful, notably unidentified officials in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations. Lobbyist Craig Spence held parties for the DC elite during this period, allegedly attended by CIA Director William Casey for example.

Some of the stories — e.g. Paul Bonacci — included Satanic elements, alleged human sacrifice, the CIA MK-Ultra mind control program, and other far out elements. Bryant minimizes discussion of the alleged Satanic elements even though he traces his investigation back to an assignment to write a “very dark” article on Satanism. Only a few paragraphs here and there deal with the Satanism aspect or Bonacci’s more far out stories.

Curiously enough the only clear CIA involvement in the Franklin Scandal in the book is that the Franklin Committee (yes!) hired former CIA Director (1973-1976) William Colby to investigate the death of Gary Caradori. Colby was a friend of John DeCamp. DeCamp had served with (or for) Colby in Vietnam where Colby was head of the controversial Phoenix Program, an alleged assassination program to wipe out the VietCong in South Vietnam accused of numerous crimes.

William Colby (CIA Director, 1973-1976)

Thus the Franklin Scandal involved CIA connected investigators accusing other business and political figures in Nebraska of working for/with the CIA in a nefarious sex and blackmail scheme. As the saying goes, you can’t make this stuff up.

List of CIA References in The Franklin Scandal

Although CIA involvement is central to Nick Bryant’s theory of the Franklin Scandal, the six-hundred plus page book actually only refers to the CIA in about twenty two short sections — often a sentence or paragraph. The most substantive references — claims of CIA involvement by Craig Spence, Henry Vinson, and Washington Times reporter Paul Rodriguez — are contained in the short thirty-six page chapter “Washington DC”,” pp. 275-310. Nick Bryant has another book Confessions of a DC Madam co-written with Henry Vinson, detailing Vinson’s claims.

Neither Spence, a cocaine addict who officially committed suicide, nor Henry Vinson, a now convicted felon who ran the escort service that provided young male prostitutes to Spence seem particularly reliable sources.

Again, remarkably, the only clearly documented CIA connections in the Franklin Scandal book are between the Franklin Committee and former CIA Director William Colby (see below).

p 9, “The Net was replete with stories of Satanists abducting children, and also of clandestine bonds between Satanists and the CIA.”

p 10-15, discuses the “Finders” case in which the CIA allegedly quashed an investigation into alleged severe child abuse by the “Finders” group, a controversial cult-like self-help group, in 1987. The book does not demonstrate a connection between the Finders case and the Franklin Scandal as far as I can tell.

p 17, quotes Larry King from 1988 issue of Omaha’s weekly Metropolitan claiming to know and admire the late Bill Casey, CIA Director in the Reagan Administration. (claim by Larry King who was convicted of embezzling about $40 million from the Franklin credit union)

p 18, “Though [John W DeCamp’s] Franklin Cover-up offered compelling evidence for the existence of [Larry] King’s pedophile ring and its cover-up by law enforcement, it lacked substantive proof for the ring’s connection to Washington DC, blackmail, and the CIA, and also the pandering of Boys Town kids.”

p 81, “The [Franklin] Committee members kicked around a number of names for a week or so, and at the suggestion of [Chairman Loran] Schmit they voted to invite former CIA Director William Colby to apply for chief counsel.”

“Since the credit union’s demise, several rumors were wafting around Lincoln and Omaha that Franklin monies had been covertly diverted to the CIA in its efforts to support the Nicaraguan Contras’ fight against the Communist Sandinistas.” (rumors)

p 82, “[Schmit’s] fellow Committee members shot down Colby’s appointment by a narrow margin — four to three.”

p 168-169, “[alleged blackmail photographer Rusty Nelson] didn’t feel compelled to convince me of the implausible events he discussed, which included allegations of pedophile politicians at the pinnacle of national power, Larry King’s CIA connections, blackmail, and the auctioning of children.” (Bryant describes Rusty Nelson as an untrustworthy character, having caught Nelson lying to him on several occasions.)

p 177-179, discussed Franklin Committee hiring former CIA Director William Colby to investigate Gary Caradori’s death and Colby’s own suspicious death in 1996 (officially an accident). Note hiring Colby is the only unequivocal, documented tie between the Franklin Scandal and the CIA. (documented CIA connection)

p 214, “[Boys Town counselor Dr. Leslie Collins] even held his elder stepdaughter at knifepoint for hours when she attempted to break off their [sexual] ‘relationship.’ Collins also threatened to kill her boyfriend if she ended her ‘relationship’ with Collins — she took his threats very seriously; he had previously disclosed [claimed] to her that he carried out covert activities for the CIA. Collins would ultimately be sentenced to thirty-to-fifty years for the sexual assaults on his stepdaughters.” (claim by a convicted felon trying to intimidate his victim, see references at end for Leslie Collins)

p 253, Discusses a rambling monologue by a witness called by special prosecutor Van Pelt for the Douglas County grand jury including the sentence: “Now, so I believe that Communism is a simplex theory, which has no practical application in reality, and Communists are lacking in judgment, and also that both the CIA and the three FDA networks are manipulated by double agents of the KGB.”

p 279, In discussing documentation from Henry Vinson’s gay male escort service acquired by Washington Times reporter Paul Rodriguez: “[Craig] Spence had ties to the CIA, blackmail and Larry King.” Apparently citing a New York Times article: “In fact, CIA Director William Casey seemed to be particularly fond of [Craig] Spence and his high flying get-togethers.”

p 282, “In some Japanese political circles, it was thought that the CIA had hatched the story [alleged leak of classified F-16 data to Soviets] to discredit [Japanese politician and Craig Spence associate Motoo] Shiina and nullify his rise to power.” (informed speculation)

p 287, “[Craig] Spence would divulge to Washington Times [owned by Rev. Sun Myung Moon’s Unification Church!] reporters that ‘friendly’ intelligence agents bugged all the parties at his Kalorama home, and he repeatedly alluded to the fact that he was in the CIA. ‘We had sources disclose that Spence wasn’t a direct employee of the CIA, but they confirmed Spence was a CIA asset,’ [Washington Times report Paul] Rodriguez told me [Nick Bryant]” (undisclosed sources)

p 290, “After [Craig] Spence threatened the [Washington Times] reporters with the razor blade, he launched into a protracted diatribe of self-importance, asserting he had carried out assignments for the CIA on numerous occasions — assignments that were crucial to covert actions in Vietnam, Japan, Central America, and the Middle East.” (Threatening reporters with a razor blade obviously raises questions about Spence’s sanity.)

p. 291, Discussing Craig Spence’s apparent suicide a few months later: “Next to Spence’s body on the bed was one final enigma: a newspaper clipping about then CIA Director William Webster’s attempts to protect CIA agents summoned to testify before government bodies — the Washington Times reported that Spence had indeed been subpoenaed by a grand jury investigating [Henry Vinson’s] the 34th Place escort service.

p. 293, “I [Nick Bryant] asked [Henry] Vinson two questions: ‘Were [Craig] Spence and [Larry] King partners in pedophilic pandering?’ and ‘Were [Craig] Spence and [Larry] King hooked up with the CIA?’ He reponded with an unhesitant, nonchalant ‘Yes’ to both questions.”

p. 296, 297 Vinson discusses his alleged dealings with Spence, King, and purported CIA “agents” or “assets”. (Vinson is a convicted felon.)

p 306, Strange story of an unidentified police officer source’s encounter with “suits” — “CIA, FBI or Secret Service” and Larry King during an investigation. (unnamed source, no mention of suits showing official ID to the unnamed police officer)

p 468, “However, [Washington Times reporter] Paul Rodriguez and his colleagues had [unnamed] sources state that Craig Spence was a CIA asset; Spence himself claimed he was a CIA asset and confessed that his home was bugged by “friendly” intelligence agents. Henry Vinson also told me [Nick Bryant] that Spence confessed to him he was a CIA asset and that his blackmail enterprise was CIA-affiliated.”

“Vinson claims to have informed federal officials that the pedophilic blackmail enterprise of King and Spence had connections to the CIA. The CIA has denied its affiliation to Spence, and Vinson is a convicted felon, …” (emphasis added)

p 469, Discusses CIA’s Operation Midnight Climax, part of the MK-ULTRA mind control experiments, suggesting parallels to the alleged King/Spence sexual blackmail operation.

p 473, returns to CIA and Finders case briefly.

p 499, Document Index, Documents — CIA inducing dissociation and MPD (Multiple Personality Disorder) p. 593

What Would Make the Franklin Scandal Book Better?

I found the semi-chronological order disconcerting, especially jumping back to before Gary Caradori’s death. Death after all is a final, emotional event, and suddenly realizing Caradori was back alive again several pages later confused me.

I would have preferred a strictly chronological order, perhaps with an overview of events at the very beginning. The wild goose chase with Rusty Nelson in which Bryant and Nelson were pulled over by menacing Nebraska State Patrol officers and their vehicle searched is discussed at the start of the book, perhaps as a mechanism to grab the reader’s interest and attention. This might be an effective opening hook, but then give a clearer timeline of events the book will cover and then move to a strictly chronological retelling of events. Any documentation or pictures of the search would have helped make the case for a cover-up.

Give a few paragraph to a few page introduction to each key character, especially the named perpetrators as soon as they first appear. Alan Baer’s name appears many times before the book finally explains who he is in detail. According to the index, Baer is first mentioned on page 114, as follows:

“Alan Baer, a prominent Omaha millionaire whom Caradori would link to King’s pandering network.”

Baer is then mentioned briefly six more times with little further info until pages 162-163 finally explain who Baer is and his relationship to the Brandeis department store family. He inherited the Brandeis fortune from his mother’s brother E. John Brandeis. As far as I can tell, Bryant never bothers to tell us whether the Omaha Brandeis family is related to the famous Supreme Court justice Louis D. Brandeis in some way. The Brandeis family members are not listed in the index either. This limited information on Baer is part of a general dearth of information on the alleged named perpetrators.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._L._Brandeis_and_Sons

The chapter “State vs Owen” is very long, 154 pages, longer than some books. It consisted mostly of an almost blow by blow, line by line recounting from the grand jury and perjury trial transcripts with editorial comments added. A shorter chapter summarizing the events and issues of the trial with the actual transcripts in the already 100 page appendix with supporting documents would be easier to digest.

The Franklin Scandal was quite complex with numerous players and events. Several tables of key people, events, and data would likely help. Specifically:

All Legal Charges, Convictions or Case Resolutions — who was actually charged and convicted of what. All in one place.

All Named Alleged Perpetrators, what they allegedly did, any convictions, and any other convictions or scandals that might speak to their character.

All Named Witnesses with any credibility issues such as criminal convictions, changed stories, drug use, etc. listed.

All Suspicious Deaths (there were several suspicious deaths in addition to Gary Caradori and his son), Official Cause of Death, Name, Date, suspicious circumstances.

Key Documented Financial Transactions, such as millionaire department store heir Alan Baer’s alleged payment of $12,000 to either Franklin Credit Union or Larry King personally. Documented financial transactions are frequently more persuasive than eyewitness testimony in “conspiracy theory” cases. Witnesses after all may be lying, mistaken, or even insane — all three are usually alleged in “conspiracy theory” cases as in the Franklin Scandal. Put copies of the checks in the appendix with the other supporting documents.

Conclusion

In the Franklin case, we have several witnesses with similar corroborating original stories, witnesses with significant credibility issues including recanting under interrogation, witnesses from multiple sources — social workers in the Nebraska foster care system and Gary Caradori who seemingly tried to corroborate the original foster care stories as a good investigator should, and now several more found by Nick Bryant. We have two competing conspiracy theories to explain the testimony and no solid forensic evidence — no pictures, video, or DNA. At this late date we are unlikely to get to “ground truth” even with a thorough, sincere, fair, competent re-investigation.

The bigger lesson is that — as in many “conspiracy theory” cases — often some people do talk, sometimes many, telling similar tales. Eyewitness testimony proves of little persuasive value in many cases. Eyewitnesses tend to be either participants in the conspiracy such as Henry Vinson and Rusty Nelson who inherently have a credibility issue or accidental observers who cannot explain in detail their odd experiences and whose credibility may be undercut by their attempts to explain their puzzling observations.

The many people who claim to have been involved in Satanic cults including ritual abuse and even human sacrifice in recent decades may persuade credulous evangelical Christians and miscellaneous others but have been largely dismissed by society at large even in cases with demonstrable bodies and other evidence of reality.

Multiple mutually supporting accounts can frequently be blamed on conscious or unconscious conspiracies by the investigators as with the Franklin Credit Union scandal and Gary Caradori: overzealous prosecutors, a vast right wing (or left wing) conspiracy, psychotherapists with leading questions, false memory syndrome, and other excuses. Often canceled checks for large unexplained amounts of money have been the most persuasive evidence of actual conspiracy in practice.

References

Peter Citron https://www.upi.com/Archives/1990/07/23/Columnist-gets-prison-terms-for-child-sexual-assaults/3097648705600/

Leslie Collins appeal of sexual assault convictions https://caselaw.findlaw.com/ne-court-of-appeals/1252943.html

Leslie Eugene Collins Nebraska sex offender registration https://sor.nebraska.gov/Registry/Offender/201009LCL

(C) 2022 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Video] “Conspiracy Theory” and Serial Killer Conspiracies

A brief followup to my video/article on the rationality of conspiracy theories. It is a common belief among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational. About 5-10 percent of “serial killer” cases involve murders committed by two or more people, a conspiracy. This is a quick and partial check on the official 14.7 percent of all murders in 2019 committed by multiple offenders, a conspiracy, according to the US FBI. Official numbers, including FBI and DOJ numbers, have been found to be misleading in a number of cases — hence independent checks are warranted.

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(C) 2021 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Article] “Conspiracy Theory” and Serial Killer Conspiracies

Serial Killer Conspiracies

Another brief followup to my article on the rationality of conspiracy theories. It is a common belief among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational.

The dictionary — as opposed to popular pejorative propaganda meaning — of “conspiracy theory” is simply a theory or hypothesis that some illegal or harmful event was caused by two or more malefactors working together. When surviving family, friends and neighbors, police investigators, news reporters or others suspect two or more perpetrators in a murder, they must consider a conspiracy theory.

The popular propaganda redefinition of “conspiracy theory,” the most straightforward dictionary phrase for a conspiracy theory, as “an irrational theory contradicted by evidence and reason” makes it difficult even to discuss and consider actual conspiracies in the modern world — not unlike the fictional newspeak in George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984.

A high fraction of events where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used to stigmatize suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are murders such as the assassination of President Kennedy or possible murders such as the suspicious “suicide” of financier Jeffrey Epstein where the suspected criminal conspiracy involves powerful persons such as high government officials, politicians, business leaders, or others. According to official FBI statistics about 14.7 percent of murders in 2019 were committed by multiple offenders, a conspiracy in common usage.

Almost twenty-seven percent (27%) of murders in 2019 were unsolved. Unsolved murders tend to be gang violence/organized crime murders, that is conspiracies that could not be proven. The larger, the more powerful, and the more secret a gang or organized crime group is perceived to be, the less willing witnesses are to come forward with testimony and evidence.

As a partial check on the FBI’s official numbers on murders with multiple offenders, I took a look at the frequency of conspiracies in high profile “serial killer” murder cases. Using the list of “serial killer” cases in The Big Book of Serial Killers, Volume 1, by Jack Rosewood indicates at least 5-10 percent of “serial killer” cases involve conspiracies — based on actual convictions of accomplices, forensic evidence of accomplices, accomplices not charged in the actual murders due to a plea deal, and similar strong evidence of a conspiracy. Unsubstantiated claims by the convicted “serial killers” of accomplices or a conspiracy are not counted.

The Big Book of Serial Killers, Volume 1, by Jack Rosewood, Table of Contents (TOC), Kindle edition, lists one-hundred and fifty (150) so-called serial killer cases. The cases are listed by the main perpetrator or perpetrators. Of these, six (6) are pairs of perpetrators. However, several more cases involved additional accomplices not listed in the table of contents. These serial killer conspiracy cases are listed in detail below. At least ten (10) cases involved two or more perpetrators actually charged or convicted by name, with thirteen (13) highly probable cases with strong evidence of one or more accomplice, and two possible cases of an accomplice or accomplices (John Wayne Gacy and Patrick Kearney).

Note that I am relying on the actual court cases and police investigations where accomplices were identified or strong forensic evidence of accomplices presented and not theories or weak evidence such as those found in sources like the book Programmed to Kill by the late Dave McGowan (not a relative) or Maury Terry’s The Ultimate Evil. In a few cases such as the Dean Corll and the Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez cases below there is credible evidence of larger organized prostitution or pornography involved in the case.

NOTE: TOC is an abbreviation for the Table of Contents, oo is used for clear cases with identified accomplices usually convicted of involvement, o for cases with strong evidence of an accomplice or an uncharged accomplice (e.g. Tyria Moore in the Aileen Wuornos case). Where the accomplices are not listed in the Table of Contents, they are listed in parentheses immediately after the case name used in the Table of Contents.

oo Paul Bernardo (and Karla Homolka) page 1 TOC, page 21
oo Kenneth Bianchi and Angelo Buono (Hillside Strangler case) page 1 TOC, page 26
oo Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy Lewis Norris page 1 TOC, page 39

oo William Bonin, page 1 TOC, page 50 (with 22-year-old Vernon Butts, as well as teenagers Gregory Miley, William Pugh, and James Munro. One of three “Freeway Killers” active in 1970’s California)

oo Doug Clark (Douglas Clark and Carol Bundy, “Sunset Strip Killers”) page 1 TOC, page 87
oo Dean Corll (with Elmer Wayne Henley and David Owen Brooks, “Candy Man,” “Pied Piper,” or Houston Heights case) , page 1 TOC, page 97
oo Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez page 2, TOC, page 180 (four sisters, large scale prostitution ring in Mexico, allegedly 91 murders)
o Patrick Kearney (with David Douglas Hill?) page 2, TOC, page 195 (Kearney’s gay lover Hill was originally charged. Kearney gave a confession exonerating Hill. A grand jury declined to charge Hill, nonetheless there is evidence Hill was involved in the John La May murder, probably other murders as well)
o Randy Steven Kraft (strong DNA and other evidence of one or more accomplices, also a “Freeway Killer”), page 3, TOC, page 214

oo Leonard Lake and Charles Ng, page 3, TOC, 223
oo John Allan Mohammad and Lee Boyd Malvo (“Washington DC Sniper” case in 2002) page 3, TOC, page 256
o David Parker Ray (with Cindy Hendy, Glenda Jean “Jesse” Ray (Ray’s daughter) and Dennis Yancy, “Toy Box Killer” case) bodies not found, page 4 TOC, page 307
oo Fred West and Rosemary West, Page 5 TOC, page 391

o Aileen Carol Wuornos (and Tyria Moore, never charged) page 5 TOC, page 404

UNPROVEN EVIDENCE OF CONSPIRACY

John Wayne Gacy, (with possible unknown accomplice or accomplices, Jeff Rignall, who survived an abduction and attack by Gacy reported another unidentified person involved, other evidence) page 2 TOC, page 149

THE BOTTOM LINE

Totals:

10/150 (6.67 pct) cases (conservative, actual convicted accomplices)
13/150 (8.67 pct) cases (includes Wuornos, Kraft, David Ray Parker, highly probable)
15/150 (10 pct) cases (includes Kearney, Gacy, maybe)

I was unable to substantiate some Internet claims that Donald Henry Gaskins — another serial killer listed in the Rosewood book — had accomplices. Gaskins name turned up in some lists of “serial killers” with accomplices or suspected accomplices.

It was not practical to check every name in the table of contents due to limited time. Conspiracy serial killer cases were identified from memory and verified or found with Internet searches for serial killer cases involving accomplices — comparing the search results to the list in the table of contents. Thus, a few additional “serial killer” conspiracy cases in the table of contents may have been missed in this analysis.

Conclusion

Thus, proven in a court of law or extremely likely conspiracy cases are a small but significant fraction, about 5-10 percent, of prominent serial killer cases — smaller than the 14.7 percent of murders with multiple offenders according to the FBI (in 2019). This is not surprising given the generally solitary nature of the crimes. Nonetheless, conspiracies are not exceptionally rare or unusual even in this type of murder.

References

The Big Book of Serial Killers, Vol 1, by Jack Rosewood
https://www.amazon.com/Big-Book-Serial-Killers-Encyclopedia-ebook/dp/B071K51FQ4/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

FBI Expanded Homicide Data Table 4: Murder by Victim/Offender Situations, 2019
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-4.xls

“Serial Killer” Conspiracy Cases

Note that the details of these crimes are quite unpleasant and are discussed in these references. The analysis in this article is only concerned with the proportion of cases that were conspiracies as defined in common usage — multiple offenders working together.

Paul Bernardo and Karla Homolka
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/paul-bernardo-and-karla-homolka-case

Kenneth Bianchi and Angelo Buono
https://allthatsinteresting.com/hillside-strangler-kenneth-bianchi-angelo-buono

Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy Lewis Norris
https://unhbcoe.org/en/Lawrence_Bittaker_and_Roy_Norris-0426802400

William Bonin (and 22-year-old Vernon Butts, as well as teenagers Gregory Miley, William Pugh, and James Munro)
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/01/07/Freeway-Killer-William-Bonin-convicted-of-luring-10-youths/3460977293230/

Douglas Clark and Carol Bundy
https://www.oxygen.com/mysteries-scandals/crime-time/carol-bundy-victim-mastermind-sunset-strip-killers

Dean Corll (with Elmer Wayne Henley and David Owen Brooks)
https://murderpedia.org/male.C/c/corll-dean.htm

Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez
https://justcriminals.info/2016/12/19/delfina-maria-de-jesus-gonzalez/

Patrick Kearney (and David Hill?)
https://criminalminds.fandom.com/wiki/Patrick_Kearney

Randy Steven Kraft and unknown accomplice or accomplices
https://murderpedia.org/male.K/k/kraft-randy.htm

Leonard Lake and Charles Ng
https://www.historicmysteries.com/charles-ng-and-leonard-lake/

John Allan Mohammad and Lee Boyd Malvo
https://stmuscholars.org/john-allen-muhammad-lee-boyd-malvo-the-dc-snipers/

David Ray Parker (and Cindy Hendy and others)
https://allthatsinteresting.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-killer
https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/albuquerque/items-david-parker-ray
https://www.thescarechamber.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-of-torture/

Fred West and Rosemary West
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/04/europe/fred-rosemary-west-murders-gbr-cmd-intl/index.html

Aileen Carol Wuornos (and Tyria Moore, never charged)
https://sites.psu.edu/harringpassion/2019/03/29/aileen-wuornos/

John Wayne Gacy and possible unknown accomplice or accomplices

https://theweek.com/articles/478154/did-serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-have-accomplices
https://newsfeed.time.com/2012/02/13/serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-may-have-had-accomplices/
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/02/10/attorneys-believe-gacy-had-accomplices/
https://www.oxygen.com/true-crime-buzz/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-went-on-a-personal-mission
https://www.archiweekend.com/viral-news/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-continued-an-individual-pursuit-to-stop-him-from-hurting-others/

Questions about Jeffrey Epstein “Suicide”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/autopsy-finds-broken-bones-in-jeffrey-epsteins-neck-deepening-questions-around-his-death/2019/08/14/d09ac934-bdd9-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.htmlhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/autopsy-points-to-possibility-epstein-was-strangled-reporthttps://channel933.iheart.com/content/new-evidence-suggests-jeffrey-epstein-was-strangled-dr-michael-baden/

Programmed to Kill: The Politics of Serial Murder, Dave McGowan, August 2004
https://www.amazon.com/Programmed-Kill-Politics-Serial-Murder/dp/0595326404/

The Ultimate Evil: The Search for the Sons of Sam, by Maury Terry, Introduction by Joshua Zeman
https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Evil-Search-Sons-Sam-ebook/dp/B08NFVHPP5/

(C) 2021 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

The Myth of Falsifiability Article

NOTE: This is an updated version of my presentation “The Myth of Falsifiability.” I have added a few comments on the application of falsifiability and falsifiability metrics to models of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main focus is on the safety and effectiveness of drugs and medical treatments and financial models of investments, but the relevance to COVID-19 models should be obvious. A video version of this presentation is available at https://youtu.be/6y6_6x_kmlY

The article starts with a discussion of the myth of falsifiability, a commonly cited doctrine often used to exclude certain points of view and evidence from consideration as “not scientific”. It discusses the glaring problems with the popular versions of this doctrine and the lack of a rigorous quantitative formulation of a more nuanced concept of falsifiability as originally proposed, but not developed, by the philosopher Karl Popper. The article concludes with a brief accessible presentation of our work on a rigorous quantitative falsifiability metric useful in practical science and engineering.

The scientific doctrine of falsifiability is key in practical problems such as confirming the accuracy and reliability of epidemiological models of the COVID-19 pandemic, the safety and effectiveness of pharmaceuticals and the safety and the reliability of financial models. How confident can we be of unprecedented world-changing policies ostensibly based on a plethora of conflicting models of the COVID-19 pandemic combined with highly incomplete and rapidly changing data?

How confident can we be that FDA approved drugs are safe, let alone effective? How confident can we be of AAA ratings for securities based on mathematical models?

In practice falsifiability is commonly cited to exclude certain points of view and evidence from consideration as “not scientific”.

The Encyclopedia Brittanica gives a typical example of the popular version of falsifiability:

Criterion of falsifiability, in the philosophy of science, a standard of evaluation of putatively scientific theories, according to which a theory is genuinely scientific only if it is possible in principle to establish that it is false.

Encyclopedia Brittanica

In practice, this popular version of falsifiability gives little guidance in evaluating whether an epidemiological model is reliable, a drug is safe or effective or a triple-A rated security is genuinely low risk. In actual scientific and engineering practice, we need a reliable estimate of how likely the apparent agreement of model and data is due to flexibility in the model from adjustable parameters, ad hoc changes to the mathematical model, and other causes such as data selection procedures. I will discuss this in more detail later in this article.

Karl Popper and The Logic of Scientific Discovery

The Austrian philosopher Karl Popper developed and presented a theory of falsifiability in his book The Logic of Scientific Discovery. This book is often cited and rarely read. My copy is 480 pages of small type.

Popper was especially concerned with rebutting the ostensibly scientific claims of Marxism and other ideologies. Popper was a deep thinker and understood that there were problems with a simple concept of falsifiability as I discuss next.

Falsifiability is largely encountered in disputes about religion and so-called pseudo-science, for example parapsychology. It is notably common in disputes over teaching evolution and creationism, the notion that God created the universe, life and human beings in some way, in schools. In the United States, creationism often refers to a literal or nearly literal interpretation of the Book of Genesis in the Bible.

This is a typical example from the RationalWiki arguing that creationism is not falsifiable and therefore is not science.

RationalWiki Example of the Common Use of Falsifiability

Remarkably, the doctrine of falsifiability is very rarely invoked in the scholarly scientific peer-reviewed literature, almost never outside of rare articles specifically rebutting the legitimacy of topics such as creationism and alleged pseudo-science. For example, a search of the arxiv.org preprint archive (1.6 million articles) turned up only eight matches for falsifiability and Popper as shown here.

Scientific and Engineering Citation of Falsifiability is Extremely Rare

In fact, there are many historical examples of scientific theories that could not be falsified but have been confirmed.

The existence of Black Swans, discovered in Australia. No matter how long one fails to find a single black swan, this does not mean they do not exist.

Stones falling from the sky, meteorites, were rejected by science for over a century despite many historical and anecdotal accounts of these remarkable objects.

Images of a Black Swan and a Meteorite
A Black Swan and a Meteorite

What experiment could we reasonably now perform that would falsify the existence of black swans and meteorites? Does this mean they are not scientific even though they exist?

The Hebrew Bible

Divine creation of the world and the existence of God are both examples of propositions that are impossible to falsify or disprove, but they can be almost completely verified by evidence that would be accepted by nearly all people as almost conclusive.

For example if we were to discover the Hebrew text of the Bible encoded in a clear way in the DNA of human beings, this would be strong – not absolutely conclusive – evidence for divine creation.

If the Sun were to stop in its course for an hour tomorrow and a voice boom out from the Heavens: “This is God. I created the world and human beings. Make love not war.” this would be reasonably accepted as nearly conclusive evidence of God and creation.

The Matrix: The World is a Computer Simulation

Of course, any evidence for God or any other remarkable or unexpected phenomenon can be explained by invoking other extreme possibilities such as time travel, super-advanced space aliens or inter-dimensional visitors, or a computer simulation reality as in The Matrix movie.

I am not endorsing any religion or divine creation in making this point. I am simply pointing out the deep flaws in the doctrine of falsifiability as generally invoked.

Fritz Zwicky and the Velocity Curves for the Triangulum Galaxy (Messier 33 or M33)

Let’s leave the world of religion and theology behind and take a look at the problems with falsifiability in mainstream scientific cosmology including the scientific account of creation, the Big Bang Theory.

In the 1930’s Fritz Zwicky, shown on the left, an astronomer at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) noticed that the velocities of the orbit of stars in our Galaxy, the Milky Way, around the Galactic Center failed to decline with distance from the Galactic Center as predicted by both Newton’s theory of gravity and Einstein’s more recent General Theory of Relativity.

The plot on the right shows a similar dramatic discrepancy in a nearby galaxy, the Triangulum Galaxy, also known as Messier 33 (M33).

These observations would appear to falsify both Newton and Einstein’s theories of gravity in a dramatic way. Did scientists forthrightly falsify these theories as RationalWiki and other popular version of falsifiability claim they would?

NO. They did not. Instead they postulated a mysterious “dark matter” that could not be observed that fixed the gross discrepancy between theory and experiment.

In the last century, numerous additional discrepancies at the larger scales of clusters and super-clusters of galaxies have been observed, leading to the introduction of additional types of dark matter to get the theory to match the observations. None of these hypothetical dark matter candidates have ever been observed despite many searches.

Hubble Space Telescope

Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity originally included an additional term, usually known as the cosmological constant, to prevent the expansion of the universe. Einstein is reported to have called this term his “greatest blunder” after observations by Edwin Hubble showed otherwise unexplained extragalactic redshifts that could be explained as caused by the expansion of the universe, what is now called the Big Bang Theory.

The observation of the red shifts appeared to falsify Einstein’s theory. Einstein quickly dropped the cosmological constant term, achieving agreement with the data.

The Hubble Space Telescope discovered evidence that the expansion of the universe was accelerating, something the General Theory of Relativity failed to predict.

The Cosmological Term

Did scientists falsify the General Theory at this point? NO. Einstein had chosen the value of the cosmological constant to exactly balance the predicted expansion which initially contradicted known observations and theoretical prejudices. By using a different cosmological constant, modern scientists could reproduce the acceleration found by the Hubble.

Einstein, right even when he was wrong! Modern cosmologists attribute the non-zero cosmological constant to a mysterious dark energy permeating the universe. So far the dark energy, like the dark matter before it, has never been directly observed.

The modern Big Bang Theory incorporates other as yet unobserved entities such as “inflation” as well.

The Martian Epicycle

In practice, it is almost always possible to salvage a scientific theory by postulating undetected and perhaps unmeasurable entities such as dark matter, dark energy, inflation, and the original Ptolemaic epicycles.

In the Ptolemaic Earth-centered solar system Mars orbits the Earth. Mars is observed to back up in the Zodiac for about two months every two years. This clearly contradicted the Earth-centered model. This gross discrepancy was largely fixed by introducing an epicycle in which Mars orbits an invisible point which in turn orbits the Earth as shown in the plot on the right. The ancients interpreted Mars as a god or angel and justified the epicycles as complex dance moves dictated by the king of the gods or a monotheistic God.

In mathematical terms, a rigorous quantitative theory such as the General Theory of Relativity or Newton’s Theory of Gravity is a mathematical formula or expression. Discrepancies between these theories and observation can be resolved by adding, subtracting, or modifying different terms in the formula, such as the cosmological constant term. These modified terms often correspond to hypothetical entities such as dark energy.

MOND Alternative to General Relativity with Dark Matter

Many alternative theories to general relativity exist. MOND or Modified Newtonian Dynamics is the leading competitor at the moment. It can explain many (not all) observations without resorting to unobserved dark matter.

In fact, many complex mathematical theories such as those produced by modern machine learning and deep learning methods can “explain” the observations in scientific cosmology.

This is not surprising because complex theories with many adjustable parameters like the cosmological constant are plastic and can fit a wide range of data, in extreme cases like saran wrap can fit almost any solid surface.

A simple example of this saran wrap like behavior of complex mathematical formulae is the Taylor polynomial. A Taylor polynomial with enough terms can approximate almost any function arbitrarily well.

The Fourth (4th) Degree Taylor Polynomial Fitted to Periodic Data

The plot here shows a Taylor polynomial approximating a periodic function, the trigonometric sine, better and better as the degree, number of terms, increases.

Sixth (6th) Degree Taylor Polynomial Fitted to the Same Periodic Data
Eighth (8th) Degree Taylor Polynomial Fitted to the Same Periodic Data
Tenth (10th) Degree Taylor Polynomial Fitted to the Same Periodic Data
All the Taylor Polynomial Models (Degrees 4,6,8, and 10) and Data in One Plot

The region of interest (ROI), containing the data used in the fit, is the region between the red triangle on the left and the red triangle on the right.

Notice the agreement with the data in the Region of Interest improves as the degree, the number of terms, increases. R SQUARED is roughly the fraction of the data explained by the model. Notice also the agreement for the Taylor Polynomial actually worsens outside the Region of Interest as the number of terms increases.

In general the Taylor Polynomial will predict new data within the Region of Interest well but new data outside the ROI poorly.

If agreement is poor, simply add more terms – like the cosmological constant – until agreement is acceptable.

This is why the Ptolemaic theory of planetary motion with epicycles could not be falsified.

Falsifiability Metric Table for Cosmology

Is Scientific Cosmology Falsifiable?

In real scientific practice, falsifiability is too vaguely defined and is not quantitative.

Falsifiability is not a simple binary, yes or no criterion in actual practice.
Rather some theories are highly plastic and difficult to falsify. Some are less plastic, stiffer and easier to falsify. Falsifiability or plasticity is a continuum, not a simple binary yes or no, 0 or 1.0.

Falsifiability in Drug Approvals

Nonetheless, the question of falsifiability is of great practical importance. For example, many drugs are advertised as scientifically proven or strongly implied to be scientifically proven to reduce the risk of heart attacks and extend life, to slow the progression of cancer and extend life for cancer patients, and to effectively treat a range of psychological disorders such as paranoid schizophrenia, clinical depression, and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD).

All of these claims have been questioned by a minority of highly qualified medical doctors, scientists, and investigative reporters.

Are these claims falsifiable? If not, are they therefore not scientific? How sure can we be that these drugs work? Does the doctrine of falsifiability give any insight into these critical questions?

Somehow we need to adjust the seeming agreement of models with data for the plasticity of the models – their ability to fit a wide range of data sets due to complexity.

Falsifiability in Drug Approvals

In Pharmaceutical Drug Approvals, the scientific theory being tested is that a drug is both safe and effective. Can erroneous claims of safety or effectiveness by pharmaceutical companies be falsified – not always it seems.

In the VIOXX scandal, involving a new pain reliever, marketed as a much more expensive super-aspirin that was safer than aspirin and other traditional pain relievers which can cause sometimes fatal gastrointestinal bleeding after prolonged use, scientists omitted several heart attacks, strokes, and deaths from the reported tallies for the treatment group.

This omission is similar to omitting the cosmological constant term in General Relativity. Indeed the ad hoc assumptions used to omit the injuries and deaths could be expressed mathematically as additional terms in a mathematical model of mortality as a function of drug dose.

Surveys of patients treated with VIOXX after approval showed higher heart attack, stroke, and death rates than patients treated with traditional pain relievers. Merck was nearly bankrupted by lawsuit settlements.

Vioxx: The Killer Pain Reliever Safer Than Aspirin
Merck Withdraws Vioxx from Market in 2004
Merck Stock Drops

Falsifiability in Financial Risk Models

Falsifiability of Financial Risk Models

Moving from the world of drug risks to finance: the 2008 housing and financial crash was caused in part by reliance on financial risk models that underestimated the risk of home price declines and mortgage defaults.

Many of these models roughly assumed the popular Bell Curve, also known as the Normal or Gaussian distribution. The Bell Curve is frequently used in grading school work. It also tends to underestimate the risk of financial investments.

Are financial models falsifiable? Not always it seems.

Falsifiability of Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Models

The public response to the current (April 12, 2020) Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic has been shaped by frequently complex, sometimes contradictory, and changing epidemiological models such as the widely cited Imperial College Model from the group headed by Professor Nell Ferguson as well as a competing model from Oxford — and many other models as well. There has been considerable well-justified controversy and confusion over these models.

Can we “falsify” these models in the popular binary “yes” or “no” sense of falsifiability? They are certainly imperfect and have failed various predictions, hence various revisions. Many key parameters such as the actual mortality rate broken down by age, sex, race, pre-existing medical conditions, and other risk factors have not been measured. The Imperial College Model is reportedly quite complex and may well be very “plastic” (not very falsifiable).

In fact, all or most of the models have been “falsified” in the binary falsification sense in real time as they have made predictions that failed and have been revised in various ways. Obviously a more nuanced measure, such as the falsifiability metric discussed below, is needed to evaluate the reliability of the models and compare them.

Falsifiability in Math Recognition

This is an example of the falsifiability problem in our work at Mathematical Software. We have a large, growing database of known mathematics, functions such as the Bell Curve and the Cauchy-Lorenz function shown here. Our math recognition software identifies the best candidate mathematical models for the data from this database.

The math recognizer yields an ordered list of candidate models ranked by goodness of fit, in this example the coefficient of determination, loosely the percent of agreement with the data.

The plot is an analysis of some financial data. On the vertical axis we have the percent agreement of the model with the data, One hundred percent is perfect agreement. Technically the value on the vertical axis is the coefficient of determination, often referred to as R squared.

On the horizontal axis is the probability of getting a return on investment less than the risk free return, the return from investing in a Treasury bond, about two (2) percent per year. This probability varies dramatically from model to model. It is a key metric for investment decisions.

Our best model is the Cauchy-Lorenz model, beating out the popular Bell Curve. BUT, what if the Cauchy-Lorenz is more plastic (less falsifiable) than the Bell Curve? The better agreement may be spurious. The difference in risk is enormous! Cauchy-Lorenz means a high risk investment and the Bell Curve means a low risk investment.

This problem has been encountered many times in statistics, data analysis, artificial intelligence, and many other related fields. A wide variety of ad hoc attempts to solve it have been offered in the scientific and engineering literature. For example, there are many competing formula to correct the coefficient of determination R**2 (R SQUARED) but there does not appear to be a rigorous and/or generally accepted solution or method. These adjusted R**2 formulae included Wherry’s formula, McNemar’s formula, Lord’s formula, and Stein’s formula (see graphic below).

Various Ad Hoc Adjustments for the Flexibility of Mathematical Models

The formulae do not, for example, take into account that different functions with the same number of adjustable parameters can have different degrees of plasticity/falsifiability.

In many fields, only the raw coefficient of determination R**2 is reported.

A Prototype Falsifiability Metric

This is an example of a prototype falsifiability metric illustrated with the Taylor Polynomials.

The metric consists of an overall falsifiability measure for the function, the value F in the title of each plot, and a function or curve adjusting the raw goodness of fit, the coefficient of determination or R SQUARED in this case, for each model.

The plots show the Taylor Polynomial A times X + B in the upper left, the Taylor Polynomial A times X squared plus B times X + C in the upper right, the 6th degree Taylor Polynomial in the lower left, and the tenth degree Taylor Polynomial in the lower right.

The red marker shows the adjusted value of an R SQUARED value of 0.9 or ninety percent.

As terms are added to the model the falsifiability decreases. It is easier for the more complex models to fit data generated by other functions! The Taylor Polynomials of higher degree are more and more plastic. This is reflected in the decreasing value of the falsifiability metric F.

In addition, the goodness of fit metric, R SQUARED here, is adjusted to compensate for the higher raw values of R SQUARED that a less falsifiable, more plastic function yields. An unfalsifiable function will always give R SQUARED of 1.0, the extreme case .The adjusted R**2 enables us to compare the goodness of fit for models with different numbers of terms and parameters, different levels of falsifiability.

Conclusion

Conclusion Slide

In conclusion, a simple “yes” or “no” binary falsifiability as commonly defined (e.g. in the Encyclopedia Brittanica) does not hold up in real scientific and engineering practice. It is too vaguely defined and not quantitative. It also excludes scientific theories that can be verified but not ruled out. For example, in the present (April 12, 2020) crisis, it is clearly useless in evaluating the many competing COVID-19 pandemic models and their predictions.

Falsifiability does reflect an actual problem. Scientific and engineering models — whether verbal conceptual models or rigorous quantitative mathematical models — can be and often are flexible or plastic, able to match many different sets of data and in the worse case such as the Taylor Polynomials, essentially any data set. Goodness of fit statistics such as R**2 are boosted by this plasticity/flexibility of the models making evaluation of performance and comparison of models difficult or impossible at present.

A reliable quantitative measure is needed. What is the (presumably Bayesian) probability that the agreement between a model and data is due to this flexibility of the model as opposed to a genuine “understanding” of the data? We are developing such a practical falsifiability measure here at Mathematical Software.

(C) 2020 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

How to Evaluate a Counting Statistic

A counting statistic is simply a numerical count of the number of some item such as “one million missing children”, “three million homeless”, and “3.5 million STEM jobs by 2025.” Counting statistics are frequently deployed in public policy debates, the marketing of goods and services, and other contexts. Particularly when paired with an emotionally engaging story, counting statistics can be powerful and persuasive. Counting statistics can be highly misleading or even completely false. This article discusses how to evaluate counting statistics and includes a detailed list of steps to follow to evaluate a counting statistic.

Checklist for Counting Statistics

  1. Find the original primary source of the statistic. Ideally you should determine the organization or individual who produced the statistic. If the source is an organization you should find out who specifically produced the statistic within the organization. If possible find out the name and role of each member involved in the production of the statistic. Ideally you should have a full citation to the original source that could be used in a high quality scholarly peer-reviewed publication.
  2. What is the background, agenda, and possible biases of the individual or organization that produced the statistic? What are their sources of funding? What is their track record, both in general and in the specific field of the statistic? Many statistics are produced by “think tanks” with various ideological and financial biases and commitments.
  3. How is the item being counted defined. This is very important. Many questionable statistics use a broad, often vague definition of the item paired with personal stories of an extreme or shocking nature to persuade. For example, the widely quoted “one million missing children” in the United States used in the 1980’s — and even today — rounded up from an official FBI number of about seven hundred thousand missing children, the vast majority of whom returned home safely within a short time, paired with rare cases of horrific stranger abductions and murders such as the 1981 murder of six year old Adam Walsh.
  4. If the statistic is paired with specific examples or personal stories, how representative are these examples and stories of the aggregate data used in the statistic? As with the missing children statistics in the 1980’s it is common for broad definitions giving large numbers to be paired with rare, extreme examples.
  5. How was the statistic measured and/or computed? At one extreme, some statistics are wild guesses by interested parties. In the early stages of the recognition of a social problem, there may be no solid reliable measurements; activists are prone to providing an educated guess. The statistic may be the product of an opinion survey. Some statistics are based on detailed, high quality measurements.
  6. What is the appropriate scale to evaluate the counting statistic? For example, the United States Census estimates the total population of the United States as of July 1, 2018 at 328 million. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates about 156 million people are employed full time in May 2019. Thus “3.5 million STEM jobs” represents slightly more than one percent of the United States population and slightly more than two percent of full time employees.
  7. Are there independent estimates of the same or a reasonably similar statistic? If yes, what are they? Are the independent estimates consistent? If not, why not? If there are no independent estimates, why not? Why is there only one source? For example, estimates of unemployment based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey (the source of the headline unemployment number reported in the news) and the Bureau’s payroll survey have a history of inconsistency.
  8. Is the statistic consistent with other data and statistics that are expected to be related? If not, why doesn’t the expected relationship hold? For example, we expect low unemployment to be associated with rising wages. This is not always the case, raising questions about the reliability of the official unemployment rate from the Current Population Survey.
  9. Is the statistic consistent with your personal experience or that of your social circle? If not, why not? For example, I have seen high unemployment rates among my social circle at times when the official unemployment rate was quite low.
  10. Does the statistic feel right? Sometimes, even though the statistic survives detailed scrutiny — following the above steps — it still doesn’t seem right. There is considerable controversy over the reliability of intuition and “feelings.” Nonetheless, many people believe a strong intuition often proves more accurate than a contradictory “rational analysis.” Often if you meditate on an intuition or feeling, more concrete reasons for the intuition will surface.

(C) 2019 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).