[Video] “Conspiracy Theory” and Serial Killer Conspiracies

A brief followup to my video/article on the rationality of conspiracy theories. It is a common belief among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational. About 5-10 percent of “serial killer” cases involve murders committed by two or more people, a conspiracy. This is a quick and partial check on the official 14.7 percent of all murders in 2019 committed by multiple offenders, a conspiracy, according to the US FBI. Official numbers, including FBI and DOJ numbers, have been found to be misleading in a number of cases — hence independent checks are warranted.

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[Article] “Conspiracy Theory” and Serial Killer Conspiracies

Serial Killer Conspiracies

Another brief followup to my article on the rationality of conspiracy theories. It is a common belief among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational.

The dictionary — as opposed to popular pejorative propaganda meaning — of “conspiracy theory” is simply a theory or hypothesis that some illegal or harmful event was caused by two or more malefactors working together. When surviving family, friends and neighbors, police investigators, news reporters or others suspect two or more perpetrators in a murder, they must consider a conspiracy theory.

The popular propaganda redefinition of “conspiracy theory,” the most straightforward dictionary phrase for a conspiracy theory, as “an irrational theory contradicted by evidence and reason” makes it difficult even to discuss and consider actual conspiracies in the modern world — not unlike the fictional newspeak in George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984.

A high fraction of events where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used to stigmatize suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are murders such as the assassination of President Kennedy or possible murders such as the suspicious “suicide” of financier Jeffrey Epstein where the suspected criminal conspiracy involves powerful persons such as high government officials, politicians, business leaders, or others. According to official FBI statistics about 14.7 percent of murders in 2019 were committed by multiple offenders, a conspiracy in common usage.

Almost twenty-seven percent (27%) of murders in 2019 were unsolved. Unsolved murders tend to be gang violence/organized crime murders, that is conspiracies that could not be proven. The larger, the more powerful, and the more secret a gang or organized crime group is perceived to be, the less willing witnesses are to come forward with testimony and evidence.

As a partial check on the FBI’s official numbers on murders with multiple offenders, I took a look at the frequency of conspiracies in high profile “serial killer” murder cases. Using the list of “serial killer” cases in The Big Book of Serial Killers, Volume 1, by Jack Rosewood indicates at least 5-10 percent of “serial killer” cases involve conspiracies — based on actual convictions of accomplices, forensic evidence of accomplices, accomplices not charged in the actual murders due to a plea deal, and similar strong evidence of a conspiracy. Unsubstantiated claims by the convicted “serial killers” of accomplices or a conspiracy are not counted.

The Big Book of Serial Killers, Volume 1, by Jack Rosewood, Table of Contents (TOC), Kindle edition, lists one-hundred and fifty (150) so-called serial killer cases. The cases are listed by the main perpetrator or perpetrators. Of these, six (6) are pairs of perpetrators. However, several more cases involved additional accomplices not listed in the table of contents. These serial killer conspiracy cases are listed in detail below. At least ten (10) cases involved two or more perpetrators actually charged or convicted by name, with thirteen (13) highly probable cases with strong evidence of one or more accomplice, and two possible cases of an accomplice or accomplices (John Wayne Gacy and Patrick Kearney).

Note that I am relying on the actual court cases and police investigations where accomplices were identified or strong forensic evidence of accomplices presented and not theories or weak evidence such as those found in sources like the book Programmed to Kill by the late Dave McGowan (not a relative) or Maury Terry’s The Ultimate Evil. In a few cases such as the Dean Corll and the Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez cases below there is credible evidence of larger organized prostitution or pornography involved in the case.

NOTE: TOC is an abbreviation for the Table of Contents, oo is used for clear cases with identified accomplices usually convicted of involvement, o for cases with strong evidence of an accomplice or an uncharged accomplice (e.g. Tyria Moore in the Aileen Wuornos case). Where the accomplices are not listed in the Table of Contents, they are listed in parentheses immediately after the case name used in the Table of Contents.

oo Paul Bernardo (and Karla Homolka) page 1 TOC, page 21
oo Kenneth Bianchi and Angelo Buono (Hillside Strangler case) page 1 TOC, page 26
oo Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy Lewis Norris page 1 TOC, page 39

oo William Bonin, page 1 TOC, page 50 (with 22-year-old Vernon Butts, as well as teenagers Gregory Miley, William Pugh, and James Munro. One of three “Freeway Killers” active in 1970’s California)

oo Doug Clark (Douglas Clark and Carol Bundy, “Sunset Strip Killers”) page 1 TOC, page 87
oo Dean Corll (with Elmer Wayne Henley and David Owen Brooks, “Candy Man,” “Pied Piper,” or Houston Heights case) , page 1 TOC, page 97
oo Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez page 2, TOC, page 180 (four sisters, large scale prostitution ring in Mexico, allegedly 91 murders)
o Patrick Kearney (with David Douglas Hill?) page 2, TOC, page 195 (Kearney’s gay lover Hill was originally charged. Kearney gave a confession exonerating Hill. A grand jury declined to charge Hill, nonetheless there is evidence Hill was involved in the John La May murder, probably other murders as well)
o Randy Steven Kraft (strong DNA and other evidence of one or more accomplices, also a “Freeway Killer”), page 3, TOC, page 214

oo Leonard Lake and Charles Ng, page 3, TOC, 223
oo John Allan Mohammad and Lee Boyd Malvo (“Washington DC Sniper” case in 2002) page 3, TOC, page 256
o David Parker Ray (with Cindy Hendy, Glenda Jean “Jesse” Ray (Ray’s daughter) and Dennis Yancy, “Toy Box Killer” case) bodies not found, page 4 TOC, page 307
oo Fred West and Rosemary West, Page 5 TOC, page 391

o Aileen Carol Wuornos (and Tyria Moore, never charged) page 5 TOC, page 404

UNPROVEN EVIDENCE OF CONSPIRACY

John Wayne Gacy, (with possible unknown accomplice or accomplices, Jeff Rignall, who survived an abduction and attack by Gacy reported another unidentified person involved, other evidence) page 2 TOC, page 149

THE BOTTOM LINE

Totals:

10/150 (6.67 pct) cases (conservative, actual convicted accomplices)
13/150 (8.67 pct) cases (includes Wuornos, Kraft, David Ray Parker, highly probable)
15/150 (10 pct) cases (includes Kearney, Gacy, maybe)

I was unable to substantiate some Internet claims that Donald Henry Gaskins — another serial killer listed in the Rosewood book — had accomplices. Gaskins name turned up in some lists of “serial killers” with accomplices or suspected accomplices.

It was not practical to check every name in the table of contents due to limited time. Conspiracy serial killer cases were identified from memory and verified or found with Internet searches for serial killer cases involving accomplices — comparing the search results to the list in the table of contents. Thus, a few additional “serial killer” conspiracy cases in the table of contents may have been missed in this analysis.

Conclusion

Thus, proven in a court of law or extremely likely conspiracy cases are a small but significant fraction, about 5-10 percent, of prominent serial killer cases — smaller than the 14.7 percent of murders with multiple offenders according to the FBI (in 2019). This is not surprising given the generally solitary nature of the crimes. Nonetheless, conspiracies are not exceptionally rare or unusual even in this type of murder.

References

The Big Book of Serial Killers, Vol 1, by Jack Rosewood
https://www.amazon.com/Big-Book-Serial-Killers-Encyclopedia-ebook/dp/B071K51FQ4/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

FBI Expanded Homicide Data Table 4: Murder by Victim/Offender Situations, 2019
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-4.xls

“Serial Killer” Conspiracy Cases

Note that the details of these crimes are quite unpleasant and are discussed in these references. The analysis in this article is only concerned with the proportion of cases that were conspiracies as defined in common usage — multiple offenders working together.

Paul Bernardo and Karla Homolka
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/paul-bernardo-and-karla-homolka-case

Kenneth Bianchi and Angelo Buono
https://allthatsinteresting.com/hillside-strangler-kenneth-bianchi-angelo-buono

Lawrence Sigmund Bittaker and Roy Lewis Norris
https://unhbcoe.org/en/Lawrence_Bittaker_and_Roy_Norris-0426802400

William Bonin (and 22-year-old Vernon Butts, as well as teenagers Gregory Miley, William Pugh, and James Munro)
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1982/01/07/Freeway-Killer-William-Bonin-convicted-of-luring-10-youths/3460977293230/

Douglas Clark and Carol Bundy
https://www.oxygen.com/mysteries-scandals/crime-time/carol-bundy-victim-mastermind-sunset-strip-killers

Dean Corll (with Elmer Wayne Henley and David Owen Brooks)
https://murderpedia.org/male.C/c/corll-dean.htm

Delfina and Maria de Jesus Gonzalez
https://justcriminals.info/2016/12/19/delfina-maria-de-jesus-gonzalez/

Patrick Kearney (and David Hill?)
https://criminalminds.fandom.com/wiki/Patrick_Kearney

Randy Steven Kraft and unknown accomplice or accomplices
https://murderpedia.org/male.K/k/kraft-randy.htm

Leonard Lake and Charles Ng
https://www.historicmysteries.com/charles-ng-and-leonard-lake/

John Allan Mohammad and Lee Boyd Malvo
https://stmuscholars.org/john-allen-muhammad-lee-boyd-malvo-the-dc-snipers/

David Ray Parker (and Cindy Hendy and others)
https://allthatsinteresting.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-killer
https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/albuquerque/items-david-parker-ray
https://www.thescarechamber.com/david-parker-ray-toy-box-of-torture/

Fred West and Rosemary West
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/04/europe/fred-rosemary-west-murders-gbr-cmd-intl/index.html

Aileen Carol Wuornos (and Tyria Moore, never charged)
https://sites.psu.edu/harringpassion/2019/03/29/aileen-wuornos/

John Wayne Gacy and possible unknown accomplice or accomplices

https://theweek.com/articles/478154/did-serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-have-accomplices
https://newsfeed.time.com/2012/02/13/serial-killer-john-wayne-gacy-may-have-had-accomplices/
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/02/10/attorneys-believe-gacy-had-accomplices/
https://www.oxygen.com/true-crime-buzz/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-went-on-a-personal-mission
https://www.archiweekend.com/viral-news/how-john-wayne-gacy-survivor-jeffrey-rignall-continued-an-individual-pursuit-to-stop-him-from-hurting-others/

Questions about Jeffrey Epstein “Suicide”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/autopsy-finds-broken-bones-in-jeffrey-epsteins-neck-deepening-questions-around-his-death/2019/08/14/d09ac934-bdd9-11e9-b873-63ace636af08_story.htmlhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/autopsy-points-to-possibility-epstein-was-strangled-reporthttps://channel933.iheart.com/content/new-evidence-suggests-jeffrey-epstein-was-strangled-dr-michael-baden/

Programmed to Kill: The Politics of Serial Murder, Dave McGowan, August 2004
https://www.amazon.com/Programmed-Kill-Politics-Serial-Murder/dp/0595326404/

The Ultimate Evil: The Search for the Sons of Sam, by Maury Terry, Introduction by Joshua Zeman
https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Evil-Search-Sons-Sam-ebook/dp/B08NFVHPP5/

(C) 2021 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Article] Some Murder Conspiracy Cases and Convictions

A brief followup to my article on the rationality of conspiracy theories.

A high fraction of events where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used to stigmatize suspicions of a criminal conspiracy are murders such as the assassination of President Kennedy or possible murders such as the suspicious “suicide” of Jeffrey Epstein. According to official FBI statistics about 14.7 percent of murders in 2019 were committed by multiple offenders, the common usage meaning of conspiracy. About twenty-seven (27) percent of murders in 2019, almost one third, were unsolved. Unsolved murders tend to be gang violence/organized crime murders, that is conspiracies that could not be proven.

FBI Murders by Offender Type in 2019

Some Murder Conspiracy Charges and Convictions from a DuckDuckGo search on August 29, 2021

https://www.nola.com/news/crime_police/article_2ae64e42-06b0-11ec-b6d2-d7d25c1344ca.html

10 charged with murder, conspiracy in fatal shooting of 12-year-old Todriana Peters

BY RAMON ANTONIO VARGAS | Staff writer Published Aug 26, 2021 at 4:01 pm | Updated Aug 26, 2021 at 4:55 pm 

Less than three months after a hail of bullets outside a graduation party cut down a 12-year-old girl and wounded two others, Orleans Parish prosecutors have filed felony charges against 10 men suspected of having a hand in the deadly Memorial Day weekend ambush.

https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/bronx-man-convicted-murder-robbery-and-drug-trafficking-offenses

Bronx Man Convicted Of Murder, Robbery, And Drug Trafficking Offenses

Audrey Strauss, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced that a jury returned a guilty verdict Friday against KASHEEN SAMUELS, a/k/a “Kash,” a/k/a “JR,” on five counts, including charges relating to the felony murder of Andrew Torres during an armed robbery, as well as other charges relating to robbery, robbery conspiracy, and narcotics conspiracy. U.S. District Judge Edgardo Ramos presided over the 9-day trial.

Man Convicted in Murder Linked to Mexican Mafia That San Diego Sheriff Helped Probe

by City News Service July 2, 2021

A jury has convicted a 24-year-old man for his role in the killing of a drug dealer in Placentia, an attack allegedly ordered by the head of a branch of the Mexican Mafia.

The 2017 fatal shooting, which San Diego County Sheriff’s investigators helped probe, resulted in the death of Robert Rios, 35.

Augustine Velazquez was convicted of murder, conspiracy, burglary and attempted robbery Wednesday in the killing.

Two New Jersey mobsters trying to overturn 1989 conviction for John Gotti murder plot
By DiMaiolo Santolo May 17, 2021

Two New Jersey mobsters trying to overturn 1989 conviction for John Gotti murder plot

Two aging New Jersey mobsters, who federal judges have denied to release from prison during the coronavirus pandemic, are now alleging their decades-old convictions for plotting to murder John Gotti and ordering the hit on a New York businessman should be overturned.

Attorneys for Louis “Bobby” Manna and Richard DeSciscio, who have both been incarcerated since 1989, said they filed motions in federal court this week outlining how cases that put the two members of the Genovese Crime Family behind bars was full of prosecutorial misconduct.

https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj/pr/long-time-leader-violent-grape-street-crips-street-gang-and-two-members-convicted

Long-Time Leader of Violent Grape Street Crips Street Gang and Two Members Convicted of Racketeering Conspiracy
Leader’s Orders Resulted in Four Murders and an Attempted Murder

NEWARK, N.J. – Three members of the New Jersey set of the violent street gang “Grape Street Crips” – including its long-time leader – were convicted by a federal jury today of racketeering conspiracy and a host of murders, shootings, and drug trafficking crimes, U.S. Attorney Craig Carpenito, FBI Special Agent in Charge Gregory W. Ehrie and DEA Special Agent in Charge Valerie A. Nickerson announced.

The leader of the enterprise, Corey Hamlet, a/k/a “C-Blaze,” a/k/a “Blaze,” a/k/a “Blizzie,” a/k/a “Castor Troy,” 41, of Belleville, New Jersey; and associates Tony Phillips, a/k/a “Blue,” 27, of Newark; and Ahmad Manley, a/k/a “Fresh,” a/k/a “Moddi G,” 32, of Summit, New Jersey, were convicted following a two-month trial before U.S. District Judge Madeline Cox Arleo in Newark federal court. The jury deliberated for four days before returning the verdicts. (A chart outlining the counts per defendant and maximum potential penalties is attached below.)

https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/newyork/press-releases/2013/yonkers-gang-leader-convicted-in-federal-court-of-racketeering-charges-murder-conspiracy-to-murder-attempted-murder-narcotics-and-firearms-offenses

Yonkers Gang Leader Convicted in Federal Court of Racketeering Charges, Murder, Conspiracy to Murder, Attempted Murder, Narcotics, and Firearms Offenses
U.S. Attorney’s Office July 01, 2013

Southern District of New York (212) 637-2600

Preet Bharara, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced that Steven Knowles, 25, was convicted today in White Plains of various racketeering charges, murder, conspiracy to murder, attempted murder, narcotics conspiracy, and firearms offenses following a four-week jury trial before the U.S. District Judge Kenneth M Karas. The jury convicted Knowles of charges arising out of his involvement, from 2000 through 2013, in the criminal activities of the Elm Street Wolves gang (the Wolves)—a violent street gang that was involved in drug trafficking and multiple acts of violence, including murder and attempted murder, in Yonkers, New York.

https://www.nj.com/atlantic/2021/04/court-affirms-conviction-of-pagan-biker-who-helped-plot-radio-hosts-murder.html

Court affirms conviction of Pagan biker who helped plot radio host’s murder
Updated: Apr. 27, 2021, 12:39 a.m. | Published: Apr. 26, 2021, 10:05 p.m.

The New Jersey Superior Court Appellate Division affirmed the the 2018 conviction of a Pagan biker who plotted the murder of popular radio host April Kauffman in order to protect a pill-dealing scheme he had set up with her husband, authorities said.

Three judges handed down the ruling on April 20 that the trial of Ferdinand ‘Freddy’ Augello, 65, of Petersburg, was fair and impartial, the Atlantic County Prosecutor’s Office announced Monday.

Augello was found guilty on Oct. 2, 2018 of murder, murder conspiracy, racketeering and drug charges after only a few hours of jury deliberations.

http://brooklynda.org/2021/07/01/fourteen-alleged-members-of-babiiez-gang-charged-in-81-count-conspiracy-indictment-that-includes-11-shootings/

Fourteen Alleged Members of “Babiiez” Gang Charged in 81-Count
Conspiracy Indictment That Includes 11 Shootings

Flatbush-based Gang is Alleged Subset of Insane Crip Gangsta
Nine Handguns Were Recovered During the Course of the Investigation

Brooklyn District Attorney Eric Gonzalez, together with New York City Police Commissioner Dermot Shea, today announced that 14 alleged members of the Babiiez street gang are variously charged in an 81-count indictment with conspiracy to commit murder, possess weapons and related charges. The indictment includes charges related to 11 shootings that resulted in eight victims – six of whom were alleged rival gang members and two men who were not rivals.

These are a few examples of arguably solved murders committed by conspiracies.

(C) 2021 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

[Video/Article] Are Conspiracy Theories Inherently Irrational?

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The belief common among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational is demonstrably false.

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[Article] Are Conspiracy Theories Inherently Irrational?

Are Conspiracy Theories Inherently Irrational?

The belief common among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational is demonstrably false.

Merriam Webster defines conspiracy as “the act of conspiring together” and conspiring as “to join in a secret agreement to do an unlawful or wrongful act or an act which becomes unlawful as a result of the secret agreement.” The dictionary gives a range of word meanings for “theory” including “a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation” which comes closest to the way “theory” is used in the phrase “conspiracy theory.”

The phrase “conspiracy theory” is used most often to mean “totally crazy conspiracy theory” or “conspiracy theory highly contradicted by the evidence” instead of the dictionary meaning of “conspiracy theory.” The phrase is often paired with “conspiracy theorist” and assertions that the conspiracy theory has been “debunked.” It is sometimes paired with the phrases “denier,” “denialism,” and “pseudoscience.” For example, “COVID denier” or “AIDS denier.”

“Conspiracy theory” is usually invoked to attack theories, evidence of misconduct, evidence of conflicts of interests, and even evidence of simple mistakes by authority figures in the group or groups — ethnic, professional, political, social — that the author identifies with or belongs to. In some case the author or authors using the phrase “conspiracy theory” are the subjects of the suspicions or evidence: https://thebulletin.org/2021/08/how-covid-19s-origins-were-obscured-by-the-east-and-the-west/.

“Conspiracy theory” is often invoked in discussions of murders or possible murders (suspicious “suicides” such as Jeffrey Epstein, accidents etc.) such as the assassination of President Kennedy or mass killings with actual or potential large scale political or economic consequences such as the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. A high percentage of “conspiracy theories” involve assassinations, mass killings, and other murders or possible murders. These include the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963, his brother Robert Kennedy in 1968, Martin Luther King in 1968, Malcolm X in 1965, US Senator Huey Long in 1934, the mysterious crash of TWA Flight 800 in 1996, the Columbine mass school shooting in 1999, the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the anthrax attacks just after the September 11 attacks in 2001 blamed on Bruce Ivins, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Conspiracy theory” is often paired with the explicit or implicit argument that “someone would have talked” and that an actual conspiracy could not keep its activities sufficiently secret to avoid prosecution or successfully organize a group, often implied to be large, of people covertly.

Conspiracy is recognized in common law and groups of people are convicted of conspiracy all the time. (UPDATE: August 29, 2021) See, for example, 18 US Code 371: Conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud United States

If two or more persons conspire either to commit any offense against the United States, or to defraud the United States, or any agency thereof in any manner or for any purpose, and one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy, each shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.

If, however, the offense, the commission of which is the object of the conspiracy, is a misdemeanor only, the punishment for such conspiracy shall not exceed the maximum punishment provided for such misdemeanor.

Some recent conspiracy convictions found with the DuckDuckGo search engine on August 23, 2021:

https://www.justice.gov/usao-ma/pr/sutton-man-convicted-cocaine-conspiracy

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/man-convicted-conspiracy-import-and-distribute-fentanyl

https://qctimes.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/two-iowa-men-convicted-for-conspiracy-to-distribute-meth-in-rock-island/article_ff3a06e5-1624-5016-a342-b59d7618aff4.html

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2333127480906/bronx-man-convicted-of-murder-for-hire-conspiracy-drug-trafficking-and-firearms-offenses

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/local/hamilton-county/2021/08/05/white-collar-crime-banc-serv-defendants-found-guilty-wire-fraud/5504238001/

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation’s homicide statistics for 2019 attribute 14.7 percent of the total 13,927 murders that year to “multiple offenders,” meaning a conspiracy in common usage even if the case does not meet the legal definition of conspiracy or conspiracy was not charged for some other reason.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-4.xls

The same table attributes 27.8% of these murders to an unknown offender or offenders. This is particulary significant because a high proportion of unsolved murders in the United States are attributed to “gang violence” or “organized crime,” meaning a conspiracy in common usage.

UPDATE: August 29, 2021

See, for example:

Chen, Elsa Y. “Victim and Witness Intimidation.” Encyclopedia of Race and Crime. Editors Helen Taylor Greene and Shaun L.
Gabbidon. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications (2009)

Community-wide implicit victim and witness intimidation has become particularly severe and widespread in neighborhoods dominated by gangs and drugs, including many predominantly African American and Latina/o inner-city areas. Asian gangs also engage in intimidation. A well-known example of implicit intimidation is a grassroots campaign known as “Stop Snitchin’,” which began in Baltimore around 2004 and quickly spread to other urban areas by several means, including CDs and DVDs, websites, T -shirts, and rap lyrics. The movement’s purpose is to urge community members not to cooperate with criminal justice authorities, and to remind them that “snitches wear stitches.” Gang members have appeared in courtrooms wearing Stop Snitchin’ T -shirts, provoking efforts to ban the shirts by judges and political officials. The success of the Stop Snitchin’ movement can be attributed in part to some community members’ anger regarding the high rate of incarceration among minority men, frustration over criminal justice authorities’ use of informants from the community and jails or prisons to facilitate the prosecution and incarceration process, and general mistrust of law enforcement officials, who often do not provide adequate protection for those who do cooperate and sometimes reward unreliable informants with leniency in prosecution or sentencing. The Stop Snitchin’ mantra is redolent of the Italian Mafia’s centuries- old code known as omerta, an oath of silence prohibiting cooperation with the authorities under any circumstances.

The culture and attitudes surrounding rap and hip hop music have perpetuated the practice of victim and witness intimidation and the implicit code of silence . Some well-known rap artists have refused to cooperate in criminal cases in which they or their friends or members of their entourages were victims or suspects. Other popular rappers have produced songs urging listeners not to speak with the police. The murders of several rap and hip hop stars, including Tupac Shakur, the Notorious B.I.G., and Jam Master Jay from Run D.M.C., remain unsolved because of witnesses’ unwillingness to violate the “code of the street” by speaking to the police or testifying in court.

END UPDATE

“Over 1,000 victims, 126 dead, just 2 convictions: 6 years of mass shootings in Chicago” By Tom Schuba and Andy Grimm, August 2, 201, Chicago Sun Times

https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2021/8/2/22559312/mass-shooting-victims-gun-violence-crime-cpd-police-department-clearance-murder-arrest

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/04/chicago-gun-violence-unsolved-murders-deadly-year

Online searches for gang violence and unsolved murders often turn up articles and official reports using the phrases “gun violence” and emphasizing the race of both victims and suspected perpetrators of unsolved murders, usually in so-called “inner city” neighborhoods. Nonetheless careful reading show these articles and reports are talking about unsolved gang murders often involving drugs or other illegal activities: criminal conspiracies.

Some Famous (or Infamous) Unsolved “Organized Crime” Murders

Arnold Rothstein — November 6, 1928 — reputed prohibition era mob boss and “mentor” of Charles “Lucky” Luciano, Meyer Lanksy, and other famous mobsters.
Benjamin “Bugsy” Siegel — June 20, 1947 — close associate of Lucky Luciano and Meyer Lansky
Albert Anastasia — October 25, 1957 — alleged mob boss and head of “Murder Inc.”
“Sam” Giancana — June 19, 1975 — alleged second in command of the Chicago Mob
“Johnny” Roselli — August 9, 1976 — alleged top figure in the Chicago Mob
Jimmy Hoffa — Teamsters Union Boss, disappeared July 30, 1975, declared dead July 30, 1982
John Favara — disappeared July 28, 1980, declared dead 1983, neighbor who disappeared after a car accident that killed mob boss John Gotti’s 12 year old son Frank Gotti. Favara was the driver of the car.

The history of organized crime in the United States is replete with many more unsolved murders and disappearances. In fact, people often don’t talk — at least not under oath in a court of law — and innocent witnesses often keep silent fearing retaliation from organized crime groups — conspiracies. Circumstantial evidence, suspicions, and rumors abound as is the case with murders such as the assassination of President Kennedy where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is invoked to ridicule and stigmatize those same sort of circumstantial evidence, suspicions, and rumors.

The empirical data from murder statistics and the history of murders is that criminal conspiracies are common — at least fourteen (14) percent of murders — and often escape successful prosecution. A high fraction of events where the phrase “conspiracy theory” is used to ridicule and stigmatize suspicions or even evidence of a conspiracy are also murders or possible murders: political assassinations, terrorists incidents, mass killings, suspicious accidents and suicides.

Are there high level international conspiracies?

High level international criminal conspiracies involving seemingly independent and even competing groups such as companies have been demonstrated in court in a number of cases.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Pfizer (yes the COVID vaccine company), and several other companies in Japan and Korea engaged in an illegal criminal conspiracy to fix the price of citric acid — a key ingredient of Coca-Cola and other sodas — and other food additives such as lysine in the 1990’s, probably beginning in the 1980’s or earlier. At this time, ADM and Pfizer dominated world production and sales of citric acid, an important and lucrative product due to its key rol in Coca-Cola and other sodas.

See for example:

https://www.justice.gov/archive/atr/public/press_releases/1996/1030.htm

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227645450_The_global_citric_acid_conspiracy_Legal-economic_lessons

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/3-540-34222-2_5

“Archer Executive Testifies to Fixing Citric Acid Prices” by Kurt Eichenwald, New York Times, August 13, 1998

“The Informant: A True Story” by Kurt Eichenwald, Crown, October 15, 2001

Rats in the Grain: The Dirty Tricks and Trials of Archer Daniels Midland, the Supermarket to the World, by James B. Lieber, Basic Books, January 10, 2002

Antitrust investigations have demonstrated several cases of international price fixing cartels for various products. Some price fixing arrangements are open agreements such as OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and the proration of oil production in Texas by the Texas Railroad Commission. https://rrc.texas.gov/about-us/rrc-history/

Governments can and do provide cover, sanction, and legitimacy for price fixing arrangements that would be illegal and criminal otherwise.

Do Cartels Get Away with Illegal Price Fixing Agreements?

Some would argue that because ADM, Pfizer, and the other conspirators were caught, they did not get away with the crime and this somehow proves no one is able to get away with a criminal conspiracy. This, of course, is demonstrably not true for unsolved murders. In contrast to murders, where the crime is usually clear due to a dead body and signs of violence, proving a rise in prices is a crime — is due to a criminal conspiracy is inherently difficult.

There are a number of cases of mysterious increases in the price of various products and services, circumstantial evidence of price fixing and collusion as defined in antitrust law. A notable recent example is the remarkable increase in the price of insulin, a product produced in vats using well established genetically engineered bacteria. There is no obvious shortage of a key ingredient or other explanation.

See for example:

https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/grassley-wyden-release-insulin-investigation-uncovering-business-practices-between-drug-companies-and-pbms-that-keep-prices-high

Despite widespread plausible suspicions, proof of an insulin price fixing agreement similar to the citric acid price fixing agreement remains elusive.

Another possible example is the marked rise in oil prices following a series of mergers of major oil companies in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

British Petroleum Amoco Merger: (August 1998): https://money.cnn.com/1998/08/11/deals/bp/

Exxon Mobil Merger (November 1999): https://money.cnn.com/1999/11/30/deals/exxonmobil/

Conoco Phillips Merger (November 2001): https://money.cnn.com/2001/11/19/deals/phillips_conoco/

Conclusion

Conspiracy theories are rational in many cases. Historical data on unsolved murders demonstrates that proving a conspiracy beyond a reasonable doubt is difficult however. Criminal conspiracies are NOT like laboratory experiments or astronomical observations. The belief common among intellectuals that “conspiracy theories” are inherently irrational or so unlikely as to be essentially inherently irrational is demonstrably false.

(C) 2021 by John F. McGowan, Ph.D.

About Me

John F. McGowan, Ph.D. solves problems using mathematics and mathematical software, including developing gesture recognition for touch devices, video compression and speech recognition technologies. He has extensive experience developing software in C, C++, MATLAB, Python, Visual Basic and many other programming languages. He has been a Visiting Scholar at HP Labs developing computer vision algorithms and software for mobile devices. He has worked as a contractor at NASA Ames Research Center involved in the research and development of image and video processing algorithms and technology. He has published articles on the origin and evolution of life, the exploration of Mars (anticipating the discovery of methane on Mars), and cheap access to space. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a B.S. in physics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).